
Your Majesty, I'm taking you on ... ok, your horse
Free Agent is an opening race lay for Simon Rowlands on the final day of Royal Ascot as he attempts to claw back a little of the losses incurred by Paktai's win today
Friday was a day of mixed fortunes for me on the betting front. It started with a win for the heavily backed Cuis Ghaire in the Albany Stakes. I had one of my biggest bets for a while at average odds of [2.32] (Betfair SP of 1.84) but had a few palpitations along the way before the filly delivered the goods.
Still, I'm not quite sure how Cuis Ghaire managed to be matched for good money at [6.0] in-running as she always looked likely to be there or thereabouts. She'll need to be better than this if she's to take some of the races that have been mentioned as targets, but her Naas win shows she almost certainly is.
Frankie Dettori rode a masterful race from the front on Campanologist in the King Edward VII Stakes, the so-called Ascot Derby. I suspect that Ryan Moore would have ridden the race a bit differently on the strong-finishing Conduit if he had his time again. It's not as if his mount had an aversion to being in front at Epsom. Sectionals would be nice. Hebridean could manage only last.
Jim Bolger seems not to be flavour of the month on the Betfair Forum, but I doubt that Cuis Ghaire's trainer would have been the slightest bothered by anything that punters thought or said after saddling Lush Lashes to win the Coronation Stakes. She pulled out lots to beat Infallible by three-and-a-quarter lengths and is one of the few from her age and sex who look capable of mixing it with the best from other divisions. I got this race wrong, place laying the first two and an also ran.
Supaseus became the second winner of the day from the front. Again, sectionals would be nice, for then we might get a much clearer idea as to whether the winner was indeed "doing it the hard way" (Zoe Bird, predictably) or something else entirely.
I think this is going to be a losing Royal Ascot. I had been steadily clawing back the losses and was nearly even but Patkai did for me big time. Was that lack of stamina as he bounded clear from two furlongs out? No, I didn't think so either. Winners of the Queen's Vase are not always up to much, but Patkai looked much more like a Mahler (winner last year then placed in St Leger and Melbourne Cup) than a Melrose Avenue (last on both of his starts after winning in 2005).
"Anything could happen" was the prediction about the concluding Buckingham Palace Handicap, and Regal Parade's win came at a Betfair SP of [32.0] from Dhaular Dhar at [40.0], the pair racing on opposite sides of the track. The absence of either of the market leaders in the first four ensured that my day at least ended on a good note. Ahmed Ajtebi, rider of Regal Parade, seemed even happier: it was a winner with his first ride at the meeting for the former Dubai rider. This year's Royal Ascot has been nothing if not international in flavour.
It may offend some, but I am no fan of royalty, either as a concept or in its earthly manifestations. That is not my reason for opposing HM Queen's Free Agent in the Chesham Stakes at 2:30 on Saturday, but it may add a certain frisson to the outcome. The colt was a five-length winner on his only start but a fair bit more is likely to be needed to win here, the time was nothing special, the going is much firmer, Richard Hughes is on board and there are plenty of other dark horses in the field of 12. If he trades at around [3.0] I'll be hitting the pink "lay" button.
And I'm likely to be laying Spanish Moon, probably for a place, in the Hardwicke Stakes at 3:05 also. He could prove to be pretty good, but winning a listed race fairly narrowly from a pair of dogs in Munsef and Petara Bay does not make him so, especially when you consider that the time was poor. This Group 2 should be a whole different ball game.
The Golden Jubilee Stakes at 3:45 should be a cracker, with several of the 20 declared runners realistically in the reckoning for champion sprinter runners. It strikes me that a lot of them tend to be held up, and that could favour Takeover Target, who just gets on with things and should be able to bag the near-side rail. He merits a win and place bet, and it is worth considering trading him in-running.
They may end up centre to stand side in the Golden Jubilee but will surely spread further across in the 28-runner Wokingham Handicap at 4:25. Abraham Lincoln will do very well to go close off a mark of 107, while Knot In Wood has failed to convince this season. Both tempt as place lays near the head of the market at around [3.5], and I may well try to get plenty of others in my book in what is an appealing market to get stuck into.
The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at 5:00 is my "sit it out" race of the day. Mad Rush is a worthy favourite but short enough.
Finally, I will be siding against Honolulu in the closing Queen Alexandra Stakes at 5:35, be it on the win and/or place market. He is a talented rogue whose very best form is on ground softer than this, and one or more of a number of his rivals could prove his undoing.
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Oh Simon, never take mam on :-) and Aidan O'Brien....
Bernard | 22 June 2008