Royal Ascot / Graham Cunningham / 16 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Punting a 'notional' £1,000, Racing UK pundit Graham Cunningham goes through the first day's card at Royal Ascot. How will he do? Read on

The weathermen suggest Royal Ascot will begin brightly before becoming unsettled. Sadly, the same summary will be true for many a punter over the next five days.

There are 30 chances to back a winner at the most spellbinding meeting Flat racing has to offer. And, since the advent of betting exchanges, there are also 30 chances to lay a loser, too.

Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham enters the fray with anticipation, trepidation and a notional daily bank of £1,000 as he bids to keep ahead of his fellow Betfair players.

* * *

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes

A desperately difficult opener, but Tariq and Darjina both have much to recommend them. Tariq bolted up in last year's Jersey Stakes here and had Cesare, Arabian Gleam and Haradasun behind when coming from the rear to finish third in the Lockinge on his reappearance. Acceleration is his strong point, so the early dawdle was against him at Newbury, but lack of pace shouldn't be a problem this time.

Darjina was beaten by stablemate Sageburg in a Longchamp Group 1 last month, but soft ground blunted her pace. The fact that Soumillon has chosen her again is a telling vote of confidence and the form she showed to beat Ramonti and George Washington in last year's Prix du Moulin gives her a cracking chance.

No-one wants to start the week by laying the first winner, but I'm cool on the chances of Sageburg and Haradasun. Fast ground asks Sageburg a question he may not be fully equipped for, while the former Aussie star Haradasun looks short enough in the market given that he is on a losing run of eight and was behind Tariq, Cesare and Arabian Gleam in the Lockinge.

Conclusion:
Back Tariq £30 win and £50 place
Back Darjina £20 win and place
Lay Haradasun for £30 in the place market
Lay Sageburg £30 win and place


3.05 King's Stand Stakes

Perhaps I am being overly critical, but I suspect Fleeting Spirit may not be quite as good as she looked when bolting up at Haydock. If she is then I will have to pay up with a smile, but the leaders plainly aided her cause by going off hell for leather in the Temple Stakes and I'm content to have a crack at her in the hope that the pace here is unlikely to collapse late on.

Much has been written about medication issues surrounding Takeover Target, but the Aussie globetrotter looks as good as ever aged nine and is more than capable of going close in this for the third year running judged on the zest he showed to beat old rival Magnus in Singapore.

Spanish challenger Equiano is plainly a more speculative suggestion, but he caught the eye travelling like a good horse for a long way when second to Marchand D'Or in a very strong Group 2 at Chantilly and appeals as a live longshot if handling this faster surface.

Benbaun was just pipped by Takeover Target in this race two years ago and has conditions to suit again, while Kingsgate Native and Captain Gerrard add strength to the three-year-old challenge for those who feel the favourite is vulnerable.

Conclusion:
Lay Fleeting Spirit £80 win and £40 place
Back Takeover Target £20 win and place
Back Equiano £10 win and place


3.45 - St James's Palace Stakes

The most obvious script here ends with Henrythenavigator cruising through to add to his Guineas wins at Newmarket and the Curragh. But similar comments applied to Cockney Rebel before he was turned over at evens in this race last year and, although Aidan O'Brien's colt is plainly the clear form choice, the call could be to seek each way value from a trio made up of Falco, Twice Over and Raven's Pass.

Twice Over pipped Raven's Pass in the Craven at Newmarket before failing to get home in the Dante, while Raven's Pass endured a rough trip before finishing fourth behind Henrythenavigator at Newmarket.

However, if "Henry" is to be knocked off course here Falco looks the one to do it. Granted, the form he showed to spring a 20-1 surprise in the French Guineas leaves him with something to find, but he cruised through that fiercely-run contest like a highly progressive colt and, with pacemakers in the field again, he should have the race run to suit.

It will be interesting to see whether Rio De La Plata has recovered from his Derby exertions. He will need to be a tough cookie to thrive in another Group 1 so soon, but Stubbs Art appeals more as a place lay given the depth of opposition here.

Conclusion:
Back Falco £30 win and £70 place
Lay Stubbs Art £40 place


4.20 - Coventry Stakes

With so many unexposed horses on view a huge amount of educated guesswork is necessary and it's best to stake accordingly. The fact that Aidan O'Brien has saddled four of the last ten winners will ensure Peter Tchaikovsky attracts support, but he only scrambled home at Naas and the market has been cool.

Orizaba's claims look stronger after his facile Newbury win, while Art Connoisseur is another smart prospect based on the turn of foot he showed to power clear at Newmarket.

Himalya justified a tall home reputation despite seeming green at Doncaster. Betfair market moves suggest he is the better of a Noseda pair completed by Haydock scorer Awinnersgame, while Richard Hannon saddles three in the shape of of Icesolator, Instalment and Versaki.

True patriots will be hoping Instalment proves the best of the trio to win in the royal colours. By contrast, mercenary characters like yours truly will be hoping he fails to make the frame. And, given the way he took time to assert on his Newbury debut, this test of speed on fast ground up the new Ascot straight might well be too sharp for Instalment.

Epsom winner Smokey Storm is another who looks up against it at this level, but don't rule out a good run at long odds from Lord Shanakill, who bolted up in a York race which has been boosted more than the once.

Conclusion:
Lay Instalment £30 place
Lay Smokey Storm £30 place
Back Lord Shanakill £10 win and place


4.55 - Ascot Stakes

Jumping trainers have a fine record in this marathon and messrs Henderson, Hobbs and Pipe are strongly represented by Galient, Liberate and Mamlook.

Liberate might just prove the pick of the trio given that he is in fine fettle after a valuable Haydock hurdle win, while last year's third Som Tala is another major player after proving himself better than ever under Frankie Dettori for the first time with a fine second in the Chester Cup.

Bukit Tinggi is out of a dam who stayed forever and has thrived on racing to win at Haydock and York. Another 8lb rise seems unlikely to stop him showing up well from the head of the market, but his York victim Basalt shows a powerful round action and there has to be some doubt as to whether conditions will be ideal if the ground stays on the fast side of good.

Conclusion:
Back Som Tala £20 win and £30 place
Back Liberate £20 win
Lay Basalt £30 place


5.30 - Windsor Castle Stakes

Another fiendishly difficult juvenile puzzle and only the needy and greedy will be piling in with heads down. Bushranger figures at the head of the Betfair market and I wouldn't want to take him on heavily if money continues to come, but he took a good while to grasp the nettle at Tipperary on his debut.

Mullionmileanhour's trainer John Best went close in this last year when Kingsgate Native was pipped at 66-1 and this colt looked a good prospect when making a successful start at Kempton. Brae Hill and Dabbers Chief both line up on the back of wide margin wins in maiden company, while Saucy Brown did the job in fair style at Newmarket and represents a yard with real depth in this department.

Moss Likely is useful and progressive, while Silver Shoon is winless in three attempts but has plenty of pace and a chance as good as any if she can reproduce the form she showed to bustle up the well-regarded Heart Shaped in a Listed race at the Curragh.

Conclusion:
No bet

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