The Betfair Contrarian: Why the LA Lakers won't win the NBA Championship

Basketball / The Betfair Contrarian / 02 June 2010 / Leave a Comment

The Betfair Contrarian believes Kobe Bryant is heading for Championship heartache

"Over the last three years, the Celtics [2.66] boast a 7-5 advantage in head-to-head encounters and they won the 2008 Finals series against LA [1.59] 4-2."

The Betfair Contrarian explains why the Betfair markets have got it wrong and the Boston Celtics are about to bring basketball's biggest prize back East.

The Contrarian, who contrary to comments made on his Eurovision story is neither Armenian or biased, silenced his doubters with an unprecedented week of profit. Flops by Crystal Bowersox in American Idol, Toomaline Jack in the Greyhound Derby and Azerbaijan in the Eurovision Song Contest completed a glorious treble of wins, and the in-form favourite layer is adamant that theres plenty more where that came from. This week he's opposing the LA Lakers in the NBA Finals...

Celtics have a huge Finals advantage

As you might expect of the two most successful teams in NBA history, the LA Lakers and Boston Celtics have met plenty of times before in the Finals. There have been 10 deciders between the franchises since the Lakers moved to Los Angeles in 1960 and the Celtics have triumphed in eight of those. That contrast in fortunes is reflected in both sides' overall Finals record. The Lakers have lost a massive 14 out of 24 (58 per cent) whereas the Celtics have only been defeated on three of the 20 occasions that they have got this far (15 per cent).

The conferences enjoy playing pass the parcel

The Lakers' bid to win successive championships is hindered not only by the fact that the feat hasn't been achieved since they last managed it in 2002, but also because there haven't been consecutive winners from the same conference since 2003 either. Over the last seven seasons, both the Western and Eastern Conferences have taken turns to claim Finals glory, and as the Lakers took the prize last year, it's now time for the Celtics to bring it back to the East.

Don't be swayed by regular season records

The Lakers status as [1.59] favourites is mainly due to their superior regular season win rate, but the statistics show that it's a mistake to read too much into that. After all, the Cleveland Cavaliers were the best team in the entire NBA during the initial campaign, and the Celtics have already ended their challenge with a 4-2 series win in the Eastern Conference semi-finals. There has also only been one instance in the last six years where the best Western Conference performer went on to win the NBA Finals.

The Lakers have no head-to-head edge...

The [2.68] offered on the Celtics looks even tastier when analysing recent clashes. The sides met twice in the regular season and the hosts lost both games by a point, with the Lakers triumphing 90-89 at TD Garden and the Celtics winning the more recent meeting 87-86 at the Staples Center. The Boston outfit also put up more of a fight in the match where they were beaten, as they were leading into the final quarter, whereas they were ahead throughout in their victory, only letting the Lakers close the gap in the final quarter. The travelling advantage is also to the benefit of the Celtics, who will play the part of visiting team four times if the seven-match series goes the distance.

...and little has changed since the 2008 Finals

Over the last three years, the Celtics boast a 7-5 advantage in head-to-head encounters and they won the 2008 Finals series between the two 4-2. The teams haven't changed much since then. The five men who played the most minutes in the last tie of that series for the Lakers are all still there (Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar) and the four most prominent Celtics players that day (Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo) are all still in the mix too, and as the Eastern Conference franchise came out on top then, there's no reason to doubt that they can do it again.