Royal Ascot Day Three: Betting options for every race

Royal Ascot / Graham Cunningham / 18 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

It's been tricky punting so far at Ascot with Duke of Marmalade romping home but Bankable blowing out on day two. Graham Cunningham outlines his approach to put a smile on your face with his day three bets

2.30 - Norfolk Stakes
The juvenile races this week have been tough to read and this one is no exception, with any number open to bags of improvement.

South Central mashed up his rivals at Carlisle and clocked a good time to boot, while Cerito recorded a facile Bath win and Baycat has a useful course success under his belt. Prolific, Spin Cycle and Finjaan also have potential to figure at this level, while Flashmans Papers is arguably the strict form pick after coming from way back to land a 100-1 shocker in Tuesday's Windsor Castle Stakes.

On balance this looks one to tread very carefully with, but no-one should have to wait until after 3pm to have their first wager of the day and, with no great confidence, it's tempting to try and nick a few quid by taking on Flashmans Papers. He seemed well served by being dropped out in rear in the Windsor Castle but similar tactics will be harder to carry off in what is traditionally a stronger contest.

Conclusion:
Lay Flashmans Papers £15 win and place


3.05 - Ribblesdale Stakes

Oaks runners have a very mixed record in this race and Cape Amber's prospects rest largely on whether she settles better than at Epsom. I certainly wouldn't like to bank on her doing so and, if she does pull, she won't win.

It seems Jimmy Fortune has chosen Oaks seventh Michita ahead of Dar Re Mi, but I suspect it was a very close call and there is no guarantee he has got it right. Michita didn't handle Epsom well and should fare better here, but Dar Re Mi could be fresher after missing the Oaks. She was only just behind Cape Amber despite some barging in the Musidora at York and her pedigree has mile-and-a-half shot right through it. In short, she will be very hard to keep out of the money.

On the negative side, Kitty Matcham ran lamentably in the French Oaks. Only the most avid O'Brien fans will back her after that, while Changing Skies improved in the Cheshire Oaks but confidence is tempered by the fact that the first two were soundly beaten at Epsom.

Conclusion:
Back Dar Re Mi £40 win and £70 place
Lay Cape Amber £30 place
Lay Kitty Matcham £20 place


3.45 - Gold Cup
Sometimes you latch onto a horse that is likely to shorten in the market and lump on. And sometimes you hang fire and feel a prat when it duly halves in price.

Sadly, I have fallen into the latter trap with Coastal Path, who has been backed from [5.5] to [[3.25] by those who believe he poses a huge threat to the chances of Yeats gaining a historic Gold Cup hat-trick.

It goes against the grain to take reduced odds, but Coastal Path is unbeaten after six starts and has never been stretched. Granted, he is unproven beyond two miles, but his half-brother Reefscape stayed it well enough to chase home Yeats here in 2006 and any further rain would favour him more than the title holder.

In summary, Coastal Path gets a narrow vote to spoil the Yeats party. I still harbour a soft spot for Geordieland, who was just a length-and-a-half behind Yeats last year and finally broke a losing run of 15 in the Yorkshire Cup. It remains to be seen whether he will go by the big two when things get tough, but anyone who backs him win and place will have fair prospects of trading out at shorter odds given the way he travels.

Of the rest, Finalmente will do well to better last year's fourth, while Regal Flush looks a suspect stayer and Allegretto and Arc third Sagara have questions to answer after disappointing first time out this year.

Conclusion:
Back Coastal Path £20 win and £50 place
Back Geordieland £10 win and lay to save the stake at [6.0]
Back Geordieland £20 place and lay to save the stake at [2.0]


4.20 - Britannia Stakes
If this isn't an impossible handicap it will certainly do till one comes along. A massive field features any number of progressive horses and, rather than quote a long list of possibles, let's get straight down to three who have made my probables list.

Flawed Genius finished behind Commander Cave and Jaser at Haydock, but he got precious little luck in running and remains the sort to go very close in a big handicap.

Perks was just behind Flawed Genius at Newmarket on Guineas day, but he ended up with a lot to do and a cleaner passage will put him in the mix, too.
Last but not least is Hurricane Hymnbook, who has solid course form in the book and looked better than ever on his return to action at Windsor.

The tricast would be a life changer but, on balance, a small win bet on each of the trio offers some potential. On the negative side, I have no intention of laying the winner of this at generous odds. However, there could be some mileage in opposing a handful in the place market and Yaddree, Redford and Rattan will all do well to get in the money at these weights.

Conclusion:
£10 win on Flawed Genius, Perks and Hurricane Hymnbook
£10 place lay of Yaddree, Redford and Rattan


4.55 - Hampton Court Stakes
Much has been made of Ryan Moore's Royal Ascot travails this week and it's fascinating to see the cheery former champ has opted to ride Sandown maiden winner Kensington Oval ahead of the highly impressive Newmarket winner Dr Faustus.

He may be right, but I'm not so sure. Kensington Oval is plainly bred to be good, but he took time to assert in making a winning debut at Sandown and I'm happy to take him on given that he goes in much deeper just 14 days after his debut.

A slow start hampered King Of Rome in the Derby, while Unnefer is battle hardened after beating Pampas Cat at Newmarket and should still go well despite a 5lb penalty.

Moynahan stayed on for sixth in the 2000 Guineas, but he was flat out a long way from home and it's worth noting that his sire Johannesburg is a worrying 1-32 with his runners at 10 furlongs plus.

Feared In Flight keeps coming up just shy in good company and will probably do so again, while Collection bolted up at York and can't be discounted even though that was a handicap off a mark of just 80.

Staying On is another upgraded handicapper, but he fully deserves the step up in class after refusing to be denied off 93 over a mile at Haydock. Commander Cave, Jaser and Flawed Genius will give a steer as to the strength of the form in the 4.20, but Staying On has a solid chance and is bred to stay this trip with no problems.

Conclusion:
Lay Kensington Oval £25 win and £30 place
Lay Moynahan £40 place
Back Staying On £5 win and £10 place
Back Dr Faustus £10 win and place


5.30 - King George V Stakes
Assessing how much rain might fall overnight is always a concern, but the more the merrier for Allied Powers, who has shot up the weights having thrived at Pontefract, Chester and Newbury.

Strategic Mission is tightly matched with Colony and Ramona Chase on Newbury form, while Daraahem impressed in a decent Chester maiden yet hasn't been seen since.

Luck in-running also looks bound to have a say as usual on the round course, but Indian days and Fiulin both appeal as likely to go well at fair prices. Indian Days is getting better all the time after bounding well clear at Redcar. He ought to relish this longer trip, while Fiulin is already proven over 12-furlongs after bustling up the progressive Enroller at Newmarket.

Missioner is progressing nicely and promises to stay this longer trip, but Ramona Chase and Dream Desert both appeal as potential place lays given that the former pulls hard and the latter isn't necessarily bred to relish a mile and a half.

Conclusion:
Back Fiulin £10 win and place
Back Indian Days £10 win and place
Lay Ramona Chase £20 place
Lay Dream Desert £20 place