Irish Grand National: The betting trends to note

005 Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 20 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey goes through the statistics ahead of Easter Monday's big race at Fairyhouse

It's nearly Easter again, so that means it's Irish Grand National time. The problem with Grand National races is the laborious task of narrowing down the contenders to a manageable level. So where do we start looking when faced with 40 or more early declarations?

Trends.

There, I said it. I can almost hear "Off with his head" being shouted up and down the country!

All this week in the racing pages, reporters have found great delight in pointing out that a number of Cheltenham trends were smashed this year, and have been having a jibe at the anoraks that follow them.

I agree... to an extent.

Trends are there to be broken, and they get broken all the time. In fact, I was delighted to see Inglis Drever break some trends as I backed him with a tidy sum. But some trends are based on dubious research, and as Simon Rowlands rightly pointed out here this week, they are usually tested on "hopelessly small samples".

If ball number 18 came out in the Lotto five times in a row for example, does this give it a better chance of coming out next week? Of course not.

It's not as easy however, to spot false trends in racing... but if a horse has a number of notable statistics for or against him, I still believe it's right to take note. Some of the newspaper reporters failed to notice that the trend-breaking horses this year also had many positive statistics in their favour. And that brings me to my main point - relying on one trend alone is not enough.

Of course, horseracing has a funny knack of making us look like a complete Wally at times, but it would be no fun if we did not stick our neck on the line now and then. With that in mind, I'm producing my Irish Grand National shortlist based on what I believe are important trends since 1997:

Breeding
Each country breeds differently and it definitely has an effect on a horse. Only French- and Irish-bred horses show up as winners in the data, which I find noteworthy.

Weight
No horse carrying heavier than 11st 4lbs has won in the sample. Not good news then, for top weight Beef or Salmon.

Age
No horse aged 11 or more has won, and on the younger side, no five-year-old has won either.

Racing Post Rating
No horse rated 132 or less has come out on top

Official Rating
No horse rated less than 115 has won, but on the other end of the scale, horses rated 135 or more don't make the cut either - which probably relates back to the weight again.

Prices
Horses at the shorter end of the market (less than [9.0]) are not good value with no wins. That said, it's not a market for massive outsiders, with all winners priced [34.0] or less.

As mentioned, horses can and do break trends, so I'm going to be extra strict and only dismissing horses that fall foul of at least two of the above rules. That cuts the field to about half, and a more manageable level.

So what about positive trends?

Last time out
Half of the sample finished fourth or better last time out.

Days since last run
All ten winners had run in the previous seven weeks.

At this stage, I risk turning it into a system, so I'll list the remaining contenders now:

• Ballistraw
• Alexander Taipan
• Mattock Ranger
• Preists Leap
• Well Tutored
• Kilcrea Castle
• Ballycullen Boy
• Barrow Drive
• Oodachee
• A New Story
• Well Run
• He's On His Way

Out of that lot, Alexander Taipan makes most appeal. He's a good stayer, and the slower pace of this race should suit him fine. Others that can make the frame are Priests Leap, Ballycullen Boy, Well Tutored and Barrow Drive. With five places up for grabs, it's worth having at least two on side in both win and place markets.

So there you have it, the top five Irish National horses! Will history repeat itself?

Tune in on Monday to find out!