Betting Strategy / Simon Rowlands / 31 December 2008 / Leave a comment

There just aren't enough hours in the day for Simon Rowlands at the moment. But he still finds time to salute Paul Nicholls for Kauto Star's achievements on Boxing Day and over a number of years.

I don't know about you, but I will be asking Santa to bring me more than 24 hours in a day at Christmas next year. There's the day job (writing an Irish supplement to the forthcoming Timeform Racehorses annual and covering some of the Irish jumps horse racing), last-minute shopping and various social functions involving friends and family (a new liver would go down well also). Last, and by no means least, there is the fact that much of the most significant and interesting jumps racing of the entire year comes thick and fast at this time.

Following it all has involved popping into various betting shops (they still exist), phoning up for commentaries on Timeform Radio while in the pub/shops and trying to watch recordings on Sky+ in the middle of the night. I still suspect I have missed something highly significant along the way.

If it were not for Notre Pere in the Welsh National (missed the big prices but got some 13 in running at halfway) it would have been a poor time punting-wise, but "you don't need much on at that sort of price", as they say, and it made up for plenty of disappointments elsewhere.

In particular, my Champion Hurdle ante-post portfolio looks pathetic all of a sudden. Sizing Europe stopped very quickly even allowing for having pulled hard in the Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown, and his cakewalk in the Irish Champion Hurdle on the same course suddenly seems much more than 11 months ago. Before that, both Katchit and Solwhit disappointed, though the latter may well fall a bit short of Champion Hurdle class anyway.

Binocular looked the real deal when winning the rearranged International Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas, of that there is no doubt, but I am not going to attempt to dig myself out of trouble by supporting him for the big one at [2.44] with 10 weeks still to go. That really does seem too short for a horse whose stamina may be slightly suspect. I would rather lay him at this stage.

Punchestowns looked very good in winning the Long Walk Hurdle later on the Ascot card by 11 lengths, though the opposition rather fell away for him and he jumped less than fluently. I still favour the French-trained Kasbah Bliss ([4.4] to back, as opposed to Punchestowns' [3.0]) for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, a race in which he found only Inglis Drever too good last term. Kasbah Bliss' Group 3 win on the Flat in September suggests he could well be better than ever.

Boxing Day was all about the King George VI Chase and about the brilliant Kauto Star, who gained a third successive victory in the mid-season championship. It was impossible to be anything other than hugely impressed with what the horse achieved on the day and with what he has now achieved, on and off, over a considerable period of time. Great credit must, of course, go to his trainer Paul Nicholls and to the rest of the staff at Ditcheat.

That said, I did find myself annoyed by some of the remarks made after the race that seemed to imply that support or opposition of a horse should be more about faith than about reason. "Kauto doubters proved wrong" was one headline, as if the very act of analysing how Kauto Star had run in his recent races and being anything other than bowled over by what you found was heresy. That's plain daft and is the kind of partisan nonsense that is usually reserved for the football terraces.

I was a "doubter" in some respects, but then I also acknowledged that Kauto Star should win easily at his best. As always where betting on horseracing is concerned, it is a matter of weighing up the pros and cons and deciding whether the odds available make it worth backing or laying the horse in question. In the end, I did not feel strongly enough either way and therefore did nothing.

A missed opportunity, obviously. But I do know that blind allegiance has no place in a successful long-term betting strategy (for all that it may appeal in some other respects) and that one result in isolation does not always prove or disprove anything like so much as some seem to imagine.

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There is a distinct "after the Lord Mayor's Show" feel to events this coming weekend, with just two Graded races - the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday and the Slaney Novice Hurdle at Naas on Sunday - scheduled.

Mahonia seemed not to have enough use made of him when beaten at Cheltenham recently, but there should be no repeat in the Tolworth. Before that defeat he had beaten Medermit easily (admittedly, in receipt of weight), and the latter accounted for Dee Ee Williams and Wendel, both possible rivals to Mahonia, at Ascot the other day.

Mikael d'Haguenet should be all the rage in the Slaney, and the race may at least help to show whether he caught Pandorama on an off day last time, or is the second coming himself (or both, or neither). Perhaps the smart play here will be to place lay Fisher Bridge, who is useful but a sloppy jumper who does not seem likely to be suited by this longer trip.