Giro d'Italia Stage 3 Tips: Cavendish can get better of bashed-up Ewan

Jack Houghton
07 May 2022
2:00 min read

Mark Cavendish has re-established himself as the sprinter to beat

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With doubts around Caleb Ewan, writes Jack Houghton, Cavendish and Gaviria are Stage 3 best bets

"Mark Cavendish's three victories so far this season show he has lost nothing of his 2021 Tour de France revival form, making him the one to beat..."

1pt Back Mark Cavendish at 3.259/4

1pt Back Fernando Gaviri at 14.0013/1

What's the stage like?

Mostly flat, coming in at 201km, this is a day for the fast men.

There's a fourth category climb 13km from the finish that shouldn't cause the sprinters too many problems, but their teams will have to be alive to an opportunistic late breakaway effort. Assuming any of those attempts can be controlled, there should be no excuses: an arcing, right-hand sweep to the finish makes the last 5km a straightforward affair. The best sprinter should win.

Who are the favourites?

On recent form, that "best sprinter" is probably Caleb Ewan (3.002/1), who has picked up five victories this year already, most notably at the Tour of Turkey, where he kept the world's best behind him during two stage victories. There are reasons to be a little nervous of his chances, though. Whilst he's racked up some wins, he's also bombed on a few occasions where he shouldn't have. And his crashing fall on Stage 1 can't have improved his confidence.

Which means that Mark Cavendish (3.259/4) can probably claim the mantle of top dog. His three victories so far this season show he has lost nothing of his 2021 Tour de France revival form, making him the one to beat.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

The field is stacked, however.

A valid case can be made for Fernando Gaviria (14.0013/1), Giacomo Nizzolo (18.0017/1), Arnaud Demare (12.0011/1), Phil Bauhaus (15.0014/1) and Cees Bol (80.0079/1) - all of whom have traded places at various points during the season with the market leaders. Of those riders, Gaviria is the most interesting. The winner of four stages at the Giro in 2017, he's had a fallow few seasons but seems to be returning to something approaching his peak. He was strong in the Tour of Oman in February and, perhaps crucially, will likely cope with the late-on climb better than most of his rivals.

If a rider can pull off the late breakaway, it will likely be Diego Ulissi (200.00199/1). This course is a near copy of the Stage 13 that he won in 2020. The sprint teams should be aware enough of the risk to prevent any such move, though.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

It's another day to rest easy on our pre-race bets for the General Classification. Short of calamity befalling one of the main contenders, little of note should affect them.

*Odds correct at the time of writing