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Cheltenham Festival Odds: Is Ashkazar the banker on Day One?

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Jack Houghton looks ahead to the opening day of the 2008 Cheltenham Festival...

Supreme Novices'

In recent years this curtain-raiser has typically had a short-priced plunge horse - Amaretto Rose, Sweet Wake, Brave Inca, Back In Front, Like-A-Butterfly - whose performance or lack thereof has proved pivotal to punters' betting banks for remaining Festival races. This year's contest is different: in the opening betting exchanges there are six horses trading at around the [10.0] mark.

Of interest is that three of the betting principals - Muirhead, Rippling Ring and Captain Cee Bee - have all failed to return a speed rating anywhere approaching the best on offer in the field, so supporting them is taking it on faith that they have the ability to operate at championship pace. I'll be laying them all for a place.

The two most likely winners in my book are last year's bumper winner, Cork All Star, and Pigeon Island, who both represent value at their current double-figure odds. But I'll also be spreading some money around on Tranquil Sea, Pasco and Deep Purple at much bigger odds - all of whom already have the requisite ability against the clock to win this race.

Arkle

No horse epitomises the rapidly changing fortunes of Cheltenham as well as Noland, who was traded at 1000 (999-1) in-running before charging up the hill to collar Straw Bear on the line and win the 2006 Supreme Novices' Hurdle. His supporters will be hoping for a less heart-stopping performance from him this year, and based on the evidence to date - six straight wins, impeccable jumping over fences to date and a good Cheltenham record - they should have little to worry about.

However, the [3.25] currently available is probably too short in this competitive field. Kruguyrova, on the other hand, represents massive value at [17.0]. He beat Ring The Boss last time at Warwick, gets more weight this time around, and is yet five points bigger in the betting than that rival.

Champion Hurdle

There's very much a changing-of-the-guard feel about this year's Champion, with the expected market leaders all absent through injury or alternative race selection. Sizing Europe is a ludicrously short price given what he has achieved on the clock and I will be laying him in the win and place markets.

Sublimity represents a similar story. He was an extremely fortunate winner of last year's Champion Hurdle after the jockeys on the main fancies set a suicidal pace that Sublimity - either by design, luck or just an inability to match it - didn't go with. He looked impressive in winning, but was simply running past tired horses. I'll be laying him for a place.

The four most likely winners of the race are Harchibald, Osana, Punjabi and Straw Bear, and at the large prices on offer, I'll be splitting my stake and backing them all to win.

William Hill Trophy

This race reads like a roll-call of has-beens and nearly-weres, with the likes of L'ami, Monkerhostin, Fundamentalist and Ollie Magern all running.

L'ami is incredibly well weighted but his form has been woeful of late and he hasn't won a race in 19 attempts. Admittedly, they were largely much better races than this, but it requires some faith to support him. Monkerhostin hasn't showed his best for three years and Ollie Magern is probably still recuperating from trying to take-on Denman in his penultimate start, where he was rewarded for his efforts with an 89 length drubbing.

It's hard to see why An Accordion is the current favourite. Up 11lbs for a half-length victory at Doncaster last time, he has a lot to find on both the speed and handicap ratings, and I can't see him winning. The same goes for Patsy Hall, who has a fair bit to find on the figures and is his shortish price because of connections rather than any solid form on offer.

That leaves me with Fundamentalist, Bob Hall and Mon Nome, but to be honest I'd sit back and watch this race as it's incredibly difficult to decipher.

BGC Cross Country

Back the three horses trained by Edna Bolger. If anyone else has a better plan, please let me know by commenting below.

The Fred Winter

It's difficult to see beyond Ashkazar in this. Winner of a tough looking Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday, it's hard to see anything else here living up to that form and I think the favourite represents value at his current price of [3.65].

However, if you're worried about him having recovered in time, and would prefer something at a bigger price, then both Grand Schlem and Chapoturgeon (which probably translates differently to the "fish hat" I've come up with) have proved their ability to perform at championship pace and represent solid win and place chances.