Football Betting: What can we expect in 2009/10?

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 25 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

As the curtain falls on the 2008/09 Premier League, Ralph Ellis explains how his bets came in and asks what the end of this season can tell us about the start of the next...

So that's it, the Premier League season is over. And there are 82 long days stretching out before it all kicks off again - enough time for Phileas Fogg to fly his balloon round the world and still have 48 hours to unpack.

So what can we expect? Just as there were clues in the first two weeks about how this season would unfold, so the final day offered some ideas on next year. On day one this column said Tottenham shouldn't be favourites to be the winner without the big four, and went further by laying them at [1.98] for a top six finish. We said back Manchester United at [3.45] for the title when Chelsea were the opening favourites. And a week later came the other big success story of the season laying Stoke for relegation and backing West Brom to be rock bottom. It's been a long wait for the profits, but they are all safely in the 'available to bet' balance now - together with the money from tipping Nicolas Anelka to be Premier League top scorer.

What did the last day tell us? Apart from that Newcastle and Middlesbrough would join West Brom in the Championship, of course. Probably that it's time to look for the clubs that are stable now rather than the ones who will have a summer of change.

United, of course, are the most stable of the lot. They head to Rome this week with a chance to win a second successive double of Premier and Champions League, and yesterday at Hull showed why they could well make it three in a row next season. After all the fuss about what team Sir Alex Ferguson would pick, he chose a reserve side that barely got out of second gear collecting a 1-0 win. United have strength in depth, a new wave of kids coming through, and most importantly still have the manager with the most hunger and desire to win games whatever the circumstances. It's now [1.3] that he'll keep Ronaldo at the club for another season too.

In contrast, Chelsea are about to go through yet another summer of revolution. The 3-2 win at Sunderland means nothing because Carlo Ancelotti is [1.21] to take over as their fifth manager in 20 months and will immediately start moving players in and out of Stamford Bridge when he gets there. He has an ageing squad to redevelop and it won't be easy - especially for a man still taking intensive lessons to learn English and with no experience of the Premier League.

Arsenal are moving in the right direction, though. Arsene Wenger is staying despite the grumbling Gooners who can't see what he's doing, and their 4-1 last day demolition of Stoke showed how strong they can be. Add a commanding centre half and they could be a threat again next year. Meanwhile, Liverpool will have the benefit of Fernando Torres having had a proper summer break and a pre-season to be genuinely fit and firing. His superb header in the 3-1 win over Tottenham made it 18 goals from 38 games of a stop-start season.

Everton are the league's other great model of stability, and confirmed fifth place with a solid 2-0 win at Fulham. They are a tasty [3.2] to win the FA Cup next week, and while that's a gamble I'd definitely go for laying Chelsea at [1.78] to win in normal time. That's great value when you remember that both league games between the clubs this season finished 0-0.

West Ham spent the early part of the campaign looking like a club that was about to go into meltdown with the financial problems caused by the Carlos Tevez affair and then Icelandic banks collapsing. But their 2-1 win that consigned Middlesbrough to the Championship underlined they have reasons to be hopeful. Junior Stanislas is the latest bright local youngster to come off the production line, but they are committed to keeping a core of experienced players around them. They may yet be a threat.

If there's one of the better clubs I worry about it's Aston Villa. They may have produced the 1-0 home win that sent Newcastle down, but the key player was Gareth Barry and it's almost certain he'll be gone by August. With Martin Laursen retiring it's taking Martin O'Neill's two best players from a squad that was already too thin to last the distance.

The biggest unknown of the lot will be Manchester City. They've bragged of bringing in the world's biggest stars but won't even be able to offer them Europa Cup football, never mind the Champions League. And a lazy 1-0 win over Bolton underlined that too much money and not enough glory brings you players who don't always have the soul for a long, hard season.