Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 25 June 2009 / 1 Comments

Wayne Bailey looks ahead to the three-day festival at Irish HQ where doubts over Sea The Stars' Derby participation have seen his price drift out to [2.0]...

I'm due to write about the Irish Derby weekend at the Curragh, but I woke up to read that John Oxx is not entirely happy with the ground, and has said that Sea The Stars' participation is 50/50. That makes my writing job difficult, but we've been here before, so one can only hope he runs.

The first piece of advice then is to only place your bets on the day of racing when the full line-up is confirmed. There's no point getting involved now and complaining later if your horse is withdrawn. I've said this before, but John Oxx always puts his animals first, and unlike many trainers, he is not to type to take a chance just because the race has a prize tag of €1,500,000. He knows there are other targets later in the calendar and if he does let Sea The Stars race, that would be a vote of confidence in itself.

On Wednesday, Oxx told the press:

"The weather is warm but it's also humid and there is not much wind so the course is not drying very quickly. It won't take a lot of rain for it to go against us, and we won't run if it is on the slow side of good on Sunday... We'd be disappointed not to take part - But we have to be fair to the horse. His reputation is on the line every time he runs."

Assuming he does run, is there any way the Epsom Derby form will be reversed? Johnny Murtagh has chosen to ride Fame And Glory but for this armchair jockey, Masterofthehorse was the O'Brien horse to take from the race. He ran on extremely well that day and a return to the Curragh will most likely suit the son of Sadler's Wells. Fame And Glory is reported to be 'coming on all the time' but don't forget that we heard the same about Rip Van Winkle. I said it at Epsom and I'll say it again - the form book is the man's best friend in these races, and I've found it best to ignore the noises coming from each stable.

If the form book is the man's best friend, my reading of that book says that Sea The Stars will win, and while his price is not as attractive this time around, I'd happily take any odds above [2.0] on the day of the race, in the unlilely event of such prices being available. He answered the stamina questions at Epsom and my own ratings have him roughly four pounds clear on Sunday.

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The three-day festival kicks off tomorrow evening (Friday) and Aidan O'Brien's Beethoven should be able to lose the maiden tag in the opener. He ran a bit green in the listed Chesham Stakes at Ascot, and hung slightly in the final stages. He'll have improved for that experience and while most of the field are unexposed, a step down to this level should see him right.

Saturday's Pretty Polly Stakes is a tricky one and Look Here has been chalked up as favourite in the early markets. I don't think it's a great betting race, but I'm interested to see how well or otherwise Lush Lashes runs having disappointed twice this season. She had plenty of ability as a three-year-old but just hasn't shown that same spark this season and she'll need to put in a big run to stop her once top rating slipping away.

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