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God bless Bankable as jollie falters to the joy of the layers

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Simon Rowlands has definitely found the Ascot waters on the choppy side, but the occasional winner has kept him afloat. What's his take on Thursday then? Read on...

They say every cloud has a silver lining and I woke up this morning to the realisation of one. The 169/1 shot that turned over my fancy Bushranger yesterday was by Exceed And Excel, who I have backed to be top first-season sire on Betfair's "Breeding & Bloodstock" market. It's not much, but, hey, every little helps!

Wednesday's action kicked off with an impressive win in the Jersey Stakes from Aqlaam, who quickened like a good 'un then ran around in front. The 2,000 Guineas fifth Dream Eater was third in this, beaten about two-and-a-half lengths less than he had been by Henythenavigator at Newmarket, which arguably puts the winner's performance in some sort of context. I did have a small place bet on Dream Eater at around [3.1] after the withdrawal of a couple of his rivals, but that perhaps just underlines my lack of discipline, and it was not enough to offset the loss incurred by place "good thing" Stimulation, who was (you guessed it) fourth.

I am getting tired of making excuses for Baharah, who got a poor run and was eased to finish last in the Windsor Forest Stakes. She owes me one: sorry, two. At least I did not get caught up in the in-running mayhem as Sabana Perdida came late to deprive Heaven Sent, on which over £10,000 was matched at [1.02] and [1.03]. This is a Group 2 in name but took less winning than most races at the level.

There was a brief point about two furlongs out in the Prince of Wales's Stakes when it looked as if the heavily backed Duke of Marmalade (SP Evens, Betfair SP 2.22) was going to have to fight pretty hard to win. Then, 150 yards later, he had it sewn up, in the end winning by four lengths. The winner has more than a bit of Dylan Thomas (second in this 12 months ago before winning the King George, Irish Champion and Arc) about him. It should be pointed out, however, that the fifth Ask (who is better at a mile and a half) would have been a fair bit closer but for being hampered and that apparent "no-hoper" Stotsfold was less than two lengths behind the placed horses.

At about 4:25 I discover that there is a God and that his preferred means of divine retribution on those who back short-priced handicap snips like Bankable is the draw. There may not be anything in itself wrong with being drawn 25 of 29 on the straight track at Ascot, but there is everything wrong with finding yourself in a small group a dozen or so lengths back after just a couple of furlongs while everything makes a beeline for the stand rail. The first four came from stalls 4, 1, 5 and 6. Bankable (Betfair SP [2.91]) did an astounding amount of running to get fifth, and I, along with my fellow win-and-place layers, breathed a huge sigh of relief...

Sugar Free ran well in the Queen Mary Stakes, but not well enough for those who backed her at big odds, finishing fifth. Heart Shaped ran a stinker, as did market leader Danehill Destiny. Less than a length separated the first five and the form is likely to prove unexceptional.

Well, you were warned about Illusion in the last ("an interest in Illusion...with a view to taking out insurance in-running as she's likely to go well for a long way"), and congratulations to anyone who laid off at short odds on the filly, who went off at [7.96] on Betfair. About £20,000 was matched at [1.03] or less before she was chinned on the line. I got off, but only in part, at slight odds-against. Fool. Place back Shabiba (Betfair place SP [2.54]) did the business in third, but I can't help feeling I should have been many more quids in...

I am down after day two, but not out. I am tempted to throw a sickie (I am self-employed so can always give myself a dressing down at the same time) on Thursday, but there are surely some good bets to be had. All the following comments should be viewed in the context of the possibility of heavy rain and a ground change. It may be worth holding at least some of your horses until the state of the surface is a bit clearer.

I am likely to start off with a win and place interest in Spin Cycle in the Norfolk Stakes at 2:30. The Bryan Smart-trained youngster, a son of the aforementioned Exceed And Excel, seems well suited by a fast 5f and recorded a good time two starts ago. This year's race looks like taking less winning than usual.

Cape Amber is worth considering for an in-running win and/or place lay in the Ribblesdale Stakes at 3:05. She has arguably the best form but pulled hard in the Oaks last time and could be coming up for air late on after going well here. You should respond to events as they unfold when betting in-running, so there can be no hard-and-fast rules on this one, but it also pays to educate yourself on what the likelier scenarios are in advance.

It may seem perverse to be negative about a horse which has won seven of its last 10 starts and is going for a hat-trick of victories in the Ascot Gold Cup, but I think Yeats is worth laying at around [2.5] in the 3:45. He seems to have become just a bit lazy in recent starts and proved little with his workmanlike reappearance win.

My approach to the Britannia Handicap at 4:20 is to lay those market principals that are drawn high and to try to get myself a green (all-profit) or near-green book in the expectation of a general drift. As mentioned above, the draw may not stop something winning from a high-numbered stall, but the perception of a bias in the minds of jockeys and punters alike can be as good as a bias in reality for a trader. Redford, Flawed Genius, Rattan, Masaalek (who I would quite fancy in normal circumstances) and Yaddree are all drawn 16 or higher and at the head of the early market.

I can make neither head nor tail of the Hampton Court Stakes at 4:55. If you can, then why not share your views by posting a comment below?

Finally, the "getting out stakes" - the King George V Handicap at 5:30 - looks as tough as ever to solve. You need stamina for this (that's the horses, not the humans, but then again...) and I am interested in Tighnabruaich and Fiulin to small stakes. The former is a son of Rainbow Quest, from the family of top-notch stayer Le Moss, while the latter is a progressive son of Galileo and is trained by the under-rated Marco Botti.

I do hope it gets easier on Friday and Saturday!