Betfair Official Blog

Live Ascot Blog: Friday 20th June

We're into day four of Royal Ascot and Geoffrey Riddle's still at the track, still interviewing and keeping on top of the action. Read his fourth day musings here...If you want to email him the address is: theriddleratbetfair@googlemail.com...

5.35pm
Well guys. That's it I'm afraid. You're going to have to get by without me tomorrow. I know. I don't know how either.

It's been a profitable week in the end, although it looked pretty dicey on day one when we looked down, but certainly not out. It has been an absolute honour and I hope we can do it all again some time.

Remember Abraham Lincoln in tomorrow's Wokingham. I reckon he'll be favourite tomorrow.

I'll leave you with this. It's beautiful. Where are they now, eh?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrjBim9XSDg

5.15pm
Ooops. So Sorry. I don't really know what to say. That was a sensational performance by Patkai. I think also that Ryan Moore needs some credit for that one. He gave the horse a little nudge to get it in position and when he saw the opportunity he let it go. He waits 70-odd rides at Royal Ascot to get a winner and then two come along. Boom, Boom!

Sorry, probably not the best time to make lame jokes.

As Tiffany Diamond didn't place, I'm getting dangerous close to levels once more. Once more loss and I reckon I'll have my nose ahead for the week.

That is not the way I wanted to bow out on here. I want to go out with a bang. So let's give those bookies a double-barrelled. One from each side of the track. Vortex on the far side, Jedburgh on the stands side.

Hughie Morrison, after Supaseus won the Wolfreton, was talking up the opposition to his Sakhee's Secret in tomorrow's Golden Jubilee. He said: "It's a fantastic race. I think Marchand D'Or has an outstanding chance if it rains. I thought that was a very impressive win [in Chantilly]. Regardless of the King's Stand, he'd be the one I would be backing if I wasn't backing Sakhee's Secret."

For the record, the sky is beginning to bruise. Morrison went on: "It's looking a bit dark out there. Some nice rain tonight and let it drain during the morning would be great, but we wouldn't want it to rain right through the day's racing."

4.45
I hate coming second.

Alex Hunter, on the comments board below, has gone for "Where The Fox Hat" as a witty name for a horse. It brought a crease to the corner of my lips, but no more. I'm sure you guys can do better than that? E-mail me on theriddleratbetfair@googlemail.com I'll publish the best, I promise.

I know that Steve McManaman and Robbie Fowler had two horses called 'Somehorse' and 'Anotherhorse' but they never entered them in the same race together.

I'm laying the favourite in the next race. The figures produced earlier show that Stoute's Patkai mightn't stay, so that is good enough for me at [2.54].

As far as backing something is concerned, I like the look of Tiffany Diamond. I'm sure most of the women readers do as well. (Thank you for your kind comments Leanne. A Tiffany Diamond will not be in the post, however.)

Tiffany Diamond certainly handles the ground, and should stay.

Captain Webb has been heavily backed, both on Betfair, and with the regular highstreet bookies.

As far as the earlier races are concerned, plans are already being put in place for some of the runners..

Irish trainer Dermot Weld is keen to run our Coronation Stakes bet, Carribean Sunset, in the American Oaks. "It is a $1m race and I have won it before [with Dimitrova in 2003]. We could also look at the Falmouth Stakes [at Newmarket in July]."

All The Aces, who finished fourth in the King Edward VII, goes for the St Leger and is as short as [12] on Betfair for the Doncaster Classic.

His trainer, Michael Jarvis, said: The Leger is the objective, but he had a hard race today and will have a bit of a break now and maybe have a prep race in mid August."

With that in mind, that [12] may get bigger as time goes by.

4.10
Well, each-way paid in the end. Carribean Sunset just couldn't land a blow, but third place at such inflated odds wasn't too bad. Still, you've got to be impressed by the way Lush Lashes went about it there.

I find the next almost impossible, with cases to be made for so many. I've gone for Henry Cecil's Many Volumes with the hope that he can get his head in front.

That form with Red Rocks looks strong, despite Red Rocks not being quite as good as before. May Volume's race at Goodwood last year, in which he was beaten by Mr Aviator (won Royal Hunt Cup) and Pipedreamer looks solid.

3.25pm
Hmmm. After the press conference for Camponologist's win, I collared Saeed Bin Suroor with the intention of talking about Emirates Skyline in the Wolfreton.

He was in a hurry, so was probably not thinking the straightest, but he said that in his conversation with Frankie Dettori after their success, Dettori had said that the ground was much better than yesterday.

The press release beside me has numerous jockeys saying that the ground is just as firm.

Best look at the times I think, and not listen to these guys...

3.15pm
Godolphin finally get off the mark this meeting. To be honest, Campanologist barely registered on my radar.

In light of Cattermole's hatred of the Queen's Vase, I've done some research for you all myself.
I've been pedigreeing, if that is a word.

Let's face it, the Queen's Vase is a thorough test of stamina, especially for the tender three-year-old things that are contesting this event.

So I've looked at the dosage index of each of the principal runners today to see what it threw up.

For those who are not au fait with these wonderful figures, they give an indication of how stoutely bred horses are. Basically, the lower the index, the more likely the horse is to stay, the higher the index, the more of a sprinter it is.

Consider the dosage indices of the last ten Queen's Vase winners.
Mahler 1.09
Soapy Danger 1.96
Melrose Avenue 1.56
Duke Of Venice 1.5
Shanty Star 3.4
Mamool 0.77
And Beyond 0.86
Dalampour 0.22
Endorsement 0.71
Maridpour 0.71

Still awake? Contrast those figures with those of today's main runners in betting order:

Patkai 2.53
Ebadiyan 1.11
Captain Webb 1.37
Age of Reason 1.48
Amerigo 1.12
Tiffany Diamond 0.74

The most interesting thing about these figures, is that hot favourite Patkai looks unlikely to stay the 2m trip. The rest look like they might, especially Tiffany Diamond, who could be an interesting runner at [21] and 4.4 for a place.

As far as the ground is concerned, it still is riding fast according to the jockeys.

Jimmy Fortune said: "It's pretty similar to yesterday", while a snatched conversation from Frankie after the King Edward VII yielded "It's still the same as yesterday."

Fergus Sweeney was more creative after finishing out of the places on Aahaygirl inthe Albany. He said: "It felt like the M4 on that filly, but she wants some cut."

Carribean Sunset for me in the next. I'm not going to make any rubbish jokes about going off to see one if I win, either....

2.40pm
There was just over £1,200 matched at [6.0] on that winning Bolger filly in-running. She sure pulled it out in the end though didn't she? Her graph that I showed you all earlier looked exactly like Collection's yesterday.

I think I'm going to call it the 'Royal Ascot Right-Angle'. Not very imaginative, I know, but illustrative all the same. From now on, you've really got to seriously consider anything with that profile here haven't you?

Betfair are not up with their 1,000 guineas market yet, but Paddy power go 8-1 favourite about Cuis Ghaire for next year's fillies' Classic at Newmarket.

Mike Cattermole, who got his deep tan from three days in Ibiza last week (just in case you thought it wasn't real), is keen on the chances of Specious in the Coronation. "She ran second to Natagora in the Guineas from a lay-off which was an excellent effort. I think it is fair to say that Infallible has stamina to prove and she's a fair price."

I asked him about the Queen's Vase. "I think the Queen's Vase is an awful race. I'm not looking forward to it one bit. The one I'm interested in is the Wolfreton. I think it is one of the highest quality handicaps around, especially this year."

2pm
Esdaile's been on again. I don't know what his affection with the lucky last is, but he wants to tip in it again. Of all the horses in it, he chooses Vortex on the far side. I look at him with a sort of joking smile. He doesn't flinch. "You're joking me, right?" I say. Esdaile pierces me in the eye and says: "Vortex has placed here four times from seven I get that it's draw high, but that's why its such a big price. They almost won of the far side yesterday. I think the far side is going to win it today. People get to greedy at Royal Ascot and always want a winner. But what's wrong with [11] on Betfair for a place? You've still won money haven't you?"

Quite.

He continued. "The other one I like is Halicarnassus in the Wolfreton. Group form in a handicap, admittedly a good handicap, but it's a big price (It's [21] on Betfair."

1.30pm:
I'm not in the market of taking the mickey out of what other people write, but I thought this was priceless. Turn to page 33 of your Racing Post and read the entry for Hebridean in the 3.05pm For those of your who do not have a copy, I'll put down what it says here.

Before you read it, you should know that Hebridean is a gelding....

"That effort marked him [Hebridean] down as a three-year-old who deserved to compete with the best of his generation but, unfortunately, the fact he is a couple of stones lighter than nature intended means races like the Irish Derby are off the agenda."

Simon Turner must have some seriously heavy tackle...

1pm
Betfair's very own Simon Rowlands has an update for us. It seems that he hasn't been going home after racing and taking it easy. Simon was up all night looking at trainer stats. It seems to have paid off however, as he had this to say.

"Dermot Weld, trainer of Winchester, has not been going well of late. Back in April he was top dog in Ireland in terms of percentage of rivals beaten, with an impressive 78.2%. Over the last month he has dropped to a modest 58.0% and has a poor 4.8% winners to runners.

"It's not enough to make me want to lay Winchester - Weld has had a few run well in that period, including Derby third Casual Conquest and Winchester himself - but it is enough to make me more cautious."

It is, however, something that may prevent me from backing his Carribean Sunset in the Coronation Stakes. I don't think there is much between most of those fillies, and she has been admirably consistent and certainly goes on the ground. At around 23 she looked a big price to me.

12.15pm
I moved guest house last night. The former was far too close to the railway line 9kept me up at night) but allowed me to walk to the course, but the last night's required me to catch a train here, which meant I was here before breakfast was even served. Still, it allowed me to have a serious look at the form, and I reckon we're in for a magnificent day's racing this afternoon.

That Irish thing in the first, Cuis Ghaire, looks bomb-proof. I'm not in the habit of backing short-priced favourites, but it goes on good to firm, both of its runs were in incredibly fast times and it has a good draw. Trainer Jim Bolger and jockey Kevin Manning are not to be sniffed at, either. I can't really think why not to back it. I'm also reliably informed that the translation from the Gaelic means 'Reason to Laugh'. Is that for the layers or the backers?

Cuis Ghaire's market information graph on Betfair resembles Collection's yesterday (Collection won with ease in the second last), and at shorter prices, too. Look for yourselves, it's been heavily backed, and pretty much all of the money for the race centres around Bolger's filly:

http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com//betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=21053590&selectionId=3040751&timeZone=Europe/London®ion=GBR&locale=undefined&brand=betfair¤cy=GBP

Bronze Cannon has been nibbled at in the 3.05pm, while Captain Webb (4.55pm) and Zaahid (5.30pm) have also been backed.

11.45pm
Morning all, welcome to my last blog. I'm off to a wedding tomorrow, which means I'll tell you here and now what is going to win tomorrow's Wokingham. It's Abraham Lincoln.

Yep. Look at the weights. There is only 9lbs between him and the bottom weight, so it's not like he's over burdened. He had the class to give Astronomer Royal a good fight earlier in the season on firm ground, and last year that horse finished third in the St James's Palace and won a French 2,000 Guineas. Chances of any of tomorrow's field being as classy as that?

Men of the moment Aidan O'Brien and Johnny Murtagh are involved and crucially, it seems, he is drawn on the stands' side. All in at around 12 on Betfair, I think he is a priceless wager.

The weather here is breezy, with scattered cloud. Clerk Stickles watered last night after the course was described by many, including the great John Gosden, as firm.

Stickels said last night that he was going to put down 8mm of water on the course. A minute ago however, he stressed that the course is riding firm, good to firm. As Gosden said yesterday, make absolutely sure that your selection can handle this lightning quick ground.

You should also know that Stickels has removed the false rail from Swinley Bottom to the intersection with the straight course. That means there is a strip of fresh ground on the far side for the four races on the round course this afternoon.3.05pm, 3.45p, 4.20pm and 4.55pm.

Non-runner so far are:
2.30pm
10 Forward Feline
16 She's A Shaw Thing
4.20pm
8 Mutajarred
14 Mount Hadley
5.30pm
5 Smart Enough
18 Atlantic Story
20 Express Wish.

Interesting to see that in the Albany and Buckingham Palace, of the five horses to be scratched, four are from high stalls. How many more from the far side, where it has been impossible to win from all week, will pull out throughout the course of this afternoon?