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Grand National Guide: Narrowing down your selections to a manageable few

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Ian Dean doesn't pretend that picking the winner of the Grand National is easy but talks us through a few basic steps we can take to ensure we get a good run for our money

Trying to find the Grand National winner is, indeed, a national institution. Some will spend months searching, playing the ante-post markets. Others will take a quick glance at the runners on Saturday morning, waiting for the name of a pet or significant other to jump out at them. The day Fido's Love Bunny obliges will be a bleak one for the bookmaking industry.

History tells us the National is not quite the lottery some would have you believe. True, Silver Birch was a 33/1-shot when triumphing 12 months ago, but the previous decade had thrown up two winning favourites at 7/1, two gambled-on 10/1 scorers and four others who were shouted home at no bigger than 16/1.

That said, a field of 40 runners is daunting for any punter. The first step in narrowing them down used to be to ignore all those out of the handicap proper. However, this has become less helpful in the last three renewals when there have been no horses out of the handicap proper!
Instead, attentions are now more productively turned to the upper echelons of the weights. It is 25 years since Corbiere became the last horse to carry more than 11stone 1lb to glory, and only the immortal Red Rum has successfully shouldered in excess of 11stone 5lb since the 1950s.

So dismissing all those above 11stone has been a major help for punters. A word of warning probably is in order, however, as four horses have carried 11-10 or more into the runner-ups' berth in the last 10 years, Royal Auclair and Hedgehunter knocking on the door in 2005 and 2006 respectively. The trends boys who took a battering at Cheltenham recently will find the National dishing out similar punishment one of these days.

The best shortcut to the winner of late has been to concentrate on the Irish raiders. Following a lengthy period in the wilderness with the regard to National success, Irish eyes have been bloodshot no less than six times in the last nine years, including the last three. The betting suggests 2007 third Slim Pickings (currently available to back at [15.0] on Betfair) and the progressive Chelsea Harbour ([23.0]) are the leading hopes of extending that monopoly.

It's almost stating the obvious to suggest the other major Nationals would be a suitable stepping stone to Aintree, but such a straightforward line of thinking would have reaped profit in four of the last ten years, with two Irish National victors (Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde) and two from the Welsh equivalent (Earth Summit and Silver Birch) repeating their heroics.
Next week's race is likely to feature the two most recent Irish National winners Point Barrow and Butlers Cabin, and they are available at [28.0] and [20.0] respectively on Betfair at the time of writing.

For those who like their form more recent, Timeform ratings confirm Cloudy Lane, Comply Or Die and Snowy Morning to be the notable improvers since the weights, suggesting they figure on a lenient mark. Cloudy Lane goes into the big day on a roll, and it's no surprise he heads the Betfair market at [8.8].

Getting a horse into the frame in the National can seem like a win, and the Betfair place market is an alternative for those who want a greater chance of a return. The issue with a traditional each-way wager is that the backer is forced to have a win bet on an outsider he fancies to merely sneak into third or fourth. So essentially his stake is doubled for the same return. Much better in these circumstances to invest the entire amount on a place only bet.

Another popular angle is betting on the number of finishers, a market taken seriously by many. Here, a viewing of the weekly weather watch on Countryfile can be more vital than any amount of form study, as the state of the going is the leading factor. No less than 21 completed on good going in 2005, contrasting with just 4 (two of whom were remounted!) when the heavens opened in 2001.

Whatever approach you take, the first rule is to enjoy the occasion. Personally, I find cold logic goes west the moment the tapes go up. By the time the field is haring across the Melling Road, I would want 5/1 to spot my fancy and evens for it to get over the first. But I wouldn't miss it for the world. It still gets the adrenaline going like no other race in the calendar.