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Cheltenham betting: We won't see 'the luck of the Irish' on day three

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Wayne Bailey casts romance aside and recommends betting on the horses from this side of the Irish Sea on the third day of the Cheltenham Festival.

Last week, I mentioned that punters should not be patriotic when punting. Backing locally trained horses might be a bit of fun, and adds a certain level of excitement and rivalry to the festival, but let's face it: it aint a sensible way to bet. If you want to have a fun bet, there's plenty of dreadful reality TV shows out there that offer novelty punting. Cheltenham is the greatest horse racing festival in the world, so it deserves to be given respect and taken seriously.
As proud as I am to be Irish, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and stick with the English on day three.

There's not much point in looking at the handicaps just yet as it's still unclear which horses will make the final line-up, but the two big races of the day are offering some value with just two weeks to go:

Ryanair Chase

All the talk in Ireland lately has been of Mossbank, the Michael Hourigan trained eight-year-old, who came an impressive second to Denman in this year's Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. He finished 2 ½ lengths in front of The Listener that day, and it's probably fair to say it was his best career performance to date. Impressive stuff indeed - so why then, am I laying him at [6.4]?
Well, for a start, I'm getting a serious sense of déjà vu!

Hands up who else can remember a certain Hourigan trained horse who regularly did well in the Lexus, and was considered Ireland's great Cheltenham hope? That's right, I'm talking about Beef Or Salmon. A brilliant horse at home in Ireland, 'Beefy' won ten grade one races, and also the hearts of the Irish betting public. Collectively, the Irish lost tens of thousands following this horse at Cheltenham, and I've a feeling that the same thing is going to happen with Mossbank.

Hourigan may be one of Ireland's top trainers, but he has an appalling record when sending horses to the UK, and I'd be happy to take him on for this reason alone. In the past five years, he's sent 49 horses to Britain, and won on just two occasions. So why can he not seem to win when he crosses the water? Is it his preparation? His travel arrangements? I don't know the answer, but a statistic like that is too hard to ignore. A much more interesting contender is the English trained L'Antartique, who is returning to his preferred distance. Ferdy Murphy's gelding loves the course, and won on both occasions when he appeared here. He has the stamina that's required for this unique course, and I'd be very surprised if he's not placed at the very least.

World Hurdle

Again, it's time to side with the English horse, and it's almost impossible to oppose course specialist Inglis Drever. Some time ago, I noted how it was profitable to back Howard Johnson's horses if they won or came second last time out, and Inglis Drever's class was there for all to see when beating Blazing Bailey in the Cleeve Hurdle back in January. Is there any reason to oppose him? I can't think of any, but if you can - post your thoughts as I'd love to hear them. His current price of [2.4] may not be huge, but it certainly looks like one of the festival bankers.

Conclusions:

• Lay Mossbank in the Ryanair Chase
• Back L'Antartique in the Ryanair Chase place market
• Back Inglis Drever to win the World Hurdle

So there you have it... As much as I love Ireland and it's racing traditions, I also like my Betfair balance, and intend on keeping it intact during the festival. The Irish can have their day on the Tuesday, but I'll bet that Thursday belongs to England.

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