NFL Week 11 Betting: Pantomime time as Dallas go to Washington

NFL / Andy Richmond / 14 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Andy Richmond looks at three knife-edge fixtures this week in his NFL betting preview: Dallas at Washington, San Diego at Pittsburgh and Chicago at Green Bay.

Halfway through November and it's time for the first mention of the Christmas - the perennial pantomime that is the Dallas Cowboys. America's team have provided enough entertainment off and on the field to make their own festive production. This week they travel East to meet the Redskins at FedEx Field - the NFL's largest stadium.

Dallas at Washington

The biggest gamble that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones took this year was signing Adam "Pacman" Jones. Let's just say that the Pacman has had his brushes with authority in recent years and (Jerry) Jones' statement about signing him was that this was like "doing a high wire act without a net". And that really sums up the Cowboys season so far. They badly need the safety net now as their season is diving towards the ground.

Injuries, loss of form, various indiscretions and egos, this Cowboys team has it all. A 4-1 record through the first five games (the only loss came in a shock defeat at home to the Redskins 24-26) has now turned into 5-4, after suffering losses to the Cardinals, Rams and Giants. QB Tony Romo has been sidelined with a broken "pinkie" since the loss to Arizona and his deputy Johnson has managed a paltry 13.7 points per game. Add to that the decline in output that power running back Marion Barber has suffered - 54 yards against the Giants was the low point in this slump.

Romo looks like he will return this week but he will be directing an offence which is not firing at the moment and he will to need massage the ego of Terrell Owens this week. Since Romo's injury, T.O. has 12 catches for 100 yards and 1 touchdown. The Redskins defence is sure to feature pressing coverage on the wide receivers and plenty of pressure on Romo, who could be a little rusty after his enforced break

The 'Skins though have similar injury worries about their premier back, Clinton Portis, who is 50-50 to play. If he doesn't make the gig the Redskins' rushing offence, which ranks the 4th best in the NFL at the moment, will be severely limited. Portis' absence will handicap the home side's efforts to run a balanced offence and QB Jason Campbell is going to be put under more pressure to use WR Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley.

We are now reaching the stage of the season, especially in divisions as tough as this, where a loss can potentially be season ending. If the Cowboys lose here that 5-5 record will look like the end of the line for them, having traded as [3.7] favourites for the Superbowl as recently as five weeks ago. The pantomime won't have a happy ending then if they fall to that record whereas the Redskins still have a little room for manoeuvre.

Recommendation: Back Washington Redskins (with Clinton Portis) at [2.04].

San Diego at Pittsburgh

Here's another clash between two teams who, in all honesty, should be doing much better than their records show this year. The Steelers have done their best work on the road and not at Heinz Field, whilst the Chargers have just been inconsistent.
.
After being picked apart by the Saints' Drew Brees in the London game, the Chargers were quick to change their defensive coordinators before their Week 9 bye. That move brought about little change last week as the unfancied Kansas City Chiefs managed to throw three touchdown passes on this bottom-ranked pass defence.

The question is: can the struggling Ben Roethlisberger use that obvious advantage here as he has been fighting off shoulder and thumb injuries?

For me, the Steelers have enough balance to their offence and enough aggressiveness in their defence to trouble the Chargers here, and that will probably see yet another of the pre-season favourites struggling to make the post season.

Recommendation: Back Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) at [1.96].

Chicago at Green Bay

Since its formation in 2002, the NFC North has always been won by these two and they are currently only separated by a game, the team from the Windy City holding the advantage at the moment. There is a very current form line here, both teams being the unbeaten Tennessee Titans' last two victims. Having seen both games, I thought that the Packers pushed the Titans closer.

We know what we are going to get here - the Packers will pass, the Bears will run - it will just be a case of which defence can step up and perform their worst discipline well.

These two have met more times than any others in NFL history (175 meetings) and this 176th fixture is sure to be close. I'll go with the greater flair and home field advantage and back the Pack to get back into the NFC North race - the only way to the post season and to have hope in the festive season for these two teams is to win this division.

Recommendation: Back Green Bay Packers at [1.7].