Betfair Official Blog

It's been tough going on day one of Royal Ascot, can my second day selections find more success?

Click here to view market

Simon Rowlands looks back on a tricky Tuesday in Berkshire and outlines his betting approach for Wednesday

Day one of Royal Ascot 2008 is not one that I will be looking back on fondly. It was a day of near misses, as well as not-so-near misses.

Darjina came up agonisingly short in the Queen Anne Stakes as Haradasun pulled out more to win by a head. This was a messy race, in which they went little pace for the first furlong and a bit, and little more than three lengths separated the first ten. Cesare looked unlucky in failing to get through traffic in time, though Cesare often looks unlucky. At least I didn't back him this time.

There was a major surprise in the King's Stand Stakes, in which the Spanish-trained Equiano made all and held off the Aussie challenger Takeover Target and my fancy Fleeting Spirit. I was in Madrid last week and was told where the servicios were and frequently that the Torres/Villa pairing was the best thing since sliced "pan", but no-one bothered to inform me that Spain harboured a future Royal Ascot winner.

Henrythenavigator was a far more predictable winner of a St James's Palace Stakes that I sat out, though he did not have a great deal to spare over Raven's Pass. The race was run in course-record time, and all in all the times pointed to the ground being just on the firm side of good, which is what we were promised.

The Coventry went in last-to-first style to Art Connoisseur, who looked an above-average winner and a colt with a bright future, probably as a sprinter, for all that he was not stopping at the end. It's interesting to note that the winner came from stall 2 and the fourth from stall 18. The draw probably has little effect on the straight track at Ascot, though in any given race the distribution of pace can make it appear otherwise.

More heartache followed for me as Liberate went under in the Ascot Stakes, having led in the final furlong and been matched at around [1.3] I should have "got out" in-running. At least I learnt from my mistake in the last and laid off Bushranger at [2.0] in play, though it would still have been better had the well-backed youngster held off the complete rag (Betfair SP [170.0]!) Flashman's Papers.

That was then, this is now. Tomorrow is another day, and all that.

Wednesday's action kicks off at 2:30 with the Group 3 Jersey Stakes over 7 furlongs. I am interested in Dream Eater for a place, but it'll need to be at [3.5] or bigger. Stimulation is a rock-solid proposition and I can't see him being far away, so a win and a place back are recommended. Double-figure odds look too big for a horse which is suited by the trip, acts on the going and has every chance of reversing the places with Calming Influence on better terms.

Anyone who backed Baharah at Epsom on Derby Day is surely going to go in again in the Group 2 Windsor Forest Stakes at 3:05. I did and I know that I will. In summary, Baharah got a shocking ride in a race run at a slow pace but finished strongly enough to confirm that she was every bit as good as her impressive win at this course and distance in May made her look. There are a few who usually get on with it in this field and a repeat of the Epsom farce seems unlikely. Anything over [5.0] on Betfair represents good value.

To lay, or not to lay? That is the question. The Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes at 3:45 sees a short-priced contender in Duke of Marmalade and the 4:20 Royal Hunt Cup another in Bankable. The former has 12 rivals and a few pounds to spare on the book. The latter has even more in hand in theory but has 29 rivals. I am going to sit out the Prince of Wales but cannot resist laying Bankable at up to [3.5]. There is nothing whatsoever wrong with his form but an awful lot can go wrong in a race like this - draw/pace biases, crowding, jockey error and so on - and it remains to be seen if he'll be as good on this ground as he is on softer. I remember backing a horse called Hadeer under similar circumstances in this race in 1986, only for it to sink without trace. Yes, I really am that old. And that unlucky.

Danehill Destiny is the early favourite for the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at 4:55, but the early Irish juvenile fillies look exceptionally strong as a group this year and Heart Shaped and Sugar Free are my two against the field here. Heart Shaped has the form in the book but Sugar Free looked as if she "could be anything" (and she is indeed bred to be pretty darn good) on her only start. Some clever person got [30.0] when the market opened, but she may start half or even a third of that price.

Finally, we have the listed Sandringham Handicap at 5:30. This looks one of the tougher races to solve, but an interest in Illusion - with a view to taking out insurance in running as she's likely to go well for a long way - and Shabiba could pay off. The latter looks a good place proposition, and remember that there will be four places on offer on Betfair even if the 16-runner field is depleted with non-runners.