India v South Africa T20 World Cup Final Tips: Saffers have nous to claim title

• South Africa the bet at 2.727/4

• But they must bat first at Bridgetown

• Clear signs of bias for teams to defend

• How does Kohli match-up against SA attack?

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India v South Africa
Saturday 29 June, 15:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

India v South Africa T20 World Cup Final team news

India overpowered England in Providence with a bristling, near-perfect performance. Not even a tricky surface slowed their juggernaut to the final. They will surely be unchanged as they aim for their first T20 title in the IPL era. India's surge and Virat Kohli's awful return may not be unrelated. He has barely scored a run as they have been unemcumbered by his potential for go-slow. Rohit Sharma and Jasprit Bumrah have been sensational.

Probable XI: Rohit, Kohli, Pant, Yadav, Dube, Hardik, Jadeja, Axar, Arshdeep, Kuldeep, Bumrah

South Africa were fortunate to bowl first against Aghanistan on a Tarouba wicket which was described as dangerous and unfair. The boot could have been on the other foot as the Afghans succumbed to an unjust 56 all out. But there is no doubt South Africa have shown nerve and gumption in this tournament. They've had plenty of opportunity to choke and not taken it.

Probable XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Stubbs, Jansen, Mahraj, Rabada, Shamsi, Nortje

India v South Africa T20 World Cup Final pitch report

In a tournament which has struggled for sporting integrity due to the scheduling and dodgy pitches, it is something of a relief that the final is at Bridgetown. The toss could still be a great leveller, though. Before this competiton began there was a 75% win rate for the side batting first. That trend has been apparent with three from six targets defended and Oman taking Namibia to a tie with 109 on the board.

In terms of first-innings runs, the surfaces have got better. There looked nowt wrong with the wicket when England and West Indies chased in double-quick time against the Yanks. Previously the Aussies posted 201 against England and India 181 against Afghanistan. We'd be happier to play India on the 20-over par line at 172.5. That might creep up, though.

The Betfair Sportsbook offer both teams to score 180 at 11/102.11 but do beaware that it's a bet which has won only four times in their 25 meetings and an incredible three times in 118 matches at the venue. Don't get suckered in by that type of market for this one.

India v South Africa T20 World Cup Final match predicition

India and South Africa are unbeaten in the tournament so something has got to give. The match odds market says it is the Saffers' record that will go unsurprisingly. India are 1.574/7 favourites with South Africa 2.727/4.

Our natural inclination is to get the favourite beat whatever the format. And T20 is, of course, perfect for upsets. Our comfort rug to do so is double-layered; the toss bias at Bridgetown and India's failure to get over the line when the pressure is on. We suspect the former is far more realiable than the latter this time.

South Africa are the bet, then, to defend. Of course India look in great shape and have few weaknesses but South Africa can match their batting muscle and may even argue that their bowling is not reliant on one star man in Bumrah. The head-to-head record is fifty-fity in the last game going back two years so it's not a mismatch.

There is a chance of rain for this one but it doesn't look heavy, or sutained enough to reduce overs. There is also a reserve day scheduled.

India v South Africa T20 World Cup Final player bets

Do the big-name (big game?) players come to the fore? Virat Kohli has an average of 10 in the tounament and Sportsbook offer 12/53.40 that he tops bat to end his worse winless run. He averages 35 against them with a strike rate of 138.

Suryakumar Yadav has a fine record against SA - with scores of 100, 56 and 68 in his last three. He is 4/15.00 and does qualify as win-rate value.

Heinrich Klaasen is nowhere near as reliable as Kohli or Sky in T20 for SA but he has yet to fire as well. Sportsbook go 10/34.33 that he produces. With the ball, Jasprit Bumrah has little to beat at 15/82.88 for top India bowler. Aiden Markram might be underrated at 17/29.50 for a big-price on top SA. He could well bowl in the powerplay and dead heat is a runner form. Remember, fewest runs conceded wins.

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