Betting Strategy / Paul Smith / 03 March 2010 / Leave a comment

A horse who fails to convert short odds in-running and another who achieves success by keeping it simple are among the runners to catch Paul Smith's eye in a busy week of racing. The next seven days promise to be equally eventful and our man reckons he's found some intriguing bets.

"Blues Music has races in him for sure, but there are some top stables likely to be represented at Lingfield on Monday and much will depend on the final make up of the race."

Seconditis. A particularly uncomfortable ailment for punters and one that has been especially virulent for the column in recent times. Unfortunately, there isn't an instant cure available from Boots, so hopefully a change in fortune will be forthcoming this week.

The weekend saw one of the better day's action on the All Weather this winter, with Lingfield holding their Winter Derby Trial as well as a Listed sprint and a couple of competitive handicaps. All eyes were on Gitano Hernando as he put his Dubai World Cup claims on the line in the Winter Derby Trial and although he stayed on really strongly to justify heavy support, it was a performance that didn't suggest to me that he was out of the very top drawer.

There was speculation that he was only 90% fit going into the race - quite how that is quantified I have no idea - and he may improve for the run, but the opposition was nothing like what he will face in Meydan.

The most interesting performance for the future came from Mister Green. Although he eventually finished third, he travelled through the race like the best horse, something which has been apparent in many of his recent runs in lesser company. His in-running prices in his seven runs this winter have been worthy of comment - defeats at [1.08], [2.0], [1.01], [1.13] and [1.21] feature alongside a win in January - and he traded at [4.3] on Saturday despite a Betfair SP of [29.0].

Those figures don't make pretty reading, but his ability to travel all over inferior rivals and not find as much as looks likely should ensure he is one to consistently be against at short prices in running.

Jaconet started her winning in a lowly Ripon seller but that seems a distant memory now and she maintained her flawless record at Lingfield with an imperious display in the sprint. Her three runs at the track have seen her win by an aggregate of 10.75 lengths and her simple style of racing - blast out and make all - makes that all the more impressive.

She doesn't seem quite so good on turf, so with opportunities on the All Weather limited, it will be interesting to see if the shrewd David Barron has any plans to send her to America for a spin.

There's plenty to get stuck into this week, starting with a couple of the list taking their chance on Wednesday.

Smalljohn showed a cracking attitude to score over this course and distance last time, hassled for the lead early but still able to pull away from the hold-up horses in the straight.

He's 6lb higher in a better race at Wolverhampton (17:30) but he did really well to win last time and can complete a hat-trick. Johnmanderville is a potential fly in the ointment from a pace perspective, but Tom Eaves should be alive to that and he looks to hold excellent claims.

Thunderball was disappointing last time, but he was never able to get any cover and was always trapped out wide. He is worth another chance to confirm the promise of his penultimate start in the 19:45 at Kempton.

Although he was a beaten favourite on Monday, By Command wasn't disgraced behind a totally unexposed rival and if he lines up at Wolverhampton on Friday, he can make up for that defeat. He travelled very strongly through the race once again and is better than a mark of 65 suggests.

Lui Rei did well to chase home Frosty Secret at Meydan last time given he blew the start and he looks the most interesting contender in the 15:05 on Friday. A smart juvenile, that was his first run for Herman Brown and he is entitled to be a bit sharper for his first outing since October.

Finally, Blues Music holds an engagement in a Lingfield maiden on Monday. He has races in him for sure, but there are some top stables likely to be represented here and much will depend on the final make up of the race.

Sand Stormers NAP

Salljohn 17:30 Wolverhampton (Wednesday)

Horses to follow

Blues Music (eyecatching late headway on debut)
By Command (looks a likely money-spinner for Kevin Ryan)
Hint Of Honey (form worked out very well)
Hot Form (green on debut and raced hard against the rail)
I Confess (big effort at Lingfield behind Aflaam)
Im Ova Ere Dad (shaped really well on return from long break)
Jonny Mudball (will be very interesting if dropped to sprint trips)
Kuanyao (good effort from stall 1 last time, more to come on Polytrack)
Lui Rei (slowly away and hampered on Carnival debut, can do better)
Maid In Heaven (best of those held up on debut, clueless early)
Orangeleg (looks particularly well handicapped)
Prince Of Sorrento (still well treated and latest farce best ignored)
Residency (poor draw and went off too hard at Wolverhampton)
Restless Genius (overcame poor draw and pace bias at Southwell)
R Woody (5f, Southwell)
Short Supply (low-grade 10f+ handicaps will suit)
Smalljohn (thriving at present and did well when hassled for the lead last time)
Thunderball (had a bit too much use made of him behind King Olav)
Tiddliwinks (potentially Listed class over 6f)
Top Flight Splash (very encouraging start to life with David Evans)

Horses to avoid

Kielty's Folly (regularly finds nothing for pressure)
Mackintosh (looking less and less enthusiastic in a battle)
Mister Green (recent in-running history makes astonishing reading)

Tags: Betting Strategy, Horseracing betting, Lingfield Races, Paul Music, Sand Stormers