Giro d'Italia Stage 8 Tips: Girmay and Nizzolo to fight out honours

Jack Houghton
13 May 2022
2:00 min read

Giacomo Nizzolo is well-suited to this criterium course

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A circuit around Naples will suit the one-day riders, writes Jack Houghton, who thinks Girmay and Nizzolo are the value bets

"Mathieu van der Poel and Biniam Girmay dominated Stage 1, and although the test is slightly different here, it will nonetheless play to their punchy talents..."

1pt Back Biniam Girmay at 7.206/1

pt Back Giacomo Nizzolo at 28.0027/1

What's the stage like?

An unusual one for a Grand Tour, this is a 149km criterium stage, where riders will be asked to complete four circuits around the environs of Naples, before heading back to the city centre for the flat finish.

That finish is complicated, though, with an uber U-turn a kilometre out that will cause havoc if a large bunch approaches it.

Although the finish is flat, before riders get to that the course contains repeated short, steep climbs, meaning that it will be one-day classic specialists, and not the out-and-out sprinters, who are the most likely winners.

Who are the favourites?

It's hard to look beyond Mathieu van der Poel (4.2016/5) and Biniam Girmay (7.206/1). They dominated Stage 1, and although the test is slightly different here, it will nonetheless play to their punchy talents.

Of the pair, Girmay looks the best pick given the flat finish. Van der Poel will do his best to distance him before then, but if Girmay can hold his wheel, he will have the better sprint.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

A breakaway may take the honours, especially given the shortness of the stage, but they are unlikely to be given much rope with which to play by the peloton.

Better bets might be Giacomo Nizzolo (28.0027/1), who has had lots of success on the one-day circuit on courses like this, or Diego Ulissi (32.0031/1), who is capable of making a late breakaway stick.

On balance, Girmay and Nizzolo seem the best picks.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

Probably little. General Classification contenders will want to make sure they are prominent, and that no breakaway contains dangerous rivals, but most should survive the day unscathed.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Giro d'Italia 2022 P&L:
Staked: 13.5 Returned: 42.5 P/L: +29.00