Stats / Bettorlogic / 28 November 2008 / Leave a comment

BettorLogic have all the stats you need ahead of Premier League leading Chelsea's home clash with Arsenal on Sunday.

Match Odds
The Blues' last Big Four match brought an end to their 86-game unbeaten run in the league at home and they will be looking to bounce back from that -- and an underwhelming performance in Bordeaux in mid-week -- against an Arsenal side with troubles of their own. The Gunners' losses to Villa and Man City were the first time Arsene Wenger has suffered consecutive league defeats by two goals or more in his time in North London. Arsenal have had only two losing streaks of three games or more in the league in his time, going W9-D1-L2 off the back of consecutive defeats (W6-D1-L0 on the road, with no goals conceded) but one of the losses did come against Chelsea.

More worrying for Arsenal is their away form against the Big Four which has seen them lose five of their last six in all competitions, going W3-D3-L11 since their unbeaten season (W1-D3-L8 in the league). Their win over Kiev should offer some hope though, having picked up all but one of their points in that sample (W3-D2-L2, W1-D2-L1 in the league) after a victory.
As well as ending their own unbeaten run, Chelsea's loss to Liverpool was only the second time in the last 27 Big Four meetings an away side had won (HW14-D11-AW2). Chelsea's home record in these games is by no means stellar though, winning only half of their games since Mourinho's arrival (W10-D9-L1), including just two of their last seven (W2-D4-L1) in the league. Indeed, over the last two years Chelsea's home win rate of 55% (W21-D16-L1) is closer to the non-Big Four average (40%) than the rest of the Big Four's (75%).
Those figures suggest the home win ([1.86]) is, at best, priced in and that the value is probably in backing the stalemate at [3.65].

Correct score
The 0-0 (6/20 in all competitions and 3/14 in the league) and 1-0 win (5/20 and 4/14) have been most common in Big Four clashes at Stamford Bridge since 04/05. The Blues have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five though, with two 1-1s and 2-1s in that sample. Four of Arsenal's last five away at the Big Four in the league have also ended 1-1 or 1-2 (two each).
Remarkably, those two score lines have accounted for 10 of the last 12 (five apiece) non-neutral Big Four clashes overall -- as well as another 1-1 in Moscow. Backing the 1-1 ([7.8]) is an alternative to the draw outright, with 2-1 ([9.4]) worth covering as well.

HT/FT
Arsenal haven't scored in the first half at a Big Four side in the league since their last win here in 03/04, with nine of their 12 subsequent games goalless at the break -- half of which have ended in a D/L. Chelsea have had four D/Ws since 04/05 at home to the Big Four in all competitions, although the W/W (6/20) and D/D (7/20) have been most common.

Chelsea clean sheet
Chelsea conceded one goal in their 15 home games against the Big Four from 04/05 but, as mentioned earlier, have conceded in each of their last five. Arsenal have the best scoring record in Big Four games, failing to net in only one of their last 19 (at United in the FA Cup last season), scoring in nine of their last 10 on the road. 'No' looks value at [1.65]

Arsenal clean sheet
While Arsenal have the best scoring record in these games they also have the worst defensive one, shipping 20 goals in their last seven on the road at the Big Four and managing one clean sheet in their last 17 (home and away). Chelsea have failed to score four times in their last 15 at home but 'No' still has to be the call, although it offers little value ([1.22]).