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Cheltenham Betting: Nicholls is no shoo-in for top trainer

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Six reasons why the Ditcheat master will not take the top trainer mantle

Paul Nicholls is an even shorter-priced favourite to win the Cheltenham top trainer award (currently [1.51] to win it on Betfair) than his wonder horse Kauto Star is to take the Gold Cup [2.08].

As it has become an offence bordering on heresy to even point out that there are other horses running in the Gold Cup besides Kauto Star and Denman, the idea that one of Nicholls' closest rivals, such as Alan King [9.0] or Nicky Henderson [11.5] might take the overall Festival crown feels like a theory only a madman would venture. But not even the most successful trainers have enjoyed uninterrupted glory at Cheltenham, so maybe Mr King and Mr Henderson are worth another look after all....

Trainers simply don't win the top trainer honour three years in succession

Nicholls was the top trainer in 2006 and 2007 and thus will be bidding for a third successive triumph at this year's festival. However, no trainer has managed to scoop the award outright three years running since 1980.

Gold Cup winners don't often win the top trainer prize

Nicholls is a massive favourite to land the Gold Cup with both Kauto Star and Denman running from his stables. Yet only twice in the last ten years has the Gold Cup winner won the leading trainer award as well.

He's got some serious competition in Alan King

Alan King narrowly missed out on the trainer's prize last year with three winners at Cheltenham and will return this year with around 15 runners. All three of his winners last year (My Way De Solzen, Voy Por Ustedes and Katchit) will take to the track once more and with the likes of Group Captain and Franchoek also potential winners, King is a serious contender. In five of the past 11 years, three winners has been enough to take the title outright, and King is really determined to beat Nicholls.

From the Guardian, Tuesday March 4, 2008: "At Newbury, after Denman's win, the trainer Alan King apparently spoke out in despair, suggesting that Nicholls' pre-eminence might be bad for racing.

"I don't think he said that," Nicholls protests. "He certainly doesn't believe that. Kingy is a good young trainer and he was gutted to have lost. He admitted his disappointment to a journalist and it got blown up. It took me 15 years to get to this point and Kingy is following in my footsteps. He mirrors me in a lot of ways - especially in his desire to win."

Nicky Henderson is no slouch either

Henderson is the third most successful trainer at the Cheltenham festival of all time (31 wins), has the best Cheltenham record of all the trainers competing at this year's festival and has been the top trainer at Cheltenham on a remarkable eight occasions.

Henderson may well bring 21 horses to this year's Festival and his assault on the prize will be spearheaded by Punjabi and Afsoun in the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle.

Two wins for anyone might be enough

On seven occasions since 1987, the top trainer has only had two winners at Cheltenham. Four of the last six winners have won just three races, so with such few wins required, a surprise is by no means impossible.

And it's not all about winning

If there is a tie it will go down to the number of second places. If there is still a tie, the number of third places will be taken into account and the award will be shared if there remains a tie after that. Such is the enthusiasm for Nicholls' horses that they tend to get backed blindly and go off at false prices, suggesting some of his rides are not quite as formidable as the bettors seem to think.