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Gold Cup Betting: Why neither of these men may be lifting the trophy on Friday afternoon...

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Jack Houghton outlines the case against Kauto and Denman

The clash of Kauto Star and Denman has loomed over this year's festival for months, so it would seem a little remiss not to dedicate a preview of its own to the big race.

A couple of weeks ago, when asked to predict how the Gold Cup would be run, I hinted that perhaps backing both the principals, at a combined price of around [1.27], was the value call. After all, what else was there in the staying chasing ranks to beat them?

Well, some time and some further study later, I'm turning turn-coat, and advising punters to LAY both Kauto Star and Denman in the win market. I also fancy the chances of Afistfullofdollars, and will be backing him for a win and a place.

There are numerous reasons for this change of heart, but I first started getting cold feet about the duo having just felt overwhelmed by the amount of publicity they were receiving. Sure, it's great for racing, but is the presentation of the Gold Cup as a two horse race really accurate?

Nick Mordin - a racing tipster sometimes accused of firing the arrow and then painting the target, but nonetheless an original thinker - once wrote an article demonstrating that a level stakes profit could be made when opposing horses who generated a disproportionate amount of newspaper column inches. The theory was they always started at odds shorter than their bare form should have allowed.

I don't remember the mechanics of how Mordin determined whether a horse was generating a "disproportionate" amount of coverage, but one thing is certain: for all the hype that Denman's supporters are bringing to this year's Gold Cup, Kauto Star's followers have already paved the way with oodles of hyperbole.

So yes, the most likely scenario is that one of these horses will win (the market says they have a combined 80 per cent chance), but surely, from a value perspective, they both have to be opposed?

Kauto Star goes into the race with an official rating of 180, only 3lbs ahead of Exotic Dancer, and yet the latter is available at more than ten times the price of the former. Some would argue though that Kauto Star's slight numerical superiority belies a far greater competitive superiority. Because in the five times the two horses have met, Kauto Star has finished in front of Exotic Dancer every time. And it's hard to forget what happened in the King George. Tony McCoy, trying something new to beat his nemesis, allowed Exotic Dancer to go on in the back straight, only for Kauto Star to trounce him by further than usual.

But the fact remains, on their best form, there is only 3lbs - or a bad jump versus a good jump - between the two horses, so surely the price discrepancy is unjustified?

Denman's price is even harder to fathom. He is actually officially rated as 1lb inferior to Exotic Dancer, and yet is a tenth of the price. And although Denman's victories in the Hennessy and Aon were visually impressive, the only time he has run in an open Grade One, the Lexus, he was workmanlike, only managing a four length defeat of The Listener.

Furthermore, he has yet to return a speed rating within 15lbs of the best of either Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer. In fact, five of the horses in the field have bettered Denman in that department. Sure, it often takes participation in a top-class race to return a monster speed rating, but I'm not prepared to take [2.9] in finding out.

On this basis I'll be laying both horses in the win market. I'll lay Kauto Star for around 65 per cent of my money, and Denman for the remaining 35 per cent. At the current prices, this means I'll lose a little should either of them win, but will hit the jackpot should they both get beaten.

Exotic Dancer will be a popular choice to do just that, but I'm really keen on Afistfullofdollars, whose win at Fairyhouse in February was impressive for a horse having only his fourth run over fences, and I'll also be backing him to win and place.