NFL Betting Preview: The battle of the birds

NFL / Andy Richmond / 17 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

In one of the NFL's most improbable conference title games, the Eagles and Cardinals look to continue their astonishing postseason runs when they clash again on Sunday. Andy Richmond picks the best bets from a conference title game few would have anticipated at the start of the season.

Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Arizona (9-7)

Recent history points to the Eagles who hold a 48-20 decision over the Cardinals already this year and have become the biggest road favourite in a conference-title game since the 1979 Los Angeles Rams were 3½-point favourites at Tampa Bay.

Heading into the playoffs, many felt that the Cardinals didn't deserve to be in the play-offs, certainly didn't deserve a home game and were destined for a one-and-done finish. But this team changed and has become as dangerous as any in the play-offs. Similarly, the Eagles got through thanks to an improbable set of results.

Whilst not unrecognisable from the two teams that met on Thanksgiving Day, things have changed to the dynamics of both teams and while I expect the Steelers/Ravens match-up to be a carbon copy of their previous two meetings, I would be surprised if that was the case here.

What has changed?

For the Cardinals, they discovered a running game, via a rejuvenated Edgerrin James, and an offensive line which discovered the ability to open holes for James, all of this meant that QB Kurt Warner didn't have to rely on the excellent but one dimensional passing game. Secondly, they remembered that they did have the ability to stop the run and proved it against two of the best running attacks in the NFL, plus they created a turnover or two.

For the Eagles the truth is Westbrook got healthy down the stretch and McNabb is playing like the Pro Bowl QB he once was and will be again. The Eagles defense tightened the screws on its opponents in the last seven games, giving up just 85 points (12 per game).

Westbrook remains key to the Eagles hopes in this game and he gives the offence many different looks - watch Westbrook in the game and that may give you a clue as to what play the Eagles are going to run. McNabb needs to stay patient and use all of his play-off experience.

Arizona may have discovered their defence but they have always had a high octane and explosive offence and one of the features of this game is whether the Eagles secondary handle WR Larry Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald had two touchdowns against the Eagles in November and has been unstoppable in the playoffs with 14 receptions for 267 yards and two scores. Philadelphia will zone off Fitzgerald more than man him up, but even when the corner and safety converge on him, he still wins most deep jump balls. The Eagles have to put pressure on the veteran Warner, disrupting his ability to connect with not only Fitzgerald but his other main WR target Anquan Boldin too.

In getting this far, the Cardinals have silenced the cynics, stepped up on defense and discovered a running game. The Eagles have been tough and together, especially when defeating the number one seed. Facing the number four seed here will hold no fears for them.

This game is hard to pick as both teams have evolved since the first meeting, but I can't get the shutdown defence that the Eagles have been playing out of my mind. I'm always keen to side with great defence rather than great offence and for that reason the Eagles have the edge here.

Recommendation: On the road again but that road leads to Tampa via Arizona - the Eagles give up points -3.5 at 1.97 but take the prize.