Grand National Betting / Johnny Ward / 22 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Johnny Ward looks forward to next year's Grand National and offers his opinion on some of the horses already doing well in the market for April's race.

"Nicholls will protect his mark and Tricky Trickster looks more than capable of improving beyond his present rating. He looks at [22.0] the most likely winner from that yard and the best value on Betfair."

The Aintree Grand National is still about half-a-year away, but there may be a little value about because it is not generally on the minds yet of antepost punters.

The race, of course, continues to elude perhaps the most talented trainer in Paul Nicholls and the champion jockey in Tony McCoy. There may be reasons for this beyond bad luck: Nicholls, arguably, has not really laid out horses for the race like other trainers; some argue that McCoy's style of riding is not absolutely ideal around Aintree's four and a half miles.

Whatever, Nicholls has already earmarked a campaign built around National participation for one of his summer recruits. Tricky Trickster, bought for £320,000 on the back of his impressive National Hunt Chase win at Cheltenham, has a rating of 149 as a consequence of that win and it must be said that recent victors in that contest have made little impression at Aintree, albeit while doing well in other Nationals.

Those that defer to trends and stats will also be keen to stress that the son of Oscar will only turn seven next year and the April renewal will be the 70th since a seven-year-old last won the Grand National. I would put more stock in Nicholls' judgement, the fact that the horse is very much lightly-raced (six runs under rules) and is thought highly enough of to prompt his trainer to say he will get a Gold Cup entry.

Moreover, the form of his festival win has been endorsed in the form of Hennessy's Bet365 Gold Cup success and Niche Market having done likewise in the Irish National. Nicholls will protect his mark and Tricky Trickster looks more than capable of improving beyond his present rating. He looks at [22.0] the most likely winner from that yard and the best value on Betfair.

Denman is roughly the same price but I would not be tempted to back him at double his present odds. For a start, he may not be the horse he was; secondly, and perhaps most importantly, top weights face an incredible task in this race (11st 1lbs is the highest a winner has carried in over a quarter of a century). If I were his owner, I would target Denman at the traditional Grade Ones, particularly in Ireland on softer ground.

Nicholls' options for the race are enviable to say the least and Big Fella Thanks has to be of interest. Only a seven-year-old in last year's race, he was sent off at 14-1 and finished a quite respectable sixth, having blundered his chance away four out. However, his form suggests that the Primitive Rising gelding really needs soft ground to be at his best and that is unlikely to materialise.

Another leading fancy in the market, Black Apalachi, will also be trained this term very much with the April spectacular in mind. For whatever reason, assuming he turns up, he will bid to avoid three successive failures to finish in the race, but Dessie Hughes' charge - who will be 11 next year - has plenty going for him otherwise. He was travelling nicely and had leapt with few problems before unseating at Beechers last season. That said, he would not strike as an obvious market anomaly at [34.0] given his race-completion record and there is no guarantee he is worth his mark in the race last year (153).

Gordon Elliott knows how to win this race and Backstage is quite a classy, improving horse not to be discounted. I am personally involved with Operation Houdini in Ireland who will be aimed at all the major staying races this year and if you can get 1000 on Betfair about him winning the National, do not be afraid to chance a few pound on him either.

Tags: Bet365 Gold Cup, Big Fella Thanks, Black Apalachi, Gordon Elliot, Operation Houdini., Paul Nicholls, Tony McCoy, Tricky Trickster