York Ebor / Geoffrey Riddle / 19 August 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

As the dust settles after Sea The Stars sensational victory, our man is back in the hotseat to bring you all the big race build up, market movements and updates from around the Knavesmire. Email him your thoughts, questions and tips on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

4.55pm
So there we have it. Another Ebor, another year. Changingoftheguard is now 6-1 with many high street bookies for the St Leger after that fast-finishing performance behind Sesenta. On Betfair the price is [11.0].

Remember though that Aidan O'Brien has Age Of Aquarius also in the Classic, who must rate a decent chance and is trading at [5.2].

So farewell for another day from the Knavesmire. I'm off to enjoy the rest of the sunshine. It is supposed to rain tonight, and if it doesn't, clerk of the course William Derby is going to water. Between 4-6mms he said. Either way, you'll be hard pressed to beat Sariska in tomorrow's Yorkshire Oaks, whatever the weather.

4.40pm result:
1: Shamwari Lodge
2: Paquerettza
3: Silver Games
Time: 1.36.60
Shamwari Lodge certainly got home there. She eased into the lead in the final furlong and put the race quickly to bed. Richard Hughes even eased up a bit.
Amy Scott didn't ride Flapper how I had hoped. Shame.

4.35pm:
Tony Coleman, the PR man for Paddy Power, was the only PR representative to come up with a guide price for Sesenta in the Cesarewitch. Having spoken to his trading floor, he reckons that his firm would make her a 10-1 shot for the 2m2f contest at Newmarket.

"She can't go up much in the handicap," said Coleman. "She only just beat Changinoftheguard by a head, so the handicapper's hands are tied.
"She's also proved that she is better over further, when she ran so well at Royal Ascot and she shows she can handle these big field handicaps well."

Coleman was quick to add a caveat though. "Beware a filly or mare in autumn though. They do funny things."

4.30pm
Shamwari Lodge was part of the forecast that did us a very good turn three weeks ago at Glorious Goodwood. That race was over seven furlongs though, and I'm not sure whether the filly will last home over a mile with such a big weight. she's just been given the prize for the best turned out, if that is any guide for you.

The Godolphin filly, Burgundy Ice would be of interest, especially as she started as favourite for a Listed event as a juvenile, and there should be plenty to come.

I've chucked a few quid at Flapper though. You may well say that it is an appropriate term. But she is rated not far off the best of these, and she is almost guaranteed to race handy, something that has proved crucial this afternoon. The wind has certainly died down, but it hasn't gone.

4.05pm:
1: Star Rover
2: Mister Manannan
3: Love Lockdown
We said earlier in the day that records would tumble. Star Rover, who boasts four wins now in ten career starts, just broke the track record. It was set by Lyric Fantasy, one of the greatest sprinter Britain has seen, in 1992. Says a lot about a tailwind and good to firm ground, doesn't it.

4pm:
Fall out from Sesenta's Ebor victory. The mare stands at just 15 hands, according to trainer Willie Mullins. Now that might not mean much to you, but it is an indication that the winning mare is small.

"We need to look at handicaps where she will get in on a featherweight," said Mullins.
The genial Irishman suggested that the Cesarewitch might be the target for her. More in a moment.

Love Lockdown was the pick of the paddock, and won the prize for the best turned out. I can't have Mister Manannan. I think he was lucky last time out. Lay it or back Love Lockdown? Hmmmm.

Ebor result:
1: Sesenta
2: Changingoftheguard
3: Hits Only Vic
4: Nanton
Time: 2.57.52
I think it would be churlish to say that I told you so. Changingoftheguard ran a massive race, although jockey Jonny Murtagh probably could have positioned himself better throughout the race. He weaved his way through and just couldn't get up in time.

3.20pm
Just before I went to University, I had one of the biggest bets of my young life up until then. I considered Medicean one of the best milers I had ever seen. I had £50 on it to win the John Smith's Cup, safe in the knowledge that it WAS a Group horse in a handicap. As you all probably know, he got stuffed.

I'm not going to make the same mistake again. Changingoftheguard is by far the best horse in the Ebor. His monster time in the Ulster Derby last time out was immense, and Aidan O'Brien has been plotting to win this race with the horse ever since. But there are 18 rivals for him to take on, and at [3.15] on Betfair - around about a 30% chance, I just can't back it.

"What's better than Changingofhteguard?" Finlay asks. Well, nothing. But there are a few in there who could improve, and who are bigger prices in what is essentially an inexact science.

Yes Mr President ran pretty well in the first race, as did Drill Sergeant in the Lonsdale. That suggests that the form of Manyriverstocross and Precision Break, who beat those horses at Goodwood, is better than it was this morning before racing.

As such, we know more now, and although I like Precision Break, there has to be some sort of doubt about whether he can act on this going.

That's it then. Manyriverstocross. It was the selection of my landlord this morning, too...

2.50pm result - Gimcrack Stakes
1: Showcasing
2: Taajub
Jimmy Fortune didn't ride the winner as prominently as I was hoping, but at the halfway stage I didn't feel the need to lay off. It didn't help that I couldn't win the fastest finger first round on Monsieur Chevalier though. Richard Hannon's stable star traded at [2.7], which was nowhere near to where I got trying to lay off. Too much in-running trading is always a bad thing. Army men will know the phrase: "Selection and maintenance of the aim." It's a good mantra to live by.

2.45pm
Jimmy Fortune had somehow avoided going outside before the first race. When he entered the paddock, he was accosted by Chris, Betfair's audio man who does the clips for Timeform radio. He asked whether Fortune might ride Showcasing, the [3.25] favourite for the Gimcrack, more prominently due to the tailwind.

Fortune walked over to the edge of the paddock, and put his head into the wind. He smiled. Hopefully, he would have taken note, because all the other jockeys have.
Showcasing therefore looks a back-to-lay trade. If he is prominent, his price will drop through the floor.

I had backed Monsiuer Chevalier for this last night, so I'm in a bit of a quandary. Wind or no wind, he is a complete machine and I won't be laying that off until the race has started.

2.15: Lonsdale Cup result:
1: Askar Tau
2: Drill Sergeant
3: Royal And Regal
Time: 3m30.63
Phew! Royal And Regal was absolutely tanking there! Neil Callan looked like all he had to do was let the throttle out and it would all be over. And yet Ryan Moore made up for his first race horror show in the best way possible. The champion jockey kept plugging away at Askar Tau, who readily settled down to win well, while Drill Sergeant did us a favour and finished second.

Royal And Regal was matched at [1.04] for a place. I was sweating there, but you pays your money and you takes your chances....

2.10pm
Is this the worst Group 2 race in history? I mean really, there are only two Group winners in it and both of those have a preference for softish conditions. This is appalling. The Betfair punters have taken strong view about it though.

Royal and Regal and Enroller, the two Group horses, are being laid are at 4.9 and 5.6 respectively. Of the two, I reckon Royal and Regal is the least likely to act on this lightening quick ground. Trainer Michael Jarvis has given him a break during the summer precisely to avoid this sort of going.
With two to be placed in Betfair's place market, the [2.3] looks a sporting lay to me.

1.45pm result:
1: Whispering Gallery
2: Class Is Class
3: Yes Mr President
Time: 2.31.07
Before all of you start shouting and bleating about Class Is Class. Ok. Ryan Moore had him perhaps a shade too far back. But he finished with a real rattle. But it was all to do with the tail wind that I mentioned earlier.

A breathless Richard Hills, who rode the winner, said afterwards: "This tailwind is really useful for front-runners. It means that the field have to come and chase you, but you're stamina is going to last that much longer with the assistance."

I don't think that Whispering Gallery would have struggled without the wind to be honest, he won by six lengths, but the point was made.

1.45pm
I have had my hopes of a monster payout in the Ebor on Waldvogel dashed. Luca Cumani had just saddled Boz for the first when I collared him. "Waldvogel?", he questioned. "I don't think so. I'm happy with him. He lost his action after Goodwood, which is not ideal before a race like this. He is in decent form though."

But your record in this race Mr Cumani, I implored. "All my other runners came into this race in good form. I'm not too hopeful."

The Ebor is starting to crystallize in my mind.

1.40pm
I think Class Is Class will be very difficult to beat here. That form behind Firebet and Roman Republic is ludicrously strong. The great Seagull in his Pricewise column highlight that he might not like the ground. Who knows?

I liked the look of Resplendent Light, a solid place bet if there ever was one, but like Segull, Seeking The Buck appeals. He ran a fine race in the John Smith's Cup here last month, which was run in a very fast time.

1.15pm
Statto!! Statto! The bespectacled betting brain 'aka' Angus Loughran is alerting everyone and anyone who is listening on course with his tips for this afternoon. He's got a mike, and god damn he's going to use it. "I think the price about Magicalmysterytour is all wrong in the Ebor," he said. "Changingoftheguard is a short price, but don't forget that Magicalmysterytour used to be trained by Aiden O'Brien and he's won well here before."

He's got one in the Rose Stakes as well - the 4.05pm for those of you who couldn't care less about race names - and he's gone for Nosedive.

12.30pm
Staying with the Ebor, I liked the look of Hits Only Vic as a place possibility. In these big handicaps, you cannot have too many chinks in your armour, and Hits Only Vic seems to have ticks in all the right boxes. He goes on the ground, he's won at the course, and he's two from two at 1m6f.

But if I liked the look of Hits Only Vic, then Waringah and even Magicalmysterytour must come into the equation, too after their run behind Hits Only Vic here last month.

Step forward the wise old sage, Gerald Delamere. "It is 36 years since the winner of the Ebor has come from that race at York," he said. "Ebor winners have come from the 1m2f race and the 1m4f race form that card, but not Hit's Only vic's race."

He jettisoned Waringah's chances further, adding: "In the past 50 years only Sea Pigeon 30 years ago has carried more weight than 9st 4lbs to victory."

Kybosh! Back to the drawing board.

12.15pm
Ok gang. We've had some work done on the blog. Building works. You know, the type of thing that is essential if you are in the know, but very annoying if you aren't.

I went to watch Sunderland v Chelsea last night. I was still in my white linen suit from racing, and was certainly not looking forward to leaving the Stadium Of Light with the Mackems steaming from their 3-1 defeat at the hands of Carlo Ancelloti's side. I was in a box, courtesy of Boylesports, and when the stadium had cleared, it was interesting to see the Chelsea squad come out on to the pitch to warm down with some shuttle runs. Sunderland didn't. It's about commitment in this game, and there was no-one more committed than Ricardo Carvalho, who finished ahead of his teammates in every single shuttle run. The guy is 31, for Pete's sake.

And if it is commitment that you are looking for, look no further than Luca Cumani. The suave trainer has nailed his colours to the mast in the Ebor, year after year, sending out winner after winner. Three in the last ten years, to be more precise. Remember Purple Moon, Mephisto and Vicious Circle?

This is the man who has complete command over what an Ebor winner is. And who does he rely on this year? Waldvogel. Yep, he's 50-1 with the regular bookies, so on Betfair you might expect some sort of ludicrous price like [150.0]. Nope. He's trading at [55.0].And there's been over £3,500 on him, too, which is more than the likes of Nanton and Dansili Dancer, who are around the same sort of price. More realistically though, he is [9.6] for a place.

He lost his action last time at Goodwood, so you can forget that run. He's been placed at Group 3 level and has won a Listed contest. Food for thought, if nothing else.

11.15pm
Good morning every one. I wish that phrase had the same ring to it as when Richie Benaud says it on his wonderful cricket commentaries. The man is a legend, I'm not, so that is probably why. Although look at this ad from his pomp. Gosh, they don't do shaving ads like that now do they, eh? Tiger Woods and Roger Federer need to do better for Gillette.

Anyway, welcome to day two of York's Ebor meeting, to a sun-kissed Knavesmire. There is a fresh tail-wind blowing, and considering the going is good to firm and Sea The Stars smashed a course record yesterday, we could see a few more times lowered this afternoon.

And there are many of you who think that Changingoftheguard, Aidan O'Brien's red-hot favourite for the Ebor, is the probably the one who will do it. "There is nothing that can stop Changinoftheguard," wrote Michael, after racing last night. "Aidan O'Brien has an excellent record in this race, and that last run at Down Royal was in a monster time."

A glance at the time of that run over 1m5f shows that the Ballydoyle hotpot ran in 2m45.38, which was incredibly 6.62secs faster than standard on good to firm. This Irish raider is a machine ladies and gentlemen. Incidentally, it is Samuel, the five-year-old trained by John Dunlop, who holds the 1m6f record here. He broke the record in May last year in a time of 2m55.03.

The gates have just opened and the Yorkshire crowd come streaming in. An announcement floats around the course from the tannoy. "Please could the owner of the Bentley Continental Flying Spur, registration ... come to the racecourse office." Would the owner of a Bentley Continental Flying Spur really know their number plate? Wouldn't their driver go the racecourse office instead?

Tags: Ebor Betting, Geoffrey Riddle, Horseracing betting, Sea The Stars, The Gimcrack Stakes, York Betting, York Ebor Meeting