
Lady Luck deserted me on day three but I live to fight another day
Simon Rowlands gives us his latest thoughts on the ongoing action from Royal Ascot
Somehow, somewhere, I seem to have offended Lady Luck, as day three opened as day two ended, with my fancy Spin Cycle being beaten a gnat's whisker in the Norfolk Stakes after trading at [1.03] in running (no, I didn't, before you ask). Still, I put him up win and place, though the latter is scant consolation in the circumstances.
South Central looked a very fast youngster in making all, in the centre of the track, and will take a lot of catching on an easier course at Goodwood in the Molecomb Stakes. One question for Jack Houghton: as it is called the called Norfolk Stakes, should all the horses be inbred?
It is difficult to catch in-running punters unawares, and Cape Amber's headstrong antics in the Ribblesdale Stakes meant that most shunned her once things got under way. Beforehand it was a different story, however, with win prices down to [2.92] and place prices down to [1.49]. She, predictably, dropped right away behind clear-cut winner Michita, though there was little on show here to worry connections of the Oaks winner Look Here.
There was a historic win by Yeats in the Gold Cup, his third in succession in this prestigious race, and I take back what I said about him being possibly a bit lazy and not quite as good as he was. This was by no means a weak field, and yet he won by five lengths and four and a half.
That said, he did look in trouble for a while (touched [4.2] in running) as Coastal Path (low of [2.0]) served it up to him before palpably failing to get home and Geordieland cruised up before nosing ahead just over a furlong out. Unfortunately, Geordieland reverted to big-wuss type by refusing to run on thereafter. In-running punters did not get suckered in and the grey went to a low of only [3.25].
There was great frustration, but a bit of profit for me nonetheless, from the Britannia Handicap. I laid a book on it, as mentioned yesterday, and got into a profitable position, then used up that theoretical profit by having small win and place bets on Masaalek and Yaddree from high stalls. They finished second and third.
At least this race did refute some of the "draw bias" nonsense that has been spouted over recent days. Bankable would probably have won the Royal Hunt Cup easily from a high stall the day before had things panned out similarly. But "if" can be a costly word when dealing with horses at very short odds.
Collection was a pretty impressive winner of the listed Hampton Court Stakes, though they finished in a heap behind him and quite a bit more is likely to be needed when he steps up to Group company, as he surely will.
The same Highclere Thoroughbred colours were carried to victory by Colony in the concluding King George V Handicap, a race trainer Sir Michael Stoute has aimed some good horses at over the years. Colony provided Ryan Moore with his first Royal Ascot winner after plenty of attempts. I can only imagine how he must have felt...
I remain down, but by not as much as previously, and am definitely not out. Looking ahead, Cuis Ghaire has shown form good enough to win an Albany Stakes as often as not, and that's what she gets a chance to do at 2:30 on Friday. She won't be a big price but I find it hard to see her getting beaten.
Winchester, who beat the Oaks second Moonstone on his reappearance, looks like coming into his own at a mile and a half in the King Edward VII Stakes at 3:05 and is worth an interest. Hebridean has been beating third-raters in Ireland and may just be slightly better at two furlongs less in any case, so I am considering a place lay of him in what is quite a competitive affair.
My approach for the Coronation Stakes at 3:45 will depend a lot on the state of the ground. Infallible is unknown on ground firmer than good, Nahoodh ran poorly on it last time in Ireland and Lush Lashes goes on it but may find things happening a bit quickly at this shorter trip if it prevails. They are all potential lays if the rains don't arrive, with Spacious looking more solid win and place back material.
I find it difficult to get a handle on the Wolferton Handicap at 4:20, so it's straight on to the Queen's Vase at 4:55. This is one of the more intriguing races of the meeting in my book, as few three-year-olds are likely to stay two miles at this stage of their careers. The Irish-trained Tiffany Diamond and Ebadiyan make most appeal, though you should consider supporting the latter in running, as he has taken a long time to warm up in his races to date and yet is likely to show stamina in abundance.
The likely favourite Patkai is stoutly bred on his dam's side but is by Indian Ridge, whose stamina index is just 7.5 furlongs and who has not sired a winner at this far in living memory. I have already laid him at less than [3.0] and may well go in again.
The concluding Buckingham Palace Handicap at 5:30 features 28 declared runners, plus four possible reserves, and a handful of pace-setters scattered across the course. Pretty much anything could happen (though hopefully not the ludicrous situation whereby those drawn 20 and above come to the stand side) and I am interested in place laying anything at a short price. Iguazu Falls ([6.2]), Zaahid ([6.0]), Atlantic Story ([13.0]) and Docofthebay ([11.0]) are at the head of the win market at the time of writing.
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Just a quick update. I was trawling through some Irish trainer stats late last night (yes, I know, I know) and discovered that Dermot Weld, trainer of Winchester, has not been going well of late.
Back in April he was top dog in Ireland in terms of % of rivals beaten, with an impressive 78.2%. Over the last month he has dropped to a modest 58.0% and has a poor 4.8% winners to runners.
It's not enough to make me want to lay Winchester - Weld has had a few run well in that period, including Derby third Casual Conquest and Winchester himself - but it is enough to make me more cautious.
Simon Rowlands | 20 June 2008