NFL / Andy Richmond / 02 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Two of NFL's finest quarterbacks come face to face as Batlimore provide New England with a stern test. Meanwhile, can the Champions recover from their poor start? Andy Richmond selects the weekend's best bets...

"Simply put, slowing down Tom Brady, is the key to defeating New England."

Baltimore at New England

One quaterback dominates the NFL this week - Brett Favre and his first game against the Packers for some team in purple (well, I am a Packers fan) but at Foxboro on Sunday afternoon we get a chance to compare two other top class quarterbacks in the Ravens' Joe Flacco and the Patriots Tom Brady.

Flacco has started the season well but this will be his first game against an elite defence and it won't be easy for him to read a Patriots defence which revolves around confusing opposing QB's and forcing them into mistakes. A parallel could be drawn between Flacco and Matt Ryan, the Falcons quarterback who they held in check last week.

Simply put, slowing down Brady is the key to defeating New England. He seems to be getting better as he gets more game time. He missed nearly the entire 2008 season with a knee injury. His accuracy is improving, as is his ball placement. Brady has not lost his knack for recognizing what people are doing on defence.

This game two years ago would have been all about the much vaunted Patriots offence taking on the hungry, aggressive Ravens defence. There are still elements of that contest here but the balance has changed and the Ravens are much better equipped now, especially on offence.

The Patriots took a step toward reclaiming their elite status in the AFC last week, but this will be a severe test on all levels. The winner of this game will be the team that answers these questions the best: Can their defence take the physical pounding of Baltimore's run game? Will Joe Flacco make a mistake? Will Ravens coordinator Greg Mattison get a little more aggressive with his scheme to try to derail Tom Brady, as others have? The Pats seem to be trying to restore their run game -- for good reason -- but the Ravens have the best rush defence in the NFL.

This has the potential to be one of the games of the season so far and is tough to call.

Recommendation: I favour Baltimore. ½ pt win on over 44.5 points at [2.0]

Dallas at Denver

The Broncos enter this one as perhaps the most surprising member of the seven undefeated sides in the NFL; they are bidding to go 4-0 for the first time since 2003. The Cowboys have blown hot and cold this season, they were certainly cold against the Panthers on Monday night until half-time.

Denver's defence is quietly holding teams to under a touchdown per game. Of course, you could point to the schedule and the overall poor play within the AFC West and ask, "Are they really that good?", but we'll get a better idea after this contest. This will be a stiff test for the Denver defence. They have palyed good footbal but their overall 3-0 record is probably more a result of playing teams with a combined 3-6 record - it gets tougher from here. The Cowboys, even with injuries and a short week to contend with are ranked three in the NFL on offence. Denver don't have an explosive offensive unit, more a grinding one, and if the Cowboys get out in front early here, the shackles may have to come off.

The Broncos may have won the last three in this series but that streak may end on Sunday.

Recommendation: Cowboys in a close one - 1 pt win at 1.74

San Diego at Pittsburgh

The road hasn't been kind to the Pittsburgh Steelers this season. Maybe a return to Heinz Field will help. The Steelers try to avoid their first three-game losing streak in three seasons on Sunday night when they look to maintain their home-field dominance over the San Diego Chargers.

Coming off three-point losses at Chicago and Cincinnati, the defending Super Bowl champions Steelers (1-2) are off to their worst start since 2006, when they opened 1-3 and finished 8-8.

Finishing has been a problem for Pittsburgh; they have been outscored 24-0 in the fourth quarter of their last two games. With San Diego unable to contain the run, this seems like the perfect opportunity for Pittsburgh to rediscover its run game. I'm not sure the Chargers will be able to pressure Ben Roethlisberger enough to defeat him and he'll orchestrate a balanced offensive effort.

The Chargers have been struggling to run the ball and the offence is increasingly the responsibility of QB Philip Rivers - he leads the NFL in passing yards with 991. The Steelers must pressure him into mistakes.

The Steelers need to shutdown the Chargers and get (if fit), running back Willie Parker rolling against a team he has a history of big games against. In last year's AFC Divisional Playoff Game, he rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns - he's worth a bet for big rushing yards if he plays.

Recommendation: Home sweet home - 1 pt win Steelers -5.5 points at [1.96]

Tags: American Football Betting, Andy Richmonds, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Boncos, New England Patriots, NFL Betting, NFL Odds, NFL tips, Pittsburgh Steelers