Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 01 March 2010 / 1 Comments

Wayne Bailey incurred a small loss in February; but his 'trainer to follow' series is still well ahead as the Festival month finally arrives...

“The Irish Champion trainer’s team may not be as strong as last year, but his yard has come right back into form lately; and you can be sure that he has one or two gems hidden away”

* February profit/loss: - £25.30

* Overall profit/loss: + £314.73

(Profit/loss is recorded to a £10 stake at Betfair SP and assumes the backer is paying 5% commission).

It was a quiet enough month for the 'trainer to follow' series in February with just six runners and one winner. The advice given last month was to follow Tom Dascombe, with Plush being his only winner for the month priced at [3.60]. Frustratingly, that same horse was beaten later on at Wolverhampton despite trading at [1.05] in-running.

A loss of £25 was a little disappointing but the overall bank is still healthy so I'm not too worried. March however, could be a busy month for the series so fingers cross I can top up the bank a little as the UK National Hunt season reaches its peak.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the theme of the series, I'll explain briefly what I'm attempting to do:

I try to find the trainers who usually perform well at the given time of the year. A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. Similarly, if a trainer normally performs poorly at the given time of year, I'll consider laying their horses.

Again, it comes with the usual health warnings and if you decide to follow, only do so with money you can afford to lose. Breaking the year into 12 segments and looking for trends is not a style that will suit everyone, but it's proved profitable for me down the years and I've had some nice priced winners along the way.

March Advice

It's a tricky month in some ways as all the focus is on the Festival and it can be hard to keep on top of the regular day-to-day racing alongside Cheltenham. However, I've picked out two trainers who could be worth following, both inside the festival and out:

W.P. Mullins
The Irish Champion trainer's team may not be as strong as last year, but his yard has come right back into form lately; and you can be sure that he has one or two gems hidden away. Since 2003, he's had 66 March winners from 336 races and while he shows a small loss of 10pts, I believe that's partly due to the fact that many of his horses were over-backed last year due to a lot of hype (15pts loss in 2009). He's already coming into form with 19 winners from 54 races last month and while Nicholls holds most of the aces, punters may be underestimating Mullins a little in 2010.

Jnr, D McCain
Donand McCain can usually be relied upon at this time of the year and since 2003, he's had 30 March winners from 175 races showing a profit of over 39pts to level stakes. Like Willie Mullins, McCain showed a March loss in 2009 but his horses are coming into form again and I'm reliably informed that he has one or two unexposed sorts in the yard that could go off at nice prices.

Tags: Cheltenham Festival, Donald McCain, Trainers To Follow, Wayne Bailey, Willie Mullins