Giro d'Italia Stage 16 Tips: Jai ho Jai Hindley!

Jack Houghton
23 May 2022
3:00 min read

Jai Hindley has not being broken by Ineos yet

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A day for the GC hopefuls, writes Jack Houghton, who thinks Hindley can out-kick Carapaz in the race to the line

After a rest day, expect Hindley to be able to weather the onslaught and mount a late sprint to deny Carapaz

2 pts Back Jai Hindley at 9.008/1

What's the stage like?

The longest mountainous one in this year's Giro, it's 200km and features three category one climbs. Between them, they represent around 46km of climbing at an average gradient of around 8%, with plenty of sections that ramp up into double figures.

It's not strictly a summit finish stage, as after the final ascent on narrow roads of Santa Cristina, the course drops 300m in 6km, before a final kick-up to the line.

It's a day for the climbers, and the General Classification contenders should be to the fore.

Who are the favourites?

Richard Carapaz (5.004/1), Jai Hindley (9.008/1) and Simon Yates (8.6015/2) rightly share favouritism as the form riders in the race. Carapaz will have the help of his relentless Ineos team to set a high tempo, and this could well be the day that he rides away from Hindley and seals the Pink Jersey.

Yates showed on Stage 14, though, that he is back in the form that saw him as a near joint-favourite for the Giro before racing began, and his odds look more attractive than those of Carapaz, especially as he has the advantage of being unmarked, seeing as he is out of contention in the General Classification.

Hindley has showed no signs of breaking yet, despite the efforts of Ineos. I expect that day will come, but it is likely to be later in the Giro, when fatigue is more of a factor. After a rest day, expect Hindley to be able to weather the onslaught and mount a late sprint to deny Carapaz.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Any number of riders could break from the main bunch and take a solo victory here. The most likely are Giulio Ciccone (12.0011/1), Vincenzo Nibali (15.0014/1) and Hugh Carthy (25.0024/1). But on a day that is all about the Pink Jersey, the value is at the head of the market.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

It might be pivotal, or it might not be. With four mountain stages in this closing six days, the story is likely to be more epic than limerick. Although there was a young man from Ecuador...

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Giro d'Italia 2022 P&L:
Staked: 27.0 Returned: 59.9 P/L: +33.9