Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 08 September 2009 / Leave a comment

The good run came to an end in August and a loss of nearly 5pts was shown on the month. However, Wayne Bailey is hoping to get back to winning ways with his trainers to follow in September...

“Another one to note at this time of the year is John Gosden and he has shown a September profit in four of the past six years”

* August profit/loss to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: -£47.30

* Running profit/loss to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: +£361.00

This column comes later than normal as I was away in Canada and had no internet access for almost two weeks! I was staying in the middle of nowhere, and while it was refreshing not having to worry about checking emails etc, I did feel the need to text home regularly and get my fix of sports results.

Normally, the column is posted on the first day of the month but it was not possible to file from a wooden cabin in Newfoundland! Therefore, at the end of the month, I'll calculate the September profit/loss from 9th September onwards.

August Results
August was disappointing with just one winner from eleven bets and a loss of nearly five points was shown to Betfair SP. However, I feel a little unlucky as some of the horses were placed and one or two should have won. The advice was to follow Michael Stoute's horses aged four and five, and the results were as follows:

Kingdom of Fife (3rd)
Warringah (2nd)
Lang Shining (8th)
Kingsgate Native (6th)
Confront (Won)
Perfect Stride (3rd)
Warringah (5th)
Karoush (4th)
Confront (2nd)
Kensington Oval (2nd)
Bugaku (6th)

The overall bank is still well ahead so I'm hoping I can get back on track this month.
Once again, if you are unfamiliar with the theme of the series, I'll do the usual cut and paste job and explain what I'm attempting to do here:

Basically, I try to find the trainers who usually perform well at the given time of the year. A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. Similarly, if a trainer normally performs poorly at the given time of year, I'll consider laying their horses.

Again, it comes with the usual health warnings and if you decide to follow, only do so with money you can afford to lose. Breaking the year into 12 segments and looking for trends is not a style that will suit everyone, but it's proved profitable for me down the years and I've had some nice priced winners along the way.

September advice
Over the years, Marcus Tregoning has had plenty of runners in the month of September and shows a strike rate of nearly 22%. He's had 50 winners from 229 races and shows a profit of 66pts for the period. He's already had a couple of wins in 2009, so fingers crossed he can keep up the form.

Another one to note at this time of the year is John Gosden and he has shown a September profit in four of the past six years. Since 2003, he's had 84 winners from 396 races at this time of the year and had you followed each horse, you'd show a very healthy profit of 118pts. Once again, he's had a few winners in 2009 and I'm hopeful he'll bag some more before the month is out.

In Summary:

* Back Marcus Tregoning trained horses
* Back John Gosden trained horses

Tags: Betting Strategy, John Gosden, Marcus Tregoning, Trainers to follow, Wayne Bailey