Australia v India Fifth Test Tips: India worth a gamble batting first

Australia v India
Thursday 2 December, 23:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v India Fifth Test team news

Australia are 2-1 up with one to play. Two spots were up for grabs in their XI. Mitchell Starc, who had a back complaint, has been declared fit, though. Mitchell Marsh, who has had a poor series, has been dropped for Beau Webster, who debuts. It almost certainly ends Marsh's Test career.

Starc bowled through pain at the MCG with a back problem and it is a surprise he has been risked in a series-defining clash. Sean Abbott or Jhye Richardson were in line to take his place.

Australia XI: Khawaja, Konstas, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Webster, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Boland

India also have a tough decision to make. The brainless cricket played by Rishabh Pant in Melbourne was called out by none other than Sunil Gavaskar. Rightly or wrongly, Gavaskar's words tend to matter and Pant is easily swapped out for Shubman Gill to strengthen the batting.

KL Rahul could then take the gloves and India's decision-making, or obduracy, suddenly improves markedly. They don't lack for counter-attack options in Nitish Reddy or Ravi Jadeja with the bat.

As ever, Jasprit Bumrah leads a pace attack with only Mohammad Siraj alongside who can be trusted. Harshit Rana and Akash Deep have been poor. Prasid Krishna probably gets a game.

Possible India XI: Jaiswal, Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Rahul, Reddy, Jadeja, Sundar, Bumrah, Siraj, Krishna

Australia v India Fifth Test pitch report

There have been big first-innings runs at the SCG in recent past. Australia have busted 400 in four of the last five first match innings. But the visitors have done well, too. Noteworthy is India's 649-7 declared in 2019 when Chet Puajra and Pant hit big tons. Maybe that history saves Pant here. Australia followed on in that game which ended in a draw. Indeed, India were competitive in another draw on their last visit in 2021. Set 407 in the fourth they batted for 131 overs with Pant again in the runs.

The surface often takes spin although there hasn't been huge joy across two Shield games this term apart from a three-for for Adam Zampa. Nathan Lyon does have 22 wickets in his last five Tests, however.

This looks like a bat-first game, particularly with rain forecast for days two and three. More than 400 for either side should be very much on the cards at odds-against.

Australia v India Fifth Test match prediction

Australia are 1.8910/11 favourites with India 3.39/4 and the draw 5.509/2. The first thing to say is that we expect the draw to get short, close to odds-on, if we're right about runs first up and the forecasters are right about the rain. A simple back-to-lay is on.

Otherwise we're sweet on that India price. They do need to bat first, though. The SCG pitch should suit them and their spinners while a potential last hurrah on the road for Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma should focus the mind.

With better decision-making they should at least be level in this series which has ebbed and flowed nicely. There's not a big gulf between the two. Indeed, it could be wiped out with the Starc injury. Don't forget that with Josh Hazlewood out, Australia are far from full-strength.

Australia v India Fifth Test player bets

Pant's excellent SCG record and the need for a reaction after Melbourne may mean the 2/13.00 about a first-innings 50 with Sportsbook gets traction. This is a test of charcater for him but he's got a lot about him. Kohli and Rohit are 7/18.00 for both to hit a 50 in the same innings. One for those who like an emotional wager.

Usman Khawaja has a sensational record on this ground, averaging 160 in his last three. He has begun to find form and the 11/53.20 for a first-innings 50 is a potential bet. This could be a wicket where we back 50s rather than top bats because of its flat nature. Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne also have good enough records for that strategy with Sportsbook prices available.

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