Grand National Betting / Wayne Bailey / 02 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Irish trained horses have won six of the past ten Grand National renewals so Wayne Bailey takes a look at the 2009 challenge from the Emerald Isle...

Once again we've seen the UK senior handicapper Phil Smith aggrieve the Irish trainers by tinkering with the weights, and adjusting the official ratings to include variables not usually considered in normal handicaps. But Irish trained horses have been performing extremely well in the past decade in proportion to their number of runners - so it could be argued that he's just doing the job a handicapper should do, and trying his best to make it a level playing field. Try telling that to Willie Mullins however, and Snowy Morning's 11st 8lbs for example, does seem a little harsh all considered.

Arguments aside, the Irish have a relatively strong team heading to Liverpool once again, so here's my top five possible raiders in the Aintree festival showpiece:

Black Apalachi
Dessie Hughes' ten-year-old is an out-and-out stayer and showed that he means serious business when beating Snowy Morning in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. He likes to hit the front early, so it's imperative that Dennis O'Regan gets into position as soon as possible and tries to make some of the running. He's currently priced around [22.0] but I think that's a bit short considering his weight burden of 11st 5lbs - and if I was a backer, I'd look for [30.0] or thereabouts.

L'Ami
Over the past few days, Tony McCoy was said to be agonising over his decision whether to ride L'Ami or Butlers Cabin. He was unsuccessful on both horses in this race before - and this morning, it's been announced that he'll ride the latter. The fact that he found the decision very difficult gives a thumbs-up to L'Ami in some respects. Robert Thornton will now take the reins and his price of [27.0] seems about right. Enda Bolger's horses normally love a bit of rough and tumble, but his fall last year gave Mick Fitzgerald some horrific injuries. If the gelding can stay up this year, he's in with a good chance.

Hear The Echo
His price dropped as low as [18.0] when stablemate War Of Attrition was withdrawn, but he's back out to [26.0] which is a bit more realistic. He put in a great display to win the Irish Grand National and the eight-year-old looks an exciting prospect. However, there are some negatives; and he's since been prone to jumping mistakes as was quite evident last-time-out at Gowran on St Valentine's Day. Again, his chances are largely dependent on him jumping well and staying up.

Irish Invader
The eight-year-old is trading around [30.0] but that's a cracking price for Willie Mullins' gelding. The up-and-coming Irish jockey Paul Townend gets the ride and it would be fantastic for the Corkman if he could find his way into the placings. Irish Invader won the paddypowerpoker.com Handicap Chase at the Leopardstown Christmas festival and hasn't done much wrong at all this season. He's definitely one for the place market, with a smaller bet for the win too.

Southern Vic
Father Ted trains this horse (Ruby's father that is!), and with the ground expected to be good, it's not much surprise that Ruby picked Paul Nicholls' My Will instead. Southern Vic likes a bit of cut in the ground, so Saturday's conditions won't be ideal. However, he does have some staying qualities and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if he manages to place.