Coral Eclipse Big Race Verdict: Back O'Brien dominance again over Gethin and Saddadd on Saturday

Constitution River sparkled at Chester

As one Constitution made the headlines yesterday, and yes we are never too far from another soul sapping Constitution Hill "will he race?" update, another, more daring horse is about to embark on the Eclipse quest (15:35 Sandown) for Aidan O'Brien.

Constitution River is the 8/111.73 favourite on the Sportsbook, and with two complete rags in a field of seven, playing for just two places with one so short has effectively ruined any sort of each-way punt. Playing for two places is all Aidan's fault.

The Group 1 is very much the preserve of Ballydoyle these days as Godolphin, even in their salt cellar depths of ammunition, have not one single mile-and-a-quarter horse capable of taking part, but Wathnan at least have purchased a horse who looks up to it.

Constitution River and Hawk Mountain go head-to-head again after the former scored in the French Derby last time. Earlier this week Hawk Mountain would have been the each-way play at double figures, but writing on Tuesday before O'Brien decided on Thursday regarding the Hawk was a pointless task, but he's stuck to his word and Hawk Mountain is in.

The general consensus of the Prix Du Jockey Club victory was workmanlike for Constitution River on good ground in France (Timeform rated it good to firm), but he was certainly more impressive on a similar surface at Chester in May winning the Dee Stakes.

The time was excellent on the Roodee, as it should be with a 7L score, but it was his final furlong that was deeply impressive. He ran a 10f part of 11.70 seconds off 102%, 0.52 quicker than the runner-up and the 11.70 was identical to the 7f winner at the end of the race on the same card (McMurray).

On Timeform figures, he comes out well on top and 6lb clear of his nearest rival, but that figure comes from his Dee Stakes victory rather than the less impressive Group 1 in France, and the Halifax massive rated that Chester performance as a modern day pearler - on a par with Golden Horn's Dante.

Is Hawk Mountain overpriced?

I hark back to my earlier comments, if we had eight runners, Hawk Mountain would have been the perfect each-way thievery bet at 13/27.50 with three places, but he has been on the drift on the Sportsbook, walking from 11/26.50 out to 13/27.50.

Hamburg plans were scrapped in midweek with the German Derby dream over, and the Eclipse it is.

He will need to improve on his bare form, though, and of course the second in the Prix Du Jockey Club, with a TF figure of 124, and that puts him behind both Gethin and Saddadd.

Groundwise; we could have a problem with Hawk Mountain. If the Sandown track commissars haven't gone beserk with the watering cans, I fear for him on genuine rattling fast going. His Futurity victory at Doncaster as a juvenile was on heavy, and his Beresford success also as a freshman was on soft.

Further back, his Maiden on second run was on good, good to yielding at the Curragh and O'Brien said after the race as a big rangy horse that he could be anything.

Wootton Bassett, sire of Hawk Mountain and also Constitution River is a class act but delving deep into this runners and preference ground makes for some interesting reading.

From 802 runners across all trips on good, good to firm he is 13% win and 31%. On good to soft, soft and heavy from his total of 343 runners across all trips it is far superior at 16.3% win and 33.5% placed, and digging deeper, literally, into just soft and heavy (excluding the good to soft) he is 17% win and 31% win and place.

We compare then to Wootton Bassett runners over 1m2f on good and good to firm - which stands at 15% win and 37% placed from 110 runners, yet it improves again for 1m2f good to soft, soft and heavy at 22% win and 35% placed.

The four-year-olds have to carry the weight

I got sucked into backing Raaheeb for Owen Burrows in last week's Irish Derby Big Race Verdict, and Burrows came up well short as Aidan produced another clean sweep in a Classic.

Burrows out for revenge part III comes up at Sandown, and Gethin's run against Ombudsman in the Brigadier Gerard was a career best by a long way. Just three starts back he ran in a handicap.

He is the son of 2020 Eclipse winner Ghaiyyath; and is very much lightly-raced and was clear of the rest when runner-up in the Brigadier Gerard over CD in May.

Gethin is one of only two who possess the Timeform 'p' and having diced with a race at 1m4f, has found his happy medium.

"He's got two options, either the Eclipse or Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. We'll let Royal Ascot go and see what happens there, then see what the ground is like at both Sandown and in France and have a chat from there," said Burrows after the Brig second to Ombudsman.

Saddadd also deserves a chance at a big race and his Timeform figure at 126 is a pound ahead of Gethin's and has a similar profile to Gethin in the sense of an older horse coming out of handicaps to progress to the top level.

Indeed, a win in the London Gold Cup at Newbury last spring off 95 was a launchpad to greater things and he also possesses Sandown form.

His Gordon Richards victory on Brigadier Gerard night in May wasn't a strong Group 3, and for his first try at the top level in the Tattersaals Gold Cup in Ireland last time, he can be considered a tad unfortunate as he was in a poor position throughout and far too wide into the straight.

Saddadd did run the fastest final furlong at 12.10 at the Curragh, but it's easy to achieve such a figure when the race is over.

Both four-year-olds are still to convince at the top level as Gethin needs to prove last time was no fluke and with the weight-for-age here against the Classic generation having such an advantage from 8-13, I have to stick with Aidan O'Brien for a fourth successive Eclipse.

Alan Dudman's 1-2 Verdict

5 (3)

Constitution River (Fr)

• J: Ryan Moore
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F: 211-11

• SBK 4/5
• EXC 1.89

We have a straight shootout then by my thinking and while wholly unoriginal, Constitution River on the Chester performance should have the beating of the field.

At 8/111.73 the price is not one that will make riches to shop for a clock in the workshops of Le Froy, but I've revisited the Chester win again and the way he moved up the inside to accelerate was so impressive and at 9f was the only runner to crack 12 seconds, likewise his final furlong as outlined previously.

We had some fun and games with going reports at Chester for their May meeting, but Timeform rated the going good to firm, and he shouldn't be inconvenienced by Saturday's going at Sandown, which could go pretty quick in the baking heat.

Boring, but a straight forecast or without Constitution market is the way to go, and hopefully Aidan is not going to sacrifice Hawk Mountain like he did with True Love recently, and as we always like to ask AI the most challenging of questions, it came up with "O'Brien has turned Sandown into his personal playground, and his current squad looks exceptionally tough to beat".

Good prose from the machine.

1) Constitution River

2) Hawk Mountain

Now read more tips and previews for Saturday here!