
Grand National Tips: Luck of the Irish could count for plenty again at Aintree
With eight days left to the big one, Graham Cunningham assesses the odds from Aintree
One week to go and, bit by bit, the last drops of ante-post juice are being squeezed out of Betfair's Grand National market.
Of course, there is still time for gambles to develop - witness the bizarre late surge which saw Monkerhostin sent off 8-1 co favourite last year - but time is running short to identify a horse capable of going off much shorter than his current price.
So, it's cards on the table time. I've opposed Cloudy Lane at [8.0] on the basis that he is most unlikely to shorten further and backed Slim Pickings and King Johns Castle at [15.0] and [46.0] respectively.
I doubt I will hang onto all of the Cloudy Lane lay - after all, he is thrown in at the weights - but with 39 horses and 30 daunting fences to overcome it's essential that I keep him as a small loser in the book.
The case for Slim Pickings is simple and revolves around the fact that he ran a screamer for third last year and has been trained with a return to Aintree in mind ever since.
Indeed, he ran even better than the bare result suggests last season - when he was probably sent for home a shade earlier than ideal by Barry Geraghty - and another clear round will make him tough to keep out of the frame again.
King Johns Castle was a very interesting win and place bet at [40.0] plus, as he jumps accurately and showed improved form when upped to three miles in the Pierse Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Whether he is great value at [18.0] or thereabouts after the money came in floods for him in midweek is debateable, but it wouldn't surprise to see him shorten further if AP McCoy opts to ride him ahead of Butler's Cabin.
Of the rest, I am lukewarm on Bewleys Berry ([19.5]), Mr Pointment ([21.0]), Snowy Morning ([26.0]) and last year's runner-up Mckelvey ([26.0]), while Comply Or Die has clear claims after his impressive Eider Chase success but has halved in price to [14.0] after punters gradually cottoned on to his chance.
Simon ([16.5]) was tanking along when he fell on the second circuit last year. He has to be a strong contender again with the excellent Dominic Elsworth booked, while Chelsea Harbour ([25.0])and Patsy Hall ([48.0]) are two potential late springers in the market given the impressive recent record of Irish raiders at Aintree.
However, there comes a point at which you have to get off the fence as regards the National. I simply can't justify backing Cloudy Lane at current odds, but Slim Pickings, King Johns Castle, Simon and Patsy Hall form a short list which will surely give us something to shout about in the world's greatest steeplechase.
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