Premier League Betting: The real table and the mini table

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 01 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Arsene Wenger knows his loss to Man Utd may prove very costly

"But every now and then Wenger does come out with something that makes complete sense. For instance when he reckons that the Premier League title is normally won by the team which gets the best results among the Big Four, then he’s absolutely right."

Ralph Ellis agrees with Arsene Wenger's assertion that the side who comes out top from amongst the Big Four's clashes agianst one another is normally the team who wins the league. But is this also true when it comes to relegation?

Martin O'Neill would tell you that Arsene Wenger talks a lot of nonsense, and when it comes to reasons for getting beaten, bad referees, opponents who kick his team, and so-called long-ball sides, he would be absolutely right.

But every now and then Wenger does come out with something that makes complete sense. For instance when he reckons that the Premier League title is normally won by the team which gets the best results among the Big Four, then he's absolutely right.

That must be a worry for the Gunners this morning after being wiped away by Manchester United yesterday. It was the first game broadcast in 3D, but for an afternoon Wenger's team were utterly one dimensional and it was United who had the full range of options.

What's worse, it's their second 3-0 defeat in the "Big Four League" this season, and leaves them rock bottom of it. They have only one win at Anfield from the mini competition so far, and a goal difference of minus six. A week after hitting the top of the proper table, which saw their title odds come in to just [5.0], they are back to [13.5] and sliding.

So the Barclays Premier League looks once more like a two-horse contest between United and Chelsea. For Sir Alex Ferguson there was promise that inconsistent Portuguese youngster Nani might finally be ready to step up to the task of replacing Cristiano Ronaldo. And he also got the reassuring reminder of Wayne Rooney's thirst to play every game and to be a leader. Rooney is now as short as [1.42] to be the Premier League's top scorer, and the same price to be PFA player of the year.

I've had my results books and calculator out, and applying the mini-league principle shows Chelsea are value to recapture the proper title even at [1.7]. They are not only top of the real table, but lead the way among the other Big Four clubs with a 100 per cent record and not a goal conceded. The pressure is on John Terry to make sure it stays that way on Sunday against Arsenal, and if his performance at Burnley is anything to go by then [1.85] a home win is great value.

Here's the current "Big Four" table

P W D L F A Pts
Chelsea 3 3 0 0 6 0 9
Man Utd 4 2 0 2 5 4 6
Liverpool 3 1 0 2 3 4 3
Arsenal 4 1 0 3 3 9 3

So Liverpool are on the brink of being relegated from it. In fact you could argue they are already in another four-club contest with Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa for the final Champions League qualifying place.

In that contest it is Tottenham, who drew 1-1 at Birmingham at the weekend, who are currently top with seven points, leading on goal difference from Liverpool who have played a game more. Yet Spurs at [5.6] are currently the longest price in the market for a top four finish, while the Anfield side are second favourites at [3.4].

O'Neill watched his Villa side get a 2-0 win at Fulham with Gabby Agbonlahor back among the goals, but then insisted odds of [5.2] would be justified because his squad wasn't deep enough to go the distance for a Champions League place despite only one defeat against the other contenders.

So here's the current "mini league" for fourth

P W D L F A Pts
Tottenham 4 2 1 1 6 4 7
Liverpool 5 2 1 2 7 7 7
Aston Villa 4 1 2 1 5 4 5
Man City 3 0 2 1 3 6 2

If Wenger's theory is right, it means Manchester City at [2.0] to finish in fourth place is a definite lay, even given that their three remaining fixtures are all at home. And for all the promise of Roberto Mancini's first days they were anything but convincing against bottom club Portsmouth in a 2-0 win at Eastlands.

All of which makes the most significant result at the bottom end of the table this weekend being Wolves' 2-2 draw at Hull. Mick McCarthy has shamelessly applied the mini-league principle and picked his sides to be strongest in the games against other relegation candidates. Amazingly rock bottom Pompey, now [1.24] to go down, are top of the competition between the seven clubs fighting to stay up:

P W D L F A Pts
Portsmouth 7 3 2 2 10 6 11
West Ham 7 3 2 2 14 11 11
Hull 7 2 4 1 9 9 10
Wolves 8 3 2 3 8 9 10
Bolton 6 2 1 3 9 7 7
Wigan 6 2 0 4 5 10 6
Burnley 7 1 1 5 7 14 4

So has Arsene, sometimes known as "The Professor", discovered a great academic way to find value among the odds? Are Wigan, beaten 1-0 at home by Everton, great value at [6.6] to go down. Or should Burnley be backed at [1.9]? Do Bolton, adjusting to life under new boss Brian Laws, look an opportunity at [5.6]. Or is this actually another of Wenger's theories that don't stand up to a multi-dimensional test? I'll leave it to you to decide!