Betting Strategy / Paul Smith / 24 February 2010 / 1 Comments

Paul Smith issues his latest bulletin from the all-weather arena

"Mackintosh has the ability to travel strongly through his races but when asked for his effort, he finds little. He looked particularly recalcitrant last week and leaving a short-priced lay in running looks a low-risk strategy whenever he runs."

Without calling for the assistance of 'spin' supremo Alastair Campbell, it is hard to take too positive a view of last week's efforts. It didn't start off well when I Confess ran another ultra-game race only to find Charlie Smirke too strong on Wednesday, and from that moment on it was downhill all the way.

Boho Chic's victory on Thursday, having been struck off the list only the week previously, was another nadir, and the runs of Orangeleg and Thunderball this week were hardly awe-inspiring. Bloodied but unbowed, the quest for winners goes on.

Trying to dig out encouraging performances from the last seven days hasn't been too easy, with small fields and uncompetitive events the order of the day.

That said, David Evans has done well with the horses he has inherited this winter and he shouldn't be too long in finding an opening for Top Flight Splash, a recent acquisition from the Geraldine Rees stable.

A close third to a well-handicapped winner and a talented rogue on her first start for the stable, she helped force a strong pace for the grade on that occasion. Giving best close home wasn't a bad effort at all - Timeform have rated it the second best run of her career - and she will find better opportunities in the coming weeks.

Effective at 6f and 7f, as well as on both all-weather surfaces, she shouldn't be too hard to place and compensation awaits.

Meydan may not strictly have been in the Sand Stormers remit when the all-weather campaign began, but in a quiet week, I think Lui Rei deserves a mention.

A Group 2 winner in France in his juvenile season, he was having his first run for Carnival regular Herman Brown when chasing home Frosty Secret in a 6f handicap on Thursday.
Although he was ultimately well held in second, it doesn't tell the whole story as he was very slowly into stride and was checked in his run when trying to launch his challenge. That was his first run since October and should have blown any cobwebs away - he looks one to note if lining up again at the Carnival, particularly with a step back up to 7f unlikely to cause him any problems.

The opportunity to lay reluctant performers in-running is one of the benefits of exchange betting and Mackintosh once again showed that he was one to tread very carefully with when throwing away a gilt-edged opportunity at Southwell last week.

A look at the excellent www.timeform.com/free site reveals that he has traded at [2.5] or shorter on five of his last six starts ([1.25] or shorter on three of those occasions), and this doesn't look a coincidence.

He has the ability to travel strongly through his races but when asked for his effort, he finds little. He looked particularly recalcitrant last week and leaving a short-priced lay in running looks a low-risk strategy whenever he runs.

The first opportunity to put this into practice comes at Southwell on Thursday, where he is due to contest the 16:50. Trying to gauge what sort of price to submit the lay at is never easy but anything sub [3.0] seems sensible enough given his profile thus far.

There does look to be an even better opportunity on Southwell's card though, with Hint Of Honey making her eagerly awaited return to the track in the 17:20. Ok, so 'eagerly awaited' is milking it a little bit, but a closer inspection of her win here in December does make her of real interest.

The subsequent wins of the second (twice), fourth (twice), sixth, seventh, ninth (twice) and 12th give the win plenty of substance and she remains totally unexposed over this 1m trip.
The presence of the hat-trick seeking Isitcozimcool should ensure that her price holds up and David Kenny's 7lb claim helps offset her rise in the weights.

Nothing is ever quite what you would wish for though and her draw in stall 1 is enough of a negative to limit stakes this time.

By Command seemed to have plenty in hand when landing a Wolverhampton handicap last time and he will be of real interest if declared there on Monday. The fact it is an apprentice race is encouraging as if he were to follow up, he would then have the best part of a fortnight to race without a penalty.

Sand Stormers NAP
HINT OF HONEY 17:20 Southwell (Thursday)

Full list of horses to follow
Blues Music (eyecatching late headway on debut)
By Command (looks a likely money-spinner for Kevin Ryan)
Fen Spirit (weighted to win a handicap and worth a try at 5f)
Hint Of Honey (form worked out very well)
Hot Form (green on debut and raced hard against the rail)
I Confess (big effort at Lingfield behind Aflaam)
Im Ova Ere Dad (shaped really well on return from long break)
Jonny Mudball (will be very interesting if dropped to sprint trips)
Kuanyao (good effort from stall 1 last time, more to come on Polytrack)
Lui Rei (slowly away and hampered on Carnival debut, can do better)
Maid In Heaven (best of those held up on debut, clueless early)
Orangeleg (looks particularly well handicapped)
Prince Of Sorrento (still well treated and latest farce best ignored)
Residency (poor draw and went off too hard at Wolverhampton)
Restless Genius (overcame poor draw and pace bias at Southwell)
R Woody (5f, Southwell)
Short Supply (low-grade 10f+ handicaps will suit)
Smalljohn (thriving at present and did well when hassled for the lead last time)
Thunderball (had a bit too much use made of him behind King Olav)
Tiddliwinks (potentially Listed class over 6f)
Top Flight Splash (very encouraging start to life with David Evans)

Ones to Avoid

Kielty's Folly (regularly finds nothing for pressure)
Mackintosh (looking less and less enthusiastic in a battle)

Tags: David Evans, Hint Of Honey, Lui Rei, Mackintosh, Meydan, Southwell, Timeform, Top Flight Splash