Betfair Official Blog

The luck of the draw? Something to consider when betting on the flat

The start of a new Flat season "proper" raises some perennial questions about form study. Simon Rowlands ventures a few responses

As I'm sure you are all aware, betting on flat racing raises many different challenges to it's National Hunt counter-discipline. Those who bet on the jumps do not have to bother about such niceties as the effect of the draw, for instance, and it is seldom even a major concern for followers of the all-weather.

It is possible to establish the general effect of the draw at a course only over a decent period of time. Small samples will give rise to variance and may lead to erroneous conclusions. As in other areas of form analysis, notably so-called "trends" analysis, it should be recognised that if there is a bias it will affect not only winners but losers and the degree to which the winners win and the losers lose as well.

Then you also have to contend with the fact that the effect of the draw may well be dynamic. It may change over time, due to things like watering, and it may be different depending on the prevailing going.

And, when all is said and done, the effect of the draw is usually only small and secondary to other factors, not least pace. The physical advantage in the draw may be only a length or two, whereas it can be shown that the influence of pace and field position is often much more than that.

Having an idea of the overall effect of the draw at different courses and distances is important, but it also pays to look at individual results in isolation. In particular, in large-field handicaps run on straight courses the result will reflect many relevant factors, of which the draw is one component.

Take the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster last Saturday. There was much umming and aahing about the effect of the draw before the race, but did it amount to much in reality? We had a 21-runner field, comprising a group of 10 who raced on the far side and 11 who raced on the near side.

The way I approach the problem is to consider the groups separately and to calculate the average lengths beaten for runners in each of them. This effectively takes into account not just the draw but any general advantages in pace etc. It is also worth having a "stop-loss" in order to avoid tailed-off runners skewing the data.

In the case of the Lincoln Handicap, the winner Smokey Oakey came from the stand-side group but the far side group collectively finished 1.6 lengths further ahead if operating a stop-loss of 20 lengths. The far-side group also filled seven of the first 11 places.

The testing conditions, which led to the runners finishing much more strung out than usual in this race as well as in the consolation Spring Mile run earlier on the card, makes this less than cut and dried, but there have been (and will continue to be) clearer examples in which dubious conclusions have been widely made without proper consideration of the facts.

For instance, last year's 2000 Guineas saw a 24-runner field split into two groups, with Cockney Rebel coming to the near side and winning. Plenty of people suggested that the third horse, Dutch Art, who was comfortably ahead on the far side, might have been unlucky.

Analysis of the result showed that the far side was 1.8 lengths down on average. If you adjusted accordingly, Dutch Art would have finished second, beaten about half a length. Subsequent events suggested that might well have been about right.

There'll be plenty of similar examples in the months ahead, so, before jumping to conclusions about what has happened, consider pausing and picking up a calculator. On such seemingly small differences many a future bet is won or lost.

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Racing returns to Doncaster sooner than might be expected this Saturday, with what promises to be another competitive Flat card.

I am looking forward to seeing Cha Cha Cha again in the 7f handicap at 3:05, as she looked perfectly capable of following up her easy win at Musselburgh on Sunday. Ingleby Arch is another to consider in the 6f handicap there at 4:10 after he ran some remarkably good sectionals in winning at Southwell last month. He is still on a lower mark than when starting favourite for a prestigious handicap on turf at York as a three-year-old.

Hopefully the draw won't scupper either of their chances!