Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 30 September 2009 / Leave a comment

September was a disappointing month for Wayne - but his monthly column is still keeping its head above water...

“Since 2003, Henderson has had 25 winners from 88 races during the month of October and shows a very reasonable profit of 28pts.”

* September profit/loss to £10 stake at Betfair SP: -£230.04

* Overall profit/loss to £10 stake at Betfair SP: +£130.60

Dear oh dear...

I've often stated on these pages that blindly backing any strategy is probably not the ideal way to go - and that point was hammered home in September when my 'trainers to follow' produced a loss of 23pts. Or to be exact, a loss of £230.04 to £10 stakes. As mentioned in the article, the results were recorded from 10th September onwards as I was away on holidays and posted the column later than usual.

The trainers to follow were Marcus Tregoning and John Gosden, and while the former provided a small profit, the latter had a terrible month and inflicted most of the damage. The flaws in this type of backing are exposed here, and it's probably safe to assume that the experienced bettor would have avoided Gosden when they seen how poorly some of his horses were performing.

However, I'm not one for making excuses and I hold my hands up and accept responsibility for the monthly figures. You can be sure I would bask in my own glory had one of them fired home a massive priced outsider! Hopefully it's a case of onwards and upwards from October - but the risks are there for all to see so proceed with caution if following the bets.

Once again, if you are unfamiliar with the theme of the series, I'll do the usual cut and paste job and explain what I'm attempting to do here:

Basically, I try to find the trainers who usually perform well at the given time of the year. A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. Similarly, if a trainer normally performs poorly at the given time of year, I'll consider laying their horses.

Again, it comes with the usual health warnings and if you decide to follow, only do so with money you can afford to lose. Breaking the year into 12 segments and looking for trends is not a style that will suit everyone, but it's proved profitable for me down the years and I've had some nice priced winners along the way.

October Advice:

There's no need to go into details here as I'm sure you all know already; but Nicky Henderson is coming to the end of a three-month ban and cannot enter horses in races until October 10th. He's well worth following at the start of the jumps season however, and has a particularly strong team in 2009/2010. Since 2003, Henderson has had 25 winners from 88 races during the month of October and shows a very reasonable profit of 28pts.

Another trainer I like to follow at this time of the year is Nigel Twiston-Davies. His horses are finely tuned at the start of the season and are rarely out of the frame. Indeed, since 2003, he's had 91 October winners (from 370 races) and shows a profit of over 42pts.

Summary

* Back Nicky Henderson trained horses when his ban ends.
* Back Nigel Twiston-Davies trained horses.

Tags: Betting Strategy, John Gosden, Marcus Tregoning, Nicky Henderson, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Trainers To Follow, Wayne Bailey