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Cheltenham Festival Special Bets... Fun, but also profitable?

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Wayne Bailey is betraying his roots as a serious punter by, wait for it, trying his hand in the special bets market. Oh the horror!

Novelty markets. They seem to be cropping up everywhere. I'm not very old by any means, but when I first started betting, you had two choices when it came to having a punt - racing and (very few) football matches. How things have changed!

I must admit I've never been a fan of novelty markets, mainly because I haven't made much money out of them to date. The fact that I don't watch 'Big Brother', the 'Eurovision song contest' or 'I'm a celebrity when I get out of here' probably has a lot to do with my lack of success. One think I do watch a lot however, is horse racing - and the Cheltenham specials market has recently caught my eye. It might be considered a fun market, but is there any money to be made? I reckon so, and I'm certainly going to try my best to do just that in 2008...

Gold Cup: Paul Nicholls 1-2

The 2008 Gold Cup is one of the most anticipated races in years, and were all dying to see Kauto Star and Denman battle it out up the hill, leaving the rest of the field behind. But what are the chances of this dream scenario actually taking place?
It is by no means certain to happen. This is horse racing, a sport where the phrase 'anything can happen' is particularly apt. One of the horses could simply have a bad day, one could fall, one could get hampered, and let's not forget... there are actually other horses in this race! Personally, I hope this turns out to be the race of the decade, but I'll happily lay at 2.4 and enjoy a consolation prize should the expected battle not materialise.

Conclusion: Lay the Paul Nicholls 1-2

Irish trained winners

It's fair to say that Ireland does not have an incredibly strong team of horses this year, but we're capable of dominating a few races such as the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Bumper and perhaps the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. The English have the chases sewn up, so there's no much point looking there. Throw in the odd unexpected winner over the four days, and we might be looking at 3-5 Irish horses finding the winners' enclosure this year. Unless you want to dutch all three prices, four winners seems like a reasonable figure.

Conclusion: Back Ireland to have 4 winners at the festival

Longest SP winner

Every year, we get surprises. Ebaziyan opened up the meeting at 40/1 last year, and Joes Edge followed up with 50/1 later on. In fact, four of the past five years have thrown up big priced winners of 40/1 plus. On that basis, the price of 2.05 for it to happen again seems quite appealing. Of course, this bet is based on traditional industry SP. It will be interesting to see how this years long shot prices compare to Betfair SP!

Conclusion: Back 40/1+ in the Longest SP winner market

Top Jockey

I dedicated an article to this a couple of weeks ago, and nothing has changed my opinion since. Ruby Walsh has the cream of the crop at his disposal. Nicholls is sure to fire in a few winners, and Ruby should also get the call from Willie Mullins too. On average, it only takes three to four wins at the festival to earn the top jockey prize, so Ruby's price of 2.42 is an absolute steal!

Conclusion: Back Ruby Walsh to be top jockey at the festival

Top Trainer

Have a look at the list of horses that Paul Nicholls has entered, and it reads like a who's who of top horses. He's simply been on fire this season, and looks set to continue his form at the festival. His current price of 1.55 is a little on the short side, but realistically, there is not a lot of challengers.

Conclusion: Back Paul Nicholls to be top trainer at the festival

* Cheltenham is all about opinions. If you agree or disagree with the above, feel free to say so and post a comment. Similarly, if you've spotted something we haven't - post it up!