Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 01 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Wayne Bailey's October trainers to follow showed a profit of £112.90. Read November's advice here.

“Since 2003, Dartnall has had 22 winners from 92 races during the month of November and had you put £10 on each, you would show a profit of £540.”

* October profit/loss to £10 stake at Betfair SP: +£112.90

* Overall profit/loss to £10 stake at Betfair SP: +£243.50

At last, some decent profit! This column has been up and down over the year but I must admit that I was getting quite concerned after a poor spell recently. Thankfully, I can report a profit for the month of October so let's hope I can keep the momentum going as the year gets closer to ending.

Last month's advice was to back the horses trained by Nicky Henderson and Nigel Twiston-Davies and the total profit to Betfair SP was +11.29 points. To be honest, neither trainer set the world alight but a few juicy prices helped keep us afloat.

Twiston-Davies had 12 winners from 83 races (14%) showing a profit of 15.79 points; while Henderson had four winners from 17 races (23%) but a loss of 4.5 points was incurred. So to £10 stakes at Betfair SP, the total return was +£112.90.

Once again, if you are unfamiliar with the theme of the series, I'll do the usual cut and paste job and explain what I'm attempting to do here:
Basically, I try to find the trainers who usually perform well at the given time of the year. A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. Similarly, if a trainer normally performs poorly at the given time of year, I'll consider laying their horses.

Again, it comes with the usual health warnings and if you decide to follow, only do so with money you can afford to lose. Breaking the year into 12 segments and looking for trends is not a style that will suit everyone, but it's proved profitable for me down the years and I've had some nice priced winners along the way.

November advice

I was going to suggest continuing following Henderson as he usually performs well in the month of November. However, I'm not entirely happy with the form of some of his horses so I think I'll swerve his the yard for now. I've had a look though the records and the only trainer I'm happy to follow this month is Victor Dartnall as his animals usually rearing to go at the start of the National Hunt season. Since 2003, Dartnall has had 22 winners from 92 races during the month of November and had you put £10 on each, you would show a profit of £540. I'm not expecting a huge amount of bets to be honest - but he's a patient trainer that knows where to place his horses and they are usually thereabouts at this time of the year so fingers crossed. As usual, I'll report back at the end of the month with the profit/loss figures.

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Tags: Nicky Henderson, Trainers to follow, Victor Dartnall, Wayne Bailey