Superbowl Betting: Four wagers to make the night fly by...

NFL / Tareq Quiroz / 02 February 2008 / 1 Comments

TQ turns his eye to Sunday's Patriots - Giants clash and predicts big things for the Pats' Tom Brady...

It's the biggest, the best, the brightest and undoubtedly the showpiece in the US sporting calendar. Yes, welcome to the greatest show on earth! It may be an overused phrase and a certain PT Barnum may disagree with its accuracy here but there really is nothing quite like the hysteria that surrounds the Superbowl.

The Patriots and the Giants go head to head in what promises to be a cracking end to the season. There are lots of subplots in the build up to the game and if you can get to the bottom of them then it can only help you. Is Brady fit? Will the pressure of potentially making history by going 19-0 get to the Pats? Is Manning up to the job?

The Patriots have the pedigree and are clear favourites to take the Superbowl crown for the fourth time in seven years. They are better offensively, have the edge defensively and even have superiority on special teams. Not to mention that the Patriots are also unbeaten this season and beat the Giants in their only regular season clash.

That said, are the Patriots just a little too short in the market? For me the answer has to be yes and the your first bet of Superbowl XLII is to lay New England Patriots at anything around [1.22] in the Match Odds market. I expect it to be a tense and slightly conservative opening to the game as two teams with totally different attributes feel each other out. There won't be many points scored early on and there will be plenty of opportunities to trade out of your bet.

When trading on American Football it is key to have confidence in your knowledge of how a market will turn on any one given play. This comes over a period of time but the basics revolve around the scoring plays. The market will often overreact to an anticipated touchdown to such a degree that the odds will often not come in much at all when they do get the TD. Lay a team when they are in the red zone and you will not go far wrong.

There are a plethora of markets available for the Superbowl and with that comes opportunity. Brady will play and it is no secret that the Patriots are essentially a passing side so you have to check out the Brady Pass Yards market. The line is 305.5 yards and I am confident that Brady will surpass that. He has a wealth of top quality receivers to aim for and you can be sure he will pick them out with monotonous regularity. Get on Over 305.5 Yards as early as possible as it will only get shorter as KO approaches.

In a strange way it was the defeat to the Patriots in Week 17 that set the Giants up for the play-offs. They had New England down deep in the fourth quarter and will have taken great confidence in pushing them so close. They will take this into the big one on Sunday and you can expect them to stay within the 12.5pts handicap. The Giants with the start are currently [1.96] and that stands as the must bet of the match.

The final suggestion concerns the performance of Patriots star wide receiver Randy Moss. He has been strangely quiet in the play-offs whilst his team-mates have grabbed the glory. I would put this down to the Patriots using him as a decoy and with a plan to put doubt in the mind of the opposition. I am sure that in the pressure cooker of the Superbowl Moss will be the Patriots go to man and I fully expect him to receive close to 100 yards. The line is 75.5 yards and you should be left with no doubt that the only bet is a back of the Over 75.5 yards.

Some golden rules to follow are - don't get suckered in by anticipated touchdowns; early field goals really count for very little and will not alter the odds dramatically; and never never forget the importance of a turnover as the effect on the market will be dramatic and you need to be ready to react.

All that is left to do now is sit back and enjoy the show - you've got to love Superbowl night!

Comments (1)

1. Simon | 02 February 2008

   Giants have won ten on the road on the spin and cannot be ignored..take Brady out and it becomes a 50-50 game !