The Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goals Column: Trust Hull to steer you towards "unders"

Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 13 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Andrew Turner was arguably Hull's best defender last season and we'll need him to be at his best if we're going to cash in on "unders" on Saturday.

"I can see Chelsea winning this 1-0 or 2-0, but most of the money will probably be on the over 2.5 goal option. As such, the value will almost certainly be on the unders at 2.50, especially if we also play the 3-0 as a saver."

Ed's column proved popular with betting.betfair.com readers last season, and by the end of the season it was also very profitable. He finished the season with an impressive 37.93pts profit from 184.95 pts staked incorporating 156 bets over the year. Here are his choices in week one.

Spurs v Liverpool

Liverpool's season starts with a difficult away game at White Hart Lane. Spurs have won eight of the last 21 Premier League encounters between the two clubs in North London, while the Reds have also managed eight victories.

Four of the last five contests between these teams have resulted in there being fewer than three goals in the match, while that odd one out was last season when a Spurs 2-1 victory was only secured in the 90th minute. Indeed, given that the first goal in that game was scored in the 3rd minute by the away team, 2-1 actually reads well for those looking to go for the under 2.5 goal option on Sunday.

Last year's game on November 1st was only Harry Redknapp's second game in charge of Spurs, and Tottenham immediately started playing better with him in charge. A 2-0 home win over Bolton, then the 2-1 victory over Liverpool was followed by a 4-4 at the Emirates and a 4-2 win over Liverpool in the Carling Cup.

Last season Spurs tightened up at the back when playing at home - only 6 home games produced over 2.5 goal encounters, while Spurs only conceded 10 goals all year at White Hart Lane - the best record in the league; indeed, only 1.63 goals were scored per league game at the ground. There were not many chances in this game last year, with Spurs having four shots on target (SOTs) and Liverpool just six - and both teams started with just one up front. Interestingly it was Robbie Keane for Liverpool and Darren Bent for Spurs.

Conclusion

Although both teams have plenty of goalscorers to choose from, there is every chance that both might start with just one up front; Spurs may well go for a 4-4-2, but I can see Liverpool going with just Torres up front. Liverpool have plenty of defenders injured and that may mean Rafa concentrates on packing his midfield and keeping it tight. Last year we selected the unders at 1.92, this year we can back the unders at 1.91 and I think that is the call.

Spurs v Liverpool Under 2.5 goals 1 pt @ [1.91]

Chelsea v Hull

Plenty will be expecting goals in this match. Last season Hull went to White Hart Lane, Old Trafford and Anfield and took those footballing clubs on, scoring twice on each occasion at those grounds. But, they may find it more difficult in their second season as teams become more used to the way they play - and, in addition, I doubt whether Phil Brown's team will be quite so offensive on the road this year as they were last season.

Chelsea meanwhile continue to do just enough at home and away from home. They remain very difficult to score against at Stamford Bridge - they only conceded 12 goals all season there last term (2nd best in league) - yet 63.2% of their home games were under 2.5 goal affairs, including this fixture which ended 0-0 and finished with Blues fans booing their side off. Hull hadn't won a game in nine when taking to Stamford Bridge on that occasion, and kept Chelsea down to just six SOTs while they had just four themselves. The worry is that the Chelsea players will have that memory in the back of their mind and will want to put it right. However, Hull should be intent on making it difficult for the home team and a low scoring result is envisaged.

Conclusion

I can see Chelsea winning this 1-0 or 2-0, but most of the money will probably be on the over 2.5 goal option. As such, the value will almost certainly be on the unders at 2.50, especially if we also play the 3-0 as a saver.

Chelsea v Hull Under 2.5 goals 2pts @ 2.50
3-0 Chelsea win 0.5pt @ 8.0