Betting Strategy / Paul Smith / 10 March 2010 / Leave a comment

Paul Smith looks ahead to Wolverhampton's Lincoln Trials card - but without overlooking some nice bets in the next few days

"Wednesday brings a couple of runners of interest, the pick of which looks to be By Command in the 21:00 at Wolverhampton. He was slightly disappointing last time but he did come up against a totally unexposed horse who has the potential to be a good deal better than his mark."

There's not too much of interest in a quiet week but two top-class weekends of all-weather action are coming up - the Lincoln Trial this Saturday and the Winter Derby on the 20th - there is something to look forward to as the majority of the racing fraternity turn their attention to the antics at Cheltenham.

Looking back to the week that was, the two performances of interest for the future came from Tous Les Deux and Reprieved. The former is a horse who has been around the block but has been a real moneyspinner since joining Gary Moore. Admittedly he was beaten in a strong race on Monday and he was entitled to go close at the weights, but it was his second run back after a break and the way he travelled, before making his challenge on the slower part of the track, suggested he retained a large portion of his ability.

He should be at peak fitness now after a couple of runs back from that break and he can put his head in front when upped in trip.

The case for Reprieved is two-fold. Firstly, he is a horse who has almost certainly got more ability than previous trainers have been able to get out of him, often running well over trips that have stretched his stamina. Secondly, the move to the excellent John Quinn is likely to bring about some improvement. His first start for new connections was full of promise.

Dropped back from 1m6f to 6f, he was unsurprisingly outpaced in the early stages but picked up really well in the straight to take sixth. He is fully entitled to come on for that first run in a year and with a step back up in trip looking sure to suit, he can capitalise on his lowly mark.

Wednesday brings a couple of runners of interest, the pick of which looks to be By Command in the 21:00 at Wolverhampton. He was slightly disappointing last time but he did come up against a totally unexposed horse who has the potential to be a good deal better than his mark.

He travelled very strongly again despite finding one too good and there don't look to be any dark horses in opposition this time.

It would be nice to see Top Flight Splash turn up in a race that didn't also feature the trailblazing Tamino, but she is definitely up to winning off her mark and she gets another chance in the 16:00 at Lingfield.

Smalljohn runs at Wolverhampton on Thursday night and is still on a fair mark, but it would be hard to be too positive about his latest effort. Minimum stakes here, just in case he can bounce back to the form he showed on his penultimate start.

Saturday sees Wolverhampton's big meeting of the year, with the Lincoln Trial the feature race. That looks very trappy at this stage with Flipando, Tartan Gigha, Dalradian and Fanunalter all making some appeal, but there is also a strong supporting card.

The 6f handicap (16:35) sees the return to action of Tiddliwinks and he can confirm the impression he has created in his previous starts over this trip. He wasn't at his best back over 7f last time, but this should be more suitable and he remains a very smart sprinting prospect on this surface.

Sand Stormers NAP
Tiddliwinks 16:35 Wolverhampton (Saturday)

Full list of horses to follow

Blues Music (eyecatching late headway on debut)
By Command (looks a likely money-spinner for Kevin Ryan)
I Confess (big effort at Lingfield behind Aflaam)
Im Ova Ere Dad (shaped really well on return from long break)
Lui Rei (slowly away and hampered on Carnival debut, can do better)
Prince Of Sorrento (still well treated and latest farce best ignored)
Reprieved (promising start for new yard over inadequate trip)
Restless Genius (overcame poor draw and pace bias at Southwell)
Smalljohn (thriving at present and did well when hassled for the lead last time)
Tiddliwinks (potentially Listed class over 6f)
Top Flight Splash (very encouraging start to life with David Evans)
Tous Les Deux (challenged on slowest part of the track at Lingfield)

Ones to Avoid

Kielty's Folly (regularly finds nothing for pressure)
Mackintosh (looking less and less enthusiastic in a battle)
Mister Green (recent in-running history makes astonishing reading)

Tags: By Command, John Quinn, Lincoln Trial, Lingfield, Reprieved, Smalljohn, Tiddliwinks, Top Flight Splash, Tous Les Deux, Winter Derby, Wolverhampton