Betfair Official Blog

Horseracing Betting: Irish Champion Stakes Preview

Click here to view market

Big Duke man Wayne Bailey looks ahead to Saturday's action at Leopardstown...

As I sit in my Dublin home writing (late on Wednesday night), it's raining once again.

Unfortunately, this is bad news for my ante-post bet on Duke Of Marmalade in Saturday's Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. Indeed, O'Brien's five-time group one winner hit a high of [4.1] on Betfair today for small money and that suggests his participation may even be in doubt.

At the time of writing, New Approach trades at evens but if the rain holds off, this could be one of the best races on the Irish calendar this year.

It takes a top horse to claim this prize, and the list of previous winners include Dylan Thomas, High Chaparral, Fantastic Light, Giant's Causeway, Dr Devious and Saddler's Wells to name just a few. Here's a look at the main contenders for Saturday's 2008 renewal...

New Approach

Am I the only one in this world who thinks this horse gets hyped up too much? Regular readers will know I opposed him a couple of times this year, and was justified in doing so. Jim Bolger states that we'll see a different horse than in the Juddmonte at Newmarket, but I believe he's too short at his current price of [2.1]. I'm going to stick my neck on the block and suggest a lay. OK, he won the Derby, so he's pretty special - but let's call a spade a spade - excluding that race, his season of places has been somewhat disappointing and he's failed at the business end each time.

Duke Of Marmalade

Last year, 'The Duke' came second in this race to stablemate Dylan Thomas, but he's a horse that has really come into his own as a four-year-old. I truly believe that O'Brien has an all time great on his hands here, and as mentioned, the ground is my one and only concern. His Juddmonte performance was a typical display of the huge heart he shows, and the Racing Post review of the race sums it up best:
"Speed, stamina, a determined attitude, he has it all."
If he runs, he should win.

King Of Rome

Despite the heavy ground, King Of Rome managed to win the Group 2 Royal Whip Stakes last time out here in decisive style, and confirmed his versatility. O'Brien is already in hot water over so-called team tactics so it will be interesting to see what sort of pace his other horses will go off at. Being realistic, he can probably hope for a place at best.

Multidimensional

His best win to date is the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville, but that was two years ago, and it's fair to say he's struggled somewhat at top level since. To give him some credit, his win last time out in a Group 3 at Haydock showed that old spark of class once again, but we have to be realistic and I'd be amazed if he finds himself in the winners' enclosure at Leopards town.

Verdict:

It's no secret here that I'm a massive Duke Of Marmalade fan, and both the head and the heart tell me that he'll win on Saturday if he actually gets to run. If he doesn't make it to the Foxrock venue, I'll leave this race alone, as New Approach is a horse I've always distrusted.

PS...
I've just looked out the window and the skies have cleared - fingers crossed for the next few days!

PPS...
On Sunday, Henrythenavigator should have plenty in hand in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp. Goldikova will give him plenty to do, but I expect O'Brien's Guineas star to do the business and complete a good weekend for Ballydoyle.