Royal Ascot Day Two: Complete expert betting guide to second day's action

Royal Ascot / Graham Cunningham / 18 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Royal Ascot, as we all know, is not a sprint but a marathon. It doesn't get much easier on day two, but Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has been wading through the form in the hope of capitalising on a profitable first day after Equiano obliged at chunky odds.

2.30 - Jersey Stakes
Another day brings another wickedly complex opener in which some old rivals lock horns again. Calming Influence asserted late to beat Stimulation and Red Alert Day at Newmarket and that race has supplied the Jersey winner for the last two years.

Paco Boy, Georgebernardshaw and Il Wardd helped make up the numbers in the French Guineas, while Dream Eater and Strike The Deal finished fifth and ninth in the English version. The fact Murtagh has chosen the unexposed Jupiter Pluvius ahead of Georgebernardshaw is noteworthy, while War Officer adds French spice to the mix and Generous Thought is a live longshot having caught the eye in a York handicap.

In short, this is extremely tough. The best advice is to tread carefully, but Stimulation may have got to the front a shade early at HQ and can progress again. By contrast Il Wardd was given much too forceful a ride at Longchamp. He did well to hang in there so long and it seems Frankie feels he has the edge over Calming Influence.

On the negative side, Strike The Deal looks worth a place lay under a hefty penalty, while Red Alert Day can also be taken on in the place market given that he looks more exposed than many of his main rivals.

Conclusion:
Back Stimulation £15 win and place
Back Il Wardd 10 win
Lay Strike The Deal £20 place
Lay Red Alert Day £20 place
Lay Calming Influence £20 win


3.05 - Windsor Forest Stakes
Stoute has won two of the four renewals of this and Heaven Sent looks a leading contender after trouncing Harvest Queen and Barshiba in a Newmarket Group 3.

Sabana Perdida has won two from two since finishing third to Nannina last year and has clear place credentials again, while Baharah finished behind Enforce and Selinka at Epsom but appeals as likely to emerge best of that trio if given less to do this time.

Grecian Dancer is in foal to Galileo and seems to be thriving after powering clear of Group 3 rivals at the Curragh, while Many Colours is a tough cookie and returns to Europe after failing to cope with the exceptional Sun Classique twice in Dubai.

Majestic Roi showed more sparkle at Epsom but looks opposable again under her hefty penalty, while Fragrancy has a lot more on than when running so well in a strong handicap at Redcar last time.

Conclusion:
Back Baharah £20 place
Back Heaven Sent £20 win and £40 place


3.45 - Prince of Wales's Stakes
Why should Duke Of Marmalade win the day two showpiece? Well, because he has the best form. And why should he get beaten? Maybe he won't, but at tight odds it's essential to look for chinks and Ascot's short straight could be less than ideal. It's also worth noting that some fair judges feel the fact that Murtagh has to use the British air cushioned whip means he will find it harder than normal to get to the bottom of this relentless galloper.

In short, the Duke looks a touch short at around [2.8]. Many of the rest look very closely matched, but Pressing might just outrun his odds. Granted, he finished only fifth in this race last year, but he lines up in fine form and a line through Saddex doesn't leave him far behind Duke Of Marmalade.

Ask's ability to win a top-class race at this trip remains questionable, but Sixties Icon is back on top of his game and, along with Phoenix Tower, adds extra strength to a compelling contest. Pipedreamer is no forlorn hope at big prices provided he is ridden closer to the pace than last time, but last year's Champion Stakes hero Literato is very hard to assess after failing to fire twice since joining Godolphin.

Conclusion:
Lay Duke Of Marmalade for £80 at up to 2.9
Back Pressing £20 win and place


4.20 - Royal Hunt Cup
In the words of 1980's disco greats Shalamar, the 2008 Hunt Cup looks a case of "Take that to the Bank." Because, whichever way you slice it, this 30-runner handicap revolves around whether Luca Cumani's Bankable is in the same form he showed to rout his rivals in a Goodwood Listed race last month.

If he is then this could be one-way traffic and, given that he seems to be improving with every run, it looks folly to take him on even at such restrictive odds. As regards a betting strategy, I can't help but be tempted by offers of [1.6] and bigger for Bankable to place. Granted, taking odds on in such a big field would normally be very risky, but Bankable is a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper and something will have to go badly wrong for four horses to finish ahead of him here.

Of the remainder, We'll Come looks primed to run a big race in headgear for the first time after returning from a long break with a fine fourth in the Victoria Cup here. Lang Shining and Docofthebay also look among the most likely to capitalise if the favourite falters, while Extraterrestrial was a shade unlucky at Chester last time and deserves respect having never stopped improving since he joined Richard Fahey.

Conclusion:
Back Bankable £30 win and £90 place
Back We'll Come £30 place


4.55 - Queen Mary Stakes
Splitting the promising Danehill Destiny and Heart Shaped isn't easy, but they both look sure to show up well in a field packed with unexposed fillies.

Danehill Destiny is two from two and beat a decent colt in Prolific at Windsor, while Heart Shaped took a big step forward when beating the more experienced Silver Shoon in a Listed race at the Curragh and that form will make her very hard to keep out of the money.

Richard Hannon saddles two clear place contenders in Baileys Cacao and Rebecca De Winter, while Bryan Smart's impressive record with juveniles at this meeting means Excellent Show has to be worth a second look.

Conclusion:
Back Heart Shaped £25 win and place


5.30 - Sandringham Handicap
Makaaseb is a lightly raced improver who looks bound to go well here. Michael Jarvis's strapping filly has always been rated as better than a handicapper and caught the eye in the paddock and the race in Listed company at York last month, where she stayed on willingly despite finding little room to manoeuvre. Ascot ought to suit her and a mark of 97 might just underplay her ability by a fair margin.

Festivale finished just ahead of Makaaseb at York and is slightly better off, but she lacks the same scope for improvement. The progressive Maramba looks a bigger threat based on the useful form she showed as a juvenile, while Illusion was game in winning a Windsor maiden but may be up against it at these weights based on the way she faded in a strong Doncaster handicap.

The fact that Richard Hills has passed up the chance to partner Shabiba in order to ride Makaaseb tells you which way he is thinking. I suspect he is right on the money and with four places on offer a win and place bet looks the best way to get with Makaaseb under conditions which should suit her ideally.

Conclusion:
Back Makaaseb £30 win and place