Royal Ascot Day Four: Betting options for every race

Royal Ascot / Graham Cunningham / 19 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

After Yeats held off Geordieland and Coastal Path to win his third straight Ascot Gold Cup, Graham Cunningham gives his tips for Friday

2.30

Much has been said and written about a bias on the straight course. Ascot regulars will know things can change as the week progresses, but low numbers are most unlikely to be disadvantaged here and Cuis Ghaire looks sure to go close from stall 4.

An emphatic Group 3 win at Naas gives her undeniable claims and it has to be significant that Jim Bolger has already mentioned her as a possible for the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes. She has plenty of speed, especially for one by Galileo, and will surely make the most of it by racing very close to the stand rail.

Jet D'Eau is hard to assess after winning two from two in France. Box 15 doesn't look ideal on the face of it, but Penny's Gift isn't badly drawn in seven and her latest Chepstow win was emphatic.

April Pride's Newbury form has taken two knocks here this week, while Please Sing's Leicester form has been let down, too.

Conclusion:
Back Cuis Ghaire £50 win
Back Penny's Gift £10 win

3.05

The harder I look the trickier this gets, with precious little between half a dozen colts, and a bunch finish looks far from out of the question. Tread carefully looks the safest policy, but Hebridean has thrived on aggressive campaigning from Aidan O'Brien and the acceleration he showed to land a Curragh Group 3 brings him firmly into the reckoning.

All The Aces was plainly up against a major improver when pipped by subsequent Derby fourth Doctor Fremantle in the Chester Vase, while Bronze Cannon and Conduit have both earned a step up in class after bolting up in handicaps off 94 and 85 respectively.

City Leader has course form and was back on song in a Goodwood Listed race, while Campanologist is a useful grinder, but all in all this looks very much a minimum stakes job.

Conclusion:
No bet

3.45

The three with persuasive claims here are Spacious, Infallible and Modern Look.

Spacious has three parts of a length in hand of Infallible based on the form they showed to finish second and fourth in Natagora's 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, but the latter had to use up valuable energy to overcome a wide draw there and has fair prospects of reversing the placings this time.
Modern Look was also beaten by Natagora in the spring but has thrived since, looking a better filly than Psalm when fourth in Zarkava's French Guineas then winning a Chantilly Group 3 with plenty in hand. She's a strong traveller with clear back to lay potential for those who like to take out insurance in running.

Tuscan Evening and Caribbean Sunset passed the post second and fourth in the Irish Guineas, but the former remains winless after nine attempts and the Curragh form probably doesn't match what Spacious and Infallible showed at Newmarket.

Lush Lashes will need to be tough to win this after her hard race in the Oaks, while Nahoodh has left Channon to join Johnston but plainly has questions to answer after fading tamely at the Curragh.

Conclusion:
Back Infallible £50 win and place
Back Modern Look £20 win and lay for £20 at 4 in running
Lay Psalm £20 place

4.20

A top-class handicap in which many will be drawn to the runaway Sandown winner Bushman, but the combination of a 13lb hike and faster ground suggest it would be unwise to go overboard.

Championship Point swooped late to win this last year and plainly hasn't gone backwards since, while Emirates Skyline (who finished fifth in 2007) won with authority at Epsom but is 6lb higher and needs to progress again.
Mutajarred and Many Volumes are very closely matched on Great Leighs form. A 2lb pull can help Many Volumes run very well, but Monte Alto looks the main bet based on his record in top handicaps at around this trip.

Murtagh conjured an irresistible run out of him to land a big prize at Newbury last autumn and he caught the eye again at Redcar last time. The bang-in-form Irishman replaces Nicky Mackay here, which looks significant, and a mark of 100 looks more than fair.

Charlie Farnsbarns looks a likely sort among those at double figures, while Buccellati and the consistent Supaseus add further depth to one of the hottest handicaps of the week.

Conclusion:
Back Monte Alto £30 win and place
Back Many Volumes and Charlie Farnsbarns £10 win
Lay Bushman £20 win and place

4.55

As ever, the key to solving the Queen's Vase lies in assessing which horses will blossom for the step up to two miles.

Patkai is by Indian Ridge, so his stamina can't be guaranteed, but he bolted up off 95 at Haydock and that form is the best on offer thus far. Irish raider Ebadiyan looks very much a stayer, but he lacks pace and don't be surprised to see him come off the bridle and drift in running.

Unleashed looks bound to relish two miles based on the way he galloped home at Kempton, while the giant Amerigo left a similar impression in winning at Sandown. Those two successes came off 82 and 84 respectively, so improvement is needed, but Captain Webb is progressing through the right channels based on his emphatic Listed success at Hamilton and Mark Johnston's horses often thrive once stepped up in distance.

Conclusion:
Back Patkai £30 win and place
Back Captain Webb £15 win
Lay Ebadiyan £20 win

5.30

This race has seen the so-called draw bias turned upside down more than once in recent years and it could be dangerous to assume those drawn low will prosper.

Iguazu Falls bolted up in an Epsom Listed race, but he will need to be good to defy a mark of 103 against older horses and the hurly burly of this will be much different to what he has been used to.

Zaahid is more battle hardened after his gutsy Victoria Cup win here, while Docofthebay is plainly handicapped to go close after his near miss in Wednesday's Hunt Cup.

Atlantic Story and Express Wish both come into the race in top form after fine efforts over six furlongs, but my two against the field in a wickedly open finale are Binanti and Border Music.

Binanti has been beaten eight times since winning this race last year but is perfectly suited by a relentless pace in massive fields. He also came right back to form at Sandown last weekend, while Border Music has a fine record at Ascot and always catches the eye with the way he travels through his races.

Conclusion:

Back Binanti £10 win and lay to for £10 in running at 4
Back Border Music £10 win and lay for £10 in running at 4