Irish Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Betting: Nicholls' Neptune can reverse previous defeat

005 Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 10 February 2009 / 1 Comments

After last week's washout at Leopardstown, they're getting ready to stage this big meeting all over again this coming Sunday. Wayne Bailey takes an early look at two of the top races on a fascinating card.

I'm sure you've all had that sinking feeling when your 'banker' horses crashes through the fence and your money goes up in smoke. I experienced that downer the last time Neptune Collonges ran in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over the Christmas festival, and it's always difficult to decide if you will follow the horse next time out if you've lost a significant amount of money.

I felt so dejected that I left Leopardstown straight after the race, although I must say that I was pleased for those who backed Exotic Dancer. But my biggest bet of the whole Christmas festival was on Neptune Collonges, and I still get a cold shiver when I hear his name.

When a 'banker' horse lets us down, we have to be careful not to fall into the old trap of believing the horse somehow owes us our money back, and I'm conscious of that when looking at Sunday's Irish Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown. Most commentators are in agreement that Exotic Dancer would have won the Lexus anyway, but I'm not so sure and I think it would have been a very close dogfight at the finish.

The two horses go head-to-head once again this weekend and at the time of writing, there's little between them in the market. From a statistical point of view, Neptune Collonges has a lot in his favour when you consider Paul Nicholls' excellent record in Ireland. Indeed, since 2003, he's had no less than 12 winners from 25 races, and anything he sends across the Irish Sea must be respected. However, you have to be careful with stats, and we can't simply pick and choose the ones that suit our selections. The past ten winners of this race for example, all had a Leopardstown win under the belt, so that's a strong tick in the Exotic Dancer box.

In some ways, I feel a bit sorry for Exotic Dancer, and he always seemed to live in the shadows - good enough to place, but not good enough to beat Kauto Star and the likes.

All throughout that time, the gelding was suffering back problems so perhaps it's now time to give him his due and appreciate his talent despite his troubles. As I write, it's just been announced that he'll head the weights in the Grand National, but his price of [80.0] on Betfair probably tells its own story. Cheltenham wise, I'm hoping they send him to the Ryanair this year as I think it would suit far better than the Gold Cup.

But with so many good horses in Nicholls' yard, Neptune Collonges has also had to live in the shadows somewhat, and it's worth remembering that this horse has an outstanding record of 13 wins from 23 races, and he's still only eight years of age. He's been unlucky at times and is always under pressure to prove himself - which, of course, is always the case down Ditcheat way.

Of course this race is by no means a match, with Notre Pere and The Listener set to play their part too. The latter horse is now ten years of age however, and while he still has ability at this level, I get the feeling that his best days are in the past. The former looks like a serious threat, and showed that he means business when becoming the first Irish-trained winner of the Coral Welsh National back in December. A few people have commented that he could be a serious Grand National horse in 2010 and I tend to agree.

But there's no point sitting on the fence, so I'm going to risk my money once again and make Neptune Collonges the selection. I think he'll have learned a lot from Leopardstown last time out, he will have come on for the run - and he can beat Exotic Dancer into second place by a small margin.

As mentioned, there's the risk of chasing lost money but I genuinely believe we haven't seen the best of Neptune; and with Denman and Kauto Star on the wane perhaps, now is the time for him to step out of the shadows. He's currently trading at [9.0] for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham and it will be interesting to see what effect a win will on Sunday will have on that market.

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Earlier on in the day, the Deloitte Novices' Hurdle may give some Cheltenham clues - as two of Willie Mullins' stars lock horns once again.

Cousin Vinny went off at [1.30] at Naas last time out, and while he done his job and won the race, he wasn't outstanding. Then again, he didn't have to be and in fairness, it was never a race that was going to tell us much. Hurricane Run is the only horse that has beaten Cousin Vinny and can do so again. He was superb when winning the Future Champion Novice Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas festival, and there's nothing to suggest that the form will be reversed on Sunday.

Comments (1)

1. Wayne Bailey | 10 February 2009

   UPDATE: Exotic Dancer has now been withdrawn.

   In my opinion, this makes Neptune a very solid bet indeed.