Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer Betting: Cristiano Ronaldo has the right profile

Introduction

In order to get a steer on the players that are worth backing to top the scoring charts at this summer's Euro finals, it's worth surveying the history of the tournament to pick out trends that can inform your judgement and narrow down a long list of contenders into a shorter one.

History lessons

One of the first observations that stands out is that this tournament has always been a reputation maker for Golden Boot winners. Several winners had struggled to put their stamp on the global game at international level before coming of age at the finals.

In 1984, France captain Michel Platini was a Ballon d'Or winner going into the tournament thanks to his performances for Juventus, but the French public hadn't seen the best of him at the World Cup two years earlier. That all changed when he scored nine goals to lead France to glory on home soil that summer.

Four years later Marco van Basten wasn't even picked for Holland's opening game against USSR because of an injury-ravaged season at AC Milan. He started and scored a hat-trick in their next match against England, and the rest is history.

In 1996, England manager Terry Venables kept faith with Alan Shearer despite the Blackburn Rovers striker's long barren run in national team colours. Shearer was five-goal top scorer for the hosts.

Then in 2000, Savo Milosevic and Patrick Kluivert shared the Golden Boot honours - and while the latter was already an established name at club level, it was the first time either man had shone on the international stage. That was certainly true of 2004 winner Milan Baros as well.

You could argue the same applies to David Villa. He scored three times at the 2006 World Cup but his international career really took off at Euro 2008, where he finished as tournament top scorer with four goals.

Midfielders worth a look?

The only midfielders to win the award were Platini (1984), who was more of an auxiliary forward, and Henrik Larsen, one of four players tied on three goals in 1992. It's rare enough to suggest sticking with strikers would be a sensible approach in the outright market.

Midfielders are barely worth considering in the "Top Four" goalscorer market, either, as no-one would have earned you a full win since Frank Arnesen in 1984. Frank Lampard and Zinedine Zidane (2004) and Michael Ballack and Bastian Schweinsteiger (2008) would have netted you a share of a payout in the last two tournaments, but strikers have generally dominated the head of the scoring charts since the European Championship became a tournament proper in 1980.

Home advantage

Leaving out the freakish 1992 tournament, where four players topped the scoring charts with three goals each, three of eight winners since 1980 have been playing on home soil (Platini in 1984, Shearer in 1996 and Kluivert in 2000). This is a small enough number to suggest there's no point focusing on Poland and Ukraine players purely because they're at home.

A stronger trend is backing sides that, in your view, will reach the semi-finals at least. Four of the last eight winners (again, ignoring 1992) have played for the eventual winners (Klaus Allofs in 1980, Platini, van Basten and Villa), with three others (Shearer, Kluivert and Baros) turning out for sides that were beaten semi-finalists. The exception was Milosevic, who played for quarter-finalists Yugoslavia.

Shortlist

Who you have on your shortlist depends who you think will reach the semi-finals. My strongest selections are Germany, Holland, Portugal, Spain, England and France.

Looking at strikers that have yet to truly make a splash at international level, my shortlist would be: Mario Gomez 9.89/1, Robin van Persie 12.011/1, Cristiano Ronaldo 15.529/2, Karim Benzema 17.533/2, Fernando Torres 20.019/1 and Lukas Podolski 32.031/1. I would omit Wayne Rooney because he will miss England's first two games through suspension.

My main pick would be Ronaldo, as I believe Portugal have a better chance of getting out of Group B than the odds suggests. He's also the most prolific goalscorer at club level of any player in the competition.

I would also look at Robin van Persie in the 'place' (Top 4) betting as either he or Ronaldo are likely to make the quarter-finals at the very least. My third pick would be Fernando Torres, whose chances of starting regularly have markedly improved since Villa was ruled out of the finals through injury.

Best Bet: Cristiano Ronaldo @ 15.529/2
Other Recommended Bets: Robin van Persie and Fernando Torres in the Top 4 Market @ 3.814/5 and 5.14/1 respectively