Royal Ascot / Geoffrey Riddle / 17 June 2010 / Leave a Comment

Fresh from tipping Byword and Maqaasid yesterday, Geoffrey Riddle is at the heart of the action once more on day three of Royal Ascot with the usual tips, news and gossip. If you have any questions feel free to comment below, or email him on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

5.35pm result:
1: Dandino
2: London Stripe
3: Caucus
4: Bay Willow
Everyone's favourite trainer, James Given, secures the lucky last with Dandino. Market leader London Stripe made a bid for home early under champion jockey Ryan Moore after wearing down the heavily gambled-on Bay Willow, who was sent off at around [12.5]. Bay Willow traded at [3.0] in-running, and once London Stripe hit the front he traded at [2.36].

But Dandino, who was so impressive at Epsom during the Derby festival, loomed up out wide and denied London Stripe on the line. The winner was matched at [14.0] in-running, but for only £4.

5.25pm
Andrew Black, founder of Betfair, gave us the winner of the Hampton Court Stakes when I spoek to him earlier today. To be more accurate, it was actually his wife, but Black was very keen on the chances of Hayzoom in the lucky last, too. The horse trades at [27.0].

5.15pm
'The placings remain unaltered, the placings remain unaltered," says the tannoy, deadpan, as the crowd boos in mockery. I think it is fair to say there are a few drunk people out there.

5pm result:
1: Afsare
2: Quadrille
3: Wigmore Hall
A huge cheer goes up, but if this had been 200 years ago, half the crowd would have been shot. Afsare, under Kieren Fallon, just got up in the dying strides from Quadrille, owned by Her Majesty. Punters really have no grace, have they?

The Queen's horse was matched at an in-running low of [1.08]. Hold it, the 'ding-dong' has sounded. Would the stewards really throw out the winner for Liz? It's [6.0] on Betfair that they do...

4.45pm
Irish trainer Carl O'Callaghan, who saddles Kinsale King in the Golden Jubilee on Saturday, was taking pictures in the winners' enclosure a minute ago.

O'Callaghan trains in America, and is now famous for feeding his Dubai Golden Shaheen winner a diet of Guinness and eggs. Or should I say, four pints of Guinness a day and two eggs. O'Callaghan was minding his own business, and looked like any other excited racegoer.

I asked him if he had rented his suit. "This thing?", he exclaimed. "Sure I did, but if I win on Saturday I'll buy one!"

O'Callaghan revealed that Kinsale King is in 'tip-top' shape for his tilt at the Group 1 sprint, for which he is around 8-1, and revealed: "I reckon it's gonna be me on that platform on Saturday, shaking all the hands."

Punchy.

4.25pm result:
1: Ransom Note
2: Invincible Soul
3: Greyfriarschorista
4: Secretive
5: King Of Reason
6: Audacity Of Hope
A fair race as far as the draw was concerned, with hot favourite Ransom Note justifying market support with a relatively easy win on the far side. The next four home were on the stand's side, which makes me think what could have been had Business As Usual run.

Dermot Weld has won two Melbourne Cups in his time, and just a moment ago he gave the strongest possible hint that Rite Of Passage, the new Gold Cup winner, would make the trip to Australia in November.

Rite Of Passage finished third to Peddlers' Cross in the Neptune Investment's Hurdle at Cheltenham, and Weld admitted that he should have run him in the Supreme Novices instead.

"He was unbeaten before he went to Cheltenham, where I probably ran him in the wrong race, I should have ran him in the Supreme Novices."

Weld also didn't rule out the National Hunt season for Rite Of Passage, either, saying. "He's obviously a champion hurdle-type horse, so we wouldn't rule anything out."

3.50pm result: Gold Cup
1: Rite Of Passge
2: Age Of Aquarius
3: Purple Moon
The Gold Cup is the pinnacle of staying races on the Flat, so why is everyone so surprised that a horse which raced at the Cheltenham Festival could outstay the field.
It was a beautiful ride from Pat Smullen, who hadn't had a winner at the track for 2554 days, or 44 consecutive rides!

Rite Of Passage was matched in-running at [42.0] for £9, while the price of Age Of Aquarius was driven down to as low as [1.5].

3.45pm
Typical. I had got myself all lathered up about the chances of Bannaby and then disaster strikes. My Spanish source, one Mr Guedeja-Marran, who informed me of Equiano two years ago before his first King's Stand win, has just told me that Bannaby is not at his best. "Something is wrong with his knees," said the Spaniard. "He's not running at his best."

Brilliant. Anyone want to take a trade off me about a lame Spanish horse in the most competitive Gold Cup in years?

3.40pm
Thierry Thuillez has jetted in for one ride. Kasbah Bliss in the Gold Cup. The Frenchman doesn't speak English too well, and my French is patchy, but his mount apart, Thulliez reckoned there could be two only other winners of the historic contest.

I believed that it was pretty fly to be jetting in for just one race, but Thulliez was unmoved. "Why not?" was his phlegmatic reply, as he shrugged his shoulders in typically Gallic fashion. "I'm not scared of any other horse in the race, but there are two others who I think will give us a good race; Ask and Purple Moon."

Purple Moon has been tipped by Pricewise, of Racing Post fame. Luca Cumani's seven-year-old trades at [17.0], but the suave Italian hasn't had a winner at this meeting since 1997.

3.30pm
The weight of money forces Ask into favouritism for the Ascot Gold Cup at [4.8].

Sir Michael Stoute's seven-year-old is trading at [4.8] now and is odds-on to be placed. Looking at Timeform ratings, Ask's last four runs were all rated in the 130s, three of which were in Group 1s. If Hibaayeb's performance has taught us anything, it is that class is the singularly most important thing in races at the top level.

Bannaby, the only other proven Group 1 performer in the field, is curiously still trading ay [27.0]. I'm in on both.

3.05pm result
1: Hibaayeb
2: Edlalil
3: Gallic Star

3.01pm
Sometimes a plunge on Betfair can be explained away by liquidity. But look at the money that has poured in for Bikini Babe.
The mount of Kieren Fallon opened at [30.0], but now trades at half that.

3pm
Statistically, getting with Hibaayeb in the Ribblesdale Stakes is a bad idea. Eight of the last ten winners of the Group 2 contest were yet to win at Group level and nine of the last ten winners had raced no more than three times in their juvenile days.

The Godolphin filly won the Group 1 Fillies' Mile here last season, on her fourth start, but she was pretty impressive when finishing third in the Group 1 Prix Saint Alary last time out behind Sarafina, who subsequently went on to win the Group 1 Prix de Diane. Now that's strong form, and Timeform rate her the best filly in the race by far. It's easy to see why she vies for favouritism with Principal Role, who in my mind, is the logical market leader at [4.5].

2.50pm
Racing is such a diverse and wonderful game, which is why it holds racegoers, punters and horse-lovers in thrall. No more is this seen than in the Ribblesdale Stakes, up next.

There have been more plots in this Group 2 than in any other Group race over the five days - Mont Etoile and Thakafaat won at 25-1 and 22-1 in 2006 and 2005 respectively.

And yet at the other end of the scale, Silkwood was installed as the 4-1 favourite in 2007 on a tall home reputation and some good gallop work behind closed doors. Sometimes, the facts and figures simply don't add up, and you've got to take a leap of faith in a race like this.

As this race is over 1m4f, it makes sense to have a look at our friends, the Dosage indices.

Dosage indices of the last six Ribblesdale winners:
2009 Flying Cloud 1.37
2008 Michita 1.31
2007 Silkwood 1.00
2006 Mont Etoile 1.00
2005 Thakafaat 1.35
2004 Punctilious 1.4

Dosage indices of today's Ribblesdale field:
Acquainted 3.00
Awe Inspiring 1.15
Bikini Babe 1.32
Cabaret 1.00
Eldalil 0.65
Fatanah 3.00
Gallic Star 1.22
Gertrude Bell 1.25
Hibaayeb 1.18
Middle Club 1.22
Principal Role 1.31

As you can see, Acquanted and Fatanah are unlikely stayers, which is a shame, becuase form-wise, I quite fancied the latter.

2.30pm result:
1: Approve
2: Reckless Reward
3: Excel Bolt
Henry Candy maintains his barren run at Royal Ascot, as the Willie Haggas-trained Approve romps home under Eddie Ahern. The winner was matched in-running at [100.0], just for a fiver, but the interesting part of the race was that Tom Eaves, jockey on Excel Bolt, split away from the main pack to hug the stand's rail.

Eaves finished third, racing on his own, which could create all sorts of problems ahead of the Britannia, as the far side of the track was considered the faster strip of ground. If the jockeys believ that it is possible to win on the stand's side, the shape of the big handicap chances considerably.

2.15pm
Queenie arrives to a packed house. I've been to the paddock, where Dubawi Gold simply looked different class.

Michael Dods' charge shimmered in the afternoon sun, but his physique just looked bigger and more powerful than anything else. The Godolphin colt, Al Aasifh was sweating between his legs, the only one to do so, probably at the expectation of having Sheikh Mohammed, his wife, Princess Haya, and an entourage of about 30 Emiratis staring at him.

Dinkum Diamond is trading at 11-4 on course, but you can get [3.0] on Betfair, which is still better minus commission.

1.50pm
The celebrities pour through the gates ahead of Her Majesty's arrival at 2pm. I heard a bloke shouting out a minute ago, "Oi, babe, where you goin'?" only to turn round to see the vision of beauty that is Louise Redknapp tottering after husband Jamie. She's wearing a little black dress, but surely it's too hot here for one of those? Wouldn't a lighter shade be better?

Bruce Forsyth has come through the wrought-iron gates to much acclaim, as have the Cheeky Girls, to virtually none.

Henry Candy strolled through after the Cheeky Girls. The trainer of Dinkum Diamond hasn't had a Royal Ascot winner since 1979, which, to much mirth, still rankles with Candy. "The last time I had a winner here, Noah was still building the Arc," quipped Candy.

"My fellow hasn't done much work since his win at Sandown," revealed the Wantage handler. "He's a natural athlete.

"I've got no problem with the draw, as there are only 12 runners. I don't think it matters where you are drawn."

Candy nominated Dubawi Gold and Excel Bolt as his main dangers, and added: "you've always got to be weary of a Richard Hannon runner in this. He's got a tremendous record." That'll be Zebedee, then.

1.40pm
Andrew Black, founder of Betfair, has three strong fancies this afternoon. I collared him on his way to lunch a minute ago outside the racecourse. It was like meeting my maker.

Black, who is now reportedly worth £185m, can't have defeat for Dinkum Diamond in the Norfolk Stakes, the first race on the card. "We've had one [Foghorn Leghorn] run against it twice and it's an absolute machine," said Black. "We thought ours was an absolute certainty at Salisbury, but we got beat there, and then again at Sandown last time. It pissed all over us."

Black, who has teamed up with football legend Michael Owen and Tom Dascombe at the Malpas training establishment in Cheshire, wasn't too interested in betting on the Gold Cup, nor the Britannia, but, prompted by his wife, he revealed that Afsare was the one to be on in the Hampton Court Stakes (5pm).

He liked the prospects of Dandino in the lucky last, but his eyes lit up at the thought of backing Hayzoom, of peter Chapple-Hyam's, in the same race.

Black has had numerous horses with the Newmarket trainer, and Hayzoom can be backed at [23.0] on Betfair.

12.40pm
There's Argentina v South Korea on the television at the moment in the press room. From now on until Sunday night there is simply too much happening on the sporting firmament. It's Royal Ascot. Then there's the World Cup. And did the US Open sneak up on you as well? England and Wales take on the southern hemisphere in the rugby, too.

It all seems to have got to Graham Cunningham, the RUK pundit and former B.B racing tipster, who is sitting next to me. He's rattling his phone in his ear, with the sound of Vuvuzela emanating from it. "I say 'VUVU', you say 'ZELA!' 'VUVU'...

I know it is an often parodied skit on Youtube, but this Vuvuzela rant is simply priceless. Don't worry, there's no horn sound.

I'm going to lunch.

12.30pm
The second stat that might help with the Gold Cup is that 14 of the last 15 Gold Cup winners won at least half of their previous starts over 1m2f or more. Rite Of Passage has won both of his, while Kite wood has won three from six, which included defeats in the Derby and St Leger. Akmal, who completes the short, er, shortlist, has won 8 out of 14. Ask fans can boast that their hero is the next best, with six wins from 14, which is still pretty good.

Enzeli in 1999 was the last horse to not have scored at Group level, but he made his debut over ten furlongs, and never raced in England below that distance. He had also won four of his seven starts before the Gold Cup.

What's more, he went off 20-1 for the Gold Cup, which in my view, considering the two stats I've just quoted, is about the price that Age Of Aquarius should be. What odds would he be if he was trained by, say, Maurcio Delcher-Sanchez?

12.15pm
There are two very strong stats that involve the Gold Cup. Firstly, every single winner going back to 2000 had won a Group 2 prior to success here, and six of them had already bagged a Group 1. It would seem to rule out Age Of Aquarius and Kasbah Bliss, who looks well held by Kite Wood on their running in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier over two miles in May.

A line through Blek suggests that there is very little between Bannaby and Kite Wood. Bannaby is trained by Spanish handler Mauricio Delcher-Sanchez, known on these shores for sending over Equiano to win the King's Stand Stakes in 2008.

Bannaby win the Group 1 Prix du Cadran in 2008 over today's trip, and Delcher-Sanchez suggested then that last year's Gold Cup was the target for his charge. It is unclear, despite 33 career runs, whether the seven-year-old entire will go on Good to Firm, but as explained earlier on today, there is a beautiful covering of grass that the jockeys believe is like a carpet. [25.0] looks a big price for a Group 1 winner proven over today's 2m4f.

Midday:
The big betting heat of the day is undoubtedly the Britannia Handicap (4.25pm). Until Business As Usual was scratched, I was convinced that Michael Jarvis's colt should have been favourite. The horse that he beat last time out, Ransom Note, is the [9.4] favourite instead.

I can see it winning, I really can, but there are far more lurking at the bottom of the market that tempt me more. The two that I have zeroed in on are Navajo Chief and Kona Coast. Neither look appealing at first sight, but when you consider that the last three winners of this race were sent off 20-1, 28-1 and 33-1, that doesn't really matter.

Both are drawn high, which is crucial, and Navajo Chief's main asset is his speed. Last time out at Haydock, the son of King's Best recorded a time 0.13 second slower than Main Aim, who won the Group 3 Jury Stakes on the same card, and what's more Navajo Chief carried 1lb more in his race. Main Aim is 16-1 for the Group 1 Golden Jubilee on Saturday.

Navajo Chief hasn't run on good to firm since winning on his debut at 50-1, and he seemed to relish it then. He could easily improve for another spin on such going, and looks over-priced at [25.0].

The other one I've backed is Kona Coast. Trainer John Gosden has won the Britannia four times, and his charge finished last time just a length and a quarter behind Balducci, who is second favourite. Due to the vagaries of handicapping, and a subsequent win for Balducci, Kona Coast meets that rival on 15lbs better terms. He looks a massive bet at [21.0] and [5.8] a place.

11.35am
Chris has just e-mailed in. He's not happy about Baz Luhrmann, at all. "Listen," he huffs. "The last thing that I want to do is sit at work and take advice from some Aussie. Australians are hardly renowned for their great philosophers, are they? That was the most cheesy, pitiful track that I have ever had the misfortune to hear. How on earth did over 200,000 people buy that?"

I was merely trying to illustrate, Chris, how many British people seem to ignore the benefits of sun-tan lotion. I was not trying to make a point about where Australians lie in the pantheon of great philosophical schools.

A philosophy that I do subscribe to though is Dosage indices. Regular followers of this blog will know that these mysterious figures carry great weight with me.

Basically, Dosage figures indicate a horse's breeding with regards to speed influences or their ability to stay certain distances. This is of very real importance this afternoon due to the Gold Cup, raced over a punishing 2m4f.

If you look at the last ten winners of the Gold Cup, all of them had low Dosages indices, which suggests strong staying influences.

Dosage Indices of last ten Gold Cup winners:
2006-2009: Yeats 0.89
2005: Westerner 1.53
2004: Papineau 0.88
2003: Mr Dinos 1.59
2001-02: Royal Rebel 2.3
2001: Kayf Tara 0.9

As you can see, all of these winners had a Dosage figure of 1.59 or less. But there are several in this year's field that have figures that scream stayer, most notably Ask and Manifest.

Dosage indices of this year's runners:
Ask 0.73
Bannaby 1.33
Kasbah Bliss 1.4
Purple Moon 1.17
Rite Of Passage 1.29
Tastahil 1.06
Age Of Aquarius 0.89
Akmal 2.38
Darley Sun 0.93
Kite Wood 1.09
Manifest 0.89
Montaff 1.32

11am
Welcome everyone to the third day of Royal Ascot. The sun is blazing down on Berkshire this morning, which is sure to bring out a monster crowd here on Ladies' Day. There's sure to be plenty of flesh on display, which is liable to turn a beetroot red colour by the end of racing this afternoon. Given that Baz Lurmann's 'Always Wear Sunscreen' sold over 200,000 copies, you would have thought more people would have taken note.

I've been stopped in my betting tracks here already. I strongly fancied Business As Usual in the Britannia Handicap (4.25pm) and Pipette in the Ribblesdale Stakes (3.05pm), but due to the state of the going they have been pulled from their races. Back to the drawing board.

They are not the only ones to be withdrawn, and the full list of non-runners below highlights what many trainers think of the going here right now.

Clerk of the course Stickels sprinkled the track with water last night, but the turf is firming up all the time and the Goingstick readings are: 9.9 on the stands side, 9.8 centre and 10.o in the far side, which still means the high numbers should prevail like they did yesterday. In the Hunt Cup, the first ten home were all drawn high, which is probably another reason why Michael Jarvis scratched Business As Usual, who was drawn 11.

Most of the jockeys were complimentary about the state of the going yesterday, believing that the lush covering of turf acted as a cushion.

Non-runners:
3.05pm: Pipette (Going)
3.50pm: Clowance (Going)
4.25pm: Business As Usual (Going), Robens Rock (colic)
5pm: Prompter (Going)
5.35pm: Kingdom Of Munster (Going)

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