Wimbledon Women's Singles Semi-Final Tips: Impressive Jabeur with underdog chances

Tunisian Tennis Player Ons Jabeur
Ons Jabeur knocked out tournament favourite Elena Rybakina...

After wins for Aryna Sabalenka and Ons Jabeur on Wednesday, the women's singles semi-finals take place at Wimbledon on Thursday. Dan Weston returns with his thoughts...

  • Rybakina joins Swiatek in exiting the tournament

  • Vondrousova favourite over Svitolina

  • Jabeur with a solid chance against Sabalenka

Sabalenka tournament favourite following Rybakina exit

Two days in a row have seen the tournament favourite eliminated from the women's singles, with Elena Rybakina following Iga Swiatek in exiting the tournament.

The consequence of this is that Aryna Sabalenka is now tournament favourite at 2.466/4, with Ons Jabeur 3.613/5 her opponent in the second semi-final of the day on Thursday.

Vondrousova v Svitolina - 13:30 - Market prefers Marketa

The two tournament outsiders meet in the first, with the market finding it tough to choose between Elina Svitolina and Marketa Vondrousova, with Vondrousova having the pre-match edge at 1.834/5, but strangely the duo are identically priced at 6.25/1 in the outright market.

Both unseeded, but clearly two of the best unseeded players in the tournament, Vondrousova has a slight edge on tournament data, particularly on return where she has impressed hugely.

Svitolina has faced tougher opposition, knocking out world number one Swiatek in the quarter-final, but could have exited in the quarter-final against Victoria Azarenka before winning 11-9 in the deciding set tiebreak.

Longer-term data also gives Vondrousova a slight edge, so the market looks justified in making her a marginal favourite to progress to her second Grand Slam final.

Jabeur v Sabalenka - 15:30 - Ons on for another big scalp

Following this, Aryna Sabalenka has the market advantage at 1.695/7 for her meeting with Ons Jabeur, in a repeat of their quarter-final here in 2021, when Sabalenka won in straight sets. She's won their last three head-to-head meetings.

After having to fight to get past Bianca Andreescu in round three, Jabeur has really impressed in the last two rounds, beating two top ten opponents in Petra Kvitova and Elena Rybakina in fairly emphatic fashion. Sabalenka has pretty much eased through into the semi-finals, with impressive victories over two big-servers in Ekaterina Alexandrova and Madison Keys.

Interestingly, a look at grass data over the last two seasons suggests Jabeur is a little undervalued by the market, and her wins against Kvitova and Rybakina inspire further confidence that the Tunisian can go one better here than last year's runner-up spot. This should be a super match, and if pushed, Jabeur looks the better value at current market prices.


New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £40 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.